ING THINK aloud

The UK government has changed some of the provisions in its divorce agreement with the EU, putting strain on already tense relations with the bloc and threatening to undermine a trade deal. In response, investors have pushed the pound down against both the dollar and the euro. But is a trade deal really so much better than no deal at all? In this podcast, ING's Developed M arkets Economist James S...

Is the Federal Reserve encouraging a stock market bubble? Critics say a recent change to the central bank's policy framework has undesirable side effects and puts the dollar at risk. Fed member Lael Brainard admitted this week that the new policy, and consequent expectations that interest rates will stay lower for longer, could indeed entice investors to take more risk in the search for higher ret...

With less than 10 weeks to go until the US election, President Trump continues to trail Democrat rival Joe Biden in the polls. But the race is far from over. In this podcast, ING's James Knightley discusses how economic developments could affect the outcome of the vote and what the result could mean for policy, and for financial markets.

Many short-time work schemes in Europe are set to end at the turn of the year, suggesting the unemployment rate will finally start to reflect some of the huge economic damage caused by Covid-19. In this podcast ING's Carsten Brzeski tells Rebecca Byrne what he's expecting from the job market over the coming year and how this could impact the recovery.

Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, warned explicitly that the economic recovery in the US will depend on the path of Covid-19, perhaps in an effort to provide a dose of realism to buoyant equity markets. The optimism priced into stocks stands in stark contrast to the much more negative sentiment in the bond market, where Treasury yields are near record lows. In this podcast, Padhraic Garvey,...

EU leaders have agreed to issue common debt and hand it out as grants to struggling member states, in a move that some have compared to Alexander Hamilton's decision to federalise US debt. In this podcast,  ING's Senior Eurozone Economist Bert Colijn tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne what the agreement really means for future integration and discusses its implications for the economy and mark...

China’s economy is growing again. But so, too, is global pressure. The US officially rescinded Hong Kong’s special status this week while the UK is banning Huawei from its 5G network. Meanwhile, China’s relations with Canada, Australia and many of its Asian neighbours are strained by disputes over technology, trade and its pursuit of resources in the South China Sea. In this podcast, ING’s Chief E...

UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak has laid out the next phase in the government's response to the Covid-19 pandemic, as the economy reopens after a three-month lockdown and the worst slump in 300 years.  He announced measures to support the job market, as the furlough scheme is gradually wound down, cuts to VAT and property taxes as well as restaurant vouchers, to help sectors hit particularly hard b...

With 1.4 million coronavirus cases and over 60,000 deaths, Brazil now ranks as the second worst hit country in the world after the United States. But while the political response to the crisis has been controversial, its economy will not suffer as much as some of its neighbours in the region amid sharp cuts in interest rates and generous fiscal policy. In this podcast, ING's Chief Economist for La...

Covid-19 cases are still rising in the US. But so, too, are financial markets. The S&P 500 is on track for one of its best quarters ever while the Nasdaq recently hit a record high and the safe-haven dollar is selling off. In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner explains what's been driving these moves and what may lie ahead for the currency markets in the second half of the year.   

It was supposed to be the defining year of Climate Action. But the Covid-19 pandemic and economic destruction left in its wake have created an even more pressing emergency and some fear that climate action will become another casualty of the crisis. In this podcast, Mark Cliffe, Global Head of ING's New Horizons Hub, tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne what the pandemic could mean for the future of...

More severe lockdowns, weaker safety nets, smaller emergency spending programmes and structural challenges pose grave risks to the economic recovery in Southern Europe. In this podcast, ING's Senior Eurozone Economist Bert Colijn tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne why the periphery could face a more prolonged slump than the 'core' member states.

Mass protests over the police killing of George Floyd, 100,000 deaths from the coronavirus pandemic, an unprecedented economic downturn, and 40 million Americans out of work. Rarely has an election year looked this bad for a sitting US president. And yet, the outcome remains unpredictable, with no guarantee that Democrat rival Joe Biden will win in November. In this podcast, ING's Senior Editor Re...

The coronavirus, and associated lockdowns around the world, have upended all sectors of the global economy. But the car industry, which was already struggling before the pandemic, has been particularly hard hit. In this podcast, ING's Senior Economist Joanna Konings tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne how the industry has been disrupted, what the future holds for electric vehicles and whether prolon...

Lebanese protestors held a mock funeral for their local currency earlier this month after a financial crisis, exacerbated by the coronavirus, sent it into a tailspin. With other emerging markets also feeling the pain of a strong dollar, proponents of digital currencies are touting the benefits of a system run by algorithms rather than politicians and central banks. In this podcast, ING's Senior Ed...

As the US and UK move to ease lockdown measures, we look to countries that have already emerged from quarantine for clues about what to expect in the weeks ahead. In this podcast, ING's Head of Asia Pacific Research Rob Carnell discusses the lessons learned from Asia, how China is positioning itself on the world stage and whether the global recovery could be hampered by another trade war.

Unlike the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank has not yet discussed adding junk bonds to its asset purchase programme. But President Christine Lagarde has signalled that this option remains on the table. In this podcast, Jeroen van den Broek, ING's Global Head of Sector Research, tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne why he thinks the Bank will end up buying so-called 'fallen angels' and why i...

Global oil prices have recovered some ground after tanking this week to historic lows. But the outlook for crude still looks bleak. In this podcast, ING's Head of Commodities Strategy Warren Patterson tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne why prices could turn negative again next month.

European finance ministers have agreed on a €540 billion package of support for the Eurozone. But the thorny issue of debt sharing remains unresolved. Can the euro project survive without it? In this podcast, ING's Carsten Brzeski, Global Head of Macro and Chief Economist of the Eurozone, shares his thoughts with Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne.

The hospitalisation of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson adds another layer of uncertainty to the British economy, which is already suffering from an almost complete shutdown of activity. In this podcast, ING's Developed Market Economist James Smith talks to Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne about what lies ahead for the UK.

President Trump extends social distancing in the US until the end of April. But like other countries around the globe, the move to limit the spread of the virus will come at a severe economic cost. In this podcast, ING's chief international economist James Knightley discusses the potential hit to growth and possible path for recovery under four coronavirus scenarios.

After an initial panic in financial markets, signs of stability have started to emerge. There's hope the coronavirus will be contained and that stimulus measures will mitigate the economic damage. But there's no question the outbreak will take a toll on global growth. In our new podcast, THINK aloud, ING’s Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne asks Rob Carnell, head of research and chief economist of the &n...

Gross domestic product is a deeply flawed measure of economic growth. In fact, a new ING report claims that US GDP is consistently understated by 0.75% while inflation is overstated by 0.4%. In our new podcast, THINK Aloud, ING's Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne asks Chief Economist Mark Cliffe to explain what's going on and why it matters. 

Time is running out for UK lawmakers to stop a 'no deal' Brexit on October 31. In our brand new THINK aloud podcast, Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne speaks with ING economist James Smith about the options available to MPs, whether a deal can be struck at the last minute, and what all of this means for the UK economy and the pound.

Three central banks, three quite different strategies. In our brand new THINK aloud podcast, Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne explores where interest rates are heading next