Interest.com.au Breakfast Briefing

America's labour market cooled sharply in June, and closer to home Australia posted its first trade deficit since 2018. Here's what overnight markets mean for Australian investors and borrowers. In today's Briefing: US payrolls added just 57,000 jobs in June, half the 110,000 expected Federal Reserve officials now split on the rate path ahead US factory orders fell 1.3% in May China&#3...

Markets are sceptical of the rosy outlook from America's new central bank chief. US Treasury yields rose after the Fed signalled price risks had eased, a clear sign of where investors think rates and inflation are really headed. Today's key moves: ● US 10 year Treasury yield up to 4.48% after the Federal Reserve's dovish comments ● ADP jobs survey soft at +98,000, ahead of Friday's...

A busy morning offshore, with oil and the yen leading. ● Oil continues to ease despite an unresolved Persian Gulf standoff, with the US benchmark at just on USD 69.50/bbl and Brent near USD 73/bbl. A growing Chinese EV share of global car sales is one reason markets see softer crude demand ahead. ● The Japanese yen has slipped past 162 to the US dollar, its weakest in 39 years, with a two-month in...

Your two-minute wrap of the overnight economic news that matters to Australia. In today's briefing: South Korea commits USD 520 billion with Samsung and SK Hynix to expand AI chipmaking The US claims a new Middle East truce, though Iran has not confirmed it Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey points to inflation becoming embedded China's beef demand set to underpin prices for Australian...

Your daily wrap of the overnight news that matters for the Australian economy. In today's briefing: Australian housing keeps cooling: the softest auction sales period in more than 5 years, with many properties failing to sell Fresh clashes near the Strait of Hormuz strain the fragile US and Iran ceasefire, yet oil holds near USD 69/bbl (WTI) and USD 72/bbl (Brent) China industrial profits jump...

US inflation is back in focus. In today's briefing we cover the data shaping the rate outlook and the Hormuz risk still hanging over oil. In this episode: US headline PCE inflation rose to 4.1% in May, up from 3.8% Core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge, lifted to 3.4% Firms are raising prices to recover AI spending, with MacBooks and iPads up 20% US durable goods orders fell sharply, capital...

A broad risk-off session, driven by an international agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is expected to send hundreds of tankers and cargoes back into a market where demand is already softening. Australian May CPI eased to 4.0%, a four-month low and below the 4.4% expected. The trimmed mean, however, rose to 3.6%, signalling underlying inflation is still firming. The Hormuz reopening p...

Commodity currencies are taking the strain. The Australian dollar has fallen to a seven month low of 69.2 USc as markets shift toward pricing a US rate hike, firming the US dollar across the board. Key developments today: ● Markets now betting the next move from the US Federal Reserve will be a hike, after a firmer 2 year Treasury auction and a warning from the Chicago Fed president that inflation...

A calmer geopolitical picture is taking some heat out of energy markets this morning, while the local housing story continues to soften. ● Swiss talks between the United States and Iran made progress overnight, and the US Treasury agreed to pause enforcement of sanctions on Iranian oil for at least 60 days. Oil fell around USD 4, with the US benchmark just under USD 73.50/bbl and Brent at 77.50. ●...

The week ahead will be shaped by the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran keeping the chokepoint closed and US-Iran talks in Geneva struggling for traction. Notably, oil prices eased over the week despite the tension, with US WTI back under USD 77.50/bbl. Key themes today: ● Australian data week in focus: CPI 4.3%, jobs +30,000, household spending +4.1%, all feeding the Reserve Bank of Australia's inte...

Financial markets have largely moved on from the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, but commodity markets are still digesting it. A key US concession gives Iran the ability to charge transit fees for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and tanker traffic through the chokepoint is already picking up. The overnight macro picture was mixed. US jobless claims held steady and factory sentim...

The US Federal Reserve has shifted its stance. After holding its policy rate at 3.50% to 3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting, it removed its easing bias and signalled the next move will be a hike. That marks a clear change in direction, and markets responded immediately. Today's key developments: ● The Fed lifted its core inflation forecast to 3.3% by year end and dropped its easing bias ●...

