ING THINK aloud

Hawks are growing louder at the US Federal Reserve. But with interest rate hikes still likely to be years away, the dollar is taking recent taper talk in stride. In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Markets Chris Turner looks at how the monetary policy debate is shifting both inside and outside the US and how global currency markets are responding. Plus, a little something on Bitcoin...  

US-China relations have worsened under the Biden Administration, with both sides openly trading barbs and Trump-era trade tariffs remaining firmly in place. In this podcast, ING's Senior Economist Joanna Konings discusses what's likely to happen next and what it could mean for world trade this year. 

India is in the grip of a particularly cruel second wave that is overwhelming hospitals and testing the endurance of a nation. In this podcast, ING's Prakash Sakpal looks at the latest developments in the pandemic and whether India's economy and markets can weather the storm. 

Ambitious new targets for cutting carbon emissions and bold spending plans have fuelled optimism about the green revolution and helped to power a rally in the raw materials that will underpin the transition. In this podcast, Warren Patterson looks at which metals will benefit the most and whether rising investment in green infrastructure could herald a supercycle for commodities.

In Asia, second and third waves of the coronavirus are raging in some countries, with India reporting more than 100,000 new cases a day over the past week. Yet the region overall has coped better with the crisis than its peers in the West and the IMF this week raised its forecast for the Asia-Pacific economy in 2021. In this podcast, ING's Rob Carnell explains why the pandemic has been more contai...

Far from being the 'Great Equaliser,' Covid-19 has magnified socio-economic differences across Europe, exposing fault lines both between and within countries. In this podcast, ING's Julien Manceaux and Franziska Biel discuss their latest research on rising inequality in the labour market, which they say poses a threat to European cohesion.    

The European Commission is calling for tougher controls on vaccine exports, as the bloc struggles with a third wave of the virus and criticism over its handling of the vaccine rollout. The vaccination programme has been hindered by a slower authorisation process, delayed deliveries and suspensions over fears of possible side effects. In this podcast, ING’s Carsten Brzeski looks at how rising infec...

President Joe Biden says his $1.9 trillion pandemic rescue plan, for the first time, prioritises working- and middle-class Americans. But US household wealth has surged throughout the pandemic, with increases in savings spread more broadly across the income spectrum compared to Europe, as ING's James Knightley explains in this podcast.  

The European Central Bank is stepping up the pace of asset purchases in response to rising bonds yields, which have threatened to undermine the eurozone’s economic recovery. German bund yields rose to the highest level in a year last month while French 10-year bond yields climbed above zero for the first time since June. Eurozone bond markets have been tracking a rise in US Tre...

UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak is going where few finance ministers have gone before in the Covid-19 pandemic, announcing future tax hikes to pay for relief measures. Those measures, which were extended in Wednesday’s Budget, have pushed government borrowing to record levels. Without corrective action, Sunak said, underlying debt would rise indefinitely. And while borrowing costs are affordable now, he...

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sent a message to nervous bond markets this week: calm down. But are traders and investors listening? 10-year Treasury yields have continued their march higher on hopes for an economic recovery, sparking concern that the move could eventually spiral into a so-called 'taper tantrum' similar to that seen in 2013. In this podcast, ING's...

In economic terms, the second wave of the pandemic in Europe has been less severe than the first. Official lockdowns have been less harsh and more targeted, according to EU Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni. But new ING research shows that other forces may be at work as well, including lower levels of voluntary social distancing. In this podcast, ING's Bert Colijn discusses whether t...

It gave B.B. King  the blues . And Larry Summers is getting worried about it, too. Inflation in the US is set to rise in the coming months, fuelled by an economic reawakening and massive fiscal stimulus. Will the Federal Reserve be forced to respond? In this podcast, ING's James Knightley takes a look.

The World Health Organization says vaccine hoarding would be a catastrophic moral failure that would keep the pandemic burning and result in a very slow global economic recovery. Yet many emerging markets still find themselves at the back of the vaccine queue, heaping further pressure on countries that are already suffering from high debt levels, soaring unemployment and growing social unrest. Unt...

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this week that the Bank is monitoring the corporate bond market, where spreads have narrowed to levels seen before the pandemic and yields on some of the riskiest debt are trading near historic lows. In this podcast, ING’s Jeroen van den Broek says the market is ‘very expensive’ and investors are underestimating the level of risk.

Optimism surrounding the Covid vaccine coupled with a crude oil production cut from Saudi Arabia have lifted the price of Brent by about 7% since the start of the year, adding to a 25% surge in the last three months of 2020. But with many economies still in full lockdown, demand for oil is expected to be weak over the next few months while higher prices could encourage some producers to pump more...

With a new variant of Covid-19 spreading rapidly across the UK, schools, non-essential retail, pubs and restaurants have been forced to shut until the middle of February, when priority groups are expected to have been vaccinated and measures can be eased. In response to the national lockdown, Chancellor Rishi Sunak has announced a £4.6 billion relief package but many businesses fear that...

With just two weeks to go before the Brexit transition period comes to an end, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen still haven’t agreed on the terms of a future relationship. But there’s little sign of panic in financial markets. News that the negotiations will continue past the Sunday deadline and signs that the mood has become slightly more conci...

UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak has laid the groundwork for tackling Britain's unprecedented surge in borrowing, which is set to hit a peacetime record of almost £400 billion this year. But is it too soon to be worrying about the spiralling debt load? In this podcast, ING's Padhraic Garvey shares his thoughts

President-elect Joe Biden says the Trump administration’s refusal to concede the election will not affect the transition of power. But could this lack of cooperation be a harbinger of things to come? Unless Democrats can secure two Senate seats in Georgia in a January run-off, Republicans will retain control of the upper chamber, constraining Biden’s ability to push through his economic agenda and...

President Trump's 'America First' policy has been criticised by rival Joe Biden as an isolationist strategy that has left America alone in the world, turning former allies into adversaries. The European Union may be a case in point. Faced with threats of tariffs and sanctions, trade relations have soured in recent years, with Trump calling Europe a "foe" which is "almost as bad as China". In this...

New lockdown measures to stem the spread of the virus in Europe are threatening to plunge the region back into recession after a brief respite over the summer, while disputes among policymakers risk delaying much-needed stimulus. In this podcast, ING's Bert Colijn discusses the outlook for the region in the fourth quarter and beyond.    

With more Americans than ever voting by mail in the November election, and President Trump's warning that the final outcome may not be known for months, the spectre of a delayed result is still a risk to financial markets despite Joe Biden's current lead in the polls. High yield bonds - sometimes considered to be the canary in the coal mine for broader risk assets - are starting to wobble, with th...

A recent increase in the number of Covid-19 cases and new lockdown measures to stem the spread of the virus have sparked concern that demand for oil could be hit at a time when supply is picking up. In this podcast, ING's Warren Patterson discusses the outlook for oil prices, what OPEC+ may do next and how the US presidential election could play a role. 

The Covid-19 pandemic has ripped through the developing world this year with particular cruelty and ferocity, upending lives and livelihoods on a scale never seen before. But in markets, at least, signs of hope have started to emerge. In this podcast, ING's Emerging Market Sovereign Debt Strategist Trieu Pham takes a look at what the future holds for some of the hardest-hit countries in the w...