Investment Musings

A ~$10bn military just deterred a ~$1tn one – no bomb, just a strait. It may be the biggest "TACO" yet: not a tariff walked back, but a war. Episode 3 of Investment Musings reads the Iran climbdown as the opening note in a much larger score. This is the audio edition of "Chokepoints". The ceasefire over Hormuz is the sideshow; the piece traces a single fault line running under...

Kevin Warsh, the new Fed chair, wants to kill inflation – and the convenient version of that story is that AI will do it for him. This week's leaked OpenAI accounts show who is actually paying: the disinflation everyone is celebrating is being sold below cost, funded by losses. And the largest loss-maker of the cycle has just chosen this moment to go public. Supply, not sentiment, tells you w...

Low volatility is not the absence of risk – it is risk moved somewhere it no longer has to be counted. This episode argues that the AI build-out is the largest version of that trade ever built. It starts with the 2018 collapse of XIV, the note that sold calm and returned 585% until it lost 96% in a single day, and traces carry – the family of trades that earn a steady income for assuming stability...