The Reserve Bank held the cash rate at 4.35% overnight in a unanimous decision that markets had fully priced. The hold arrives as Australian manufacturing momentum stalls into mid-year, with conditions slipping back to neutral and the Middle East conflict reigniting cost pressures across the sector, keeping inflation risk in view. Offshore, attention shifts to the US Federal Reserve, which meets t...

A US-Iran deal to end the war drove a relief rally across global markets overnight, lifting equities and pulling oil sharply lower. Commodity markets remain more cautious, with risk premiums expected to take months to retreat. For Australia, the standout is cheaper oil, which eases some of the imported inflation pressure the RBA has been watching. The Australian dollar firmed to 70.8 USc and the 1...

A defining week for global monetary policy is underway, with three major central bank decisions due in quick succession. The Reserve Bank leads tomorrow, where no change is expected from the current 4.35% cash rate. On Thursday, the US Federal Reserve meets for the first time under new chair Kevin Warsh, with markets expecting a hold at 3.75% even as US consumer prices run at a three-year high of...

US consumer inflation accelerated to 4.2% in May, up from 3.8% in April and its highest since April 2023, driven largely by rising fuel costs. With Washington now promising further military strikes on Iran and an expected deal off the table, oil markets are bracing for deeper disruption. US crude rose to just under USD 91.50/bbl, with Brent near USD 94.50/bbl. The inflation story is global. Japan'...

Australia's housing market is now drawing the attention of Wall Street. Bank of America has become the latest global institution to forecast a downturn, tipping Sydney and Melbourne prices to fall as much as 8% in 2026. Its economists cite higher mortgage rates weighing on borrowing capacity, alongside Federal Budget changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount dampening inve...

American one-year inflation expectations eased to 3.2% in May, retreating from April's two and a half year high of 3.5%, and sitting comfortably below the 3.8% actual inflation print. Encouraging on the surface, though the same New York Fed survey shows households expect their finances to deteriorate, and regional small businesses remain deeply pessimistic about 2026. The international picture is...

US non-farm payrolls delivered a 172,000 jobs gain in May, more than double the 82,000 expected, but the composition tells a more nuanced story. Hospitality added 70,000, local government 55,000, and healthcare 35,000, while manufacturing, IT and construction were flat to lower. Lower-paid jobs rose, higher-paid roles shrank. Combined with the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and oil holdin...

Markets are pricing in optimism that doesn't yet match the facts on the ground. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed today despite hopes of a US–Iran accommodation, with Hezbollah rejecting the framework and Israeli strikes continuing in Lebanon. The geopolitical pressure is showing up in trade flows. Global container freight rates jumped 23% in a single week, driven largely by outbound China r...

Energy markets are once again front and centre. With the Strait of Hormuz closed and clashes in the Persian Gulf intensifying, WTI crude has climbed to just over USD 96/bbl and Brent to USD 98/bbl. American crude stockpiles have now fallen for a sixth consecutive week, and US strategic reserves sit at their lowest in 22 years. Domestically, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported Q1 GDP growt...

A quiet changing of the guard is underway in global finance. Fresh ECB analysis confirms gold has overtaken US Treasuries as the largest single asset held in foreign reserves, a structural shift with long-term implications for global capital flows. Closer to home, Australia recorded its first trade deficit since 2017 in the March quarter, with mineral exports softening (gold aside) while data cent...

American consumers are the most pessimistic on record. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a historic low in May, its third consecutive monthly decline, with petrol prices and persistent cost-of-living pressures doing the damage. Year-ahead inflation expectations have risen to 4.8%, and long-run expectations have jumped from 3.5% to 3.9%. Meanwhile, the Iran-US standoff i...

Australian inflation eased in May, with the Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge falling 0.3% on lower transport and fuel costs following the excise tax rollback. The annual rate now sits at 4.4%, offering the RBA a modest data point ahead of its next decision. However, the latest Australian factory PMI shows new orders falling at their sharpest pace since October, while selling price infla...

The long-awaited correction in Australian housing is underway, and it is showing up first in our two largest markets. ● Sydney average prices dipped 0.9% in May, taking the three-month fall to 2.1%● Melbourne dropped 0.8% in May, with a 2.3% quarterly decline● Auction volumes are at six-year lows as transaction activity retreats● Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth continue to push higher Higher mortgage...