inFocus with David Coletto

As 2026 begins, Canadian politics looks familiar on the surface but the dynamics underneath are shifting. In this episode of Infocus , Abacus Data CEO David Coletto breaks down his firm's latest national poll showing the Liberals and Conservatives tied, with voters still cautious about the country’s direction and deeply uncertain about the global environment. Affordability remains the top issue, b...

In this special post-election episode of inFocus with David Coletto , David breaks down the surprising results of Canada’s 45th general election. Just three months after entering politics, Mark Carney has led the Liberals to a fourth consecutive mandate—this time as a minority government—defeating Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives in a much tighter race than expected. David reflects on how the camp...

Tomorrow, Canadians head to the polls after a 40-day campaign that turned the political landscape upside down. In this special election preview episode of inFocus with David Coletto , David breaks down Abacus Data’s final poll results, offering insights into how the race shifted from a likely Conservative win to a competitive contest now favouring the Liberals under Mark Carney. David explores the...

With just days left before Canadians head to the polls, David Coletto breaks down the latest Abacus Data polling and what it tells us about where the 2025 federal election stands. In this episode of inFocus with David Coletto , David unpacks why the Liberals continue to hold a modest lead over the Conservatives, despite a strong public desire for change. He explores how Mark Carney’s personal appe...

In this episode of inFocus , David Coletto unpacks one of the most surprising shifts of the 2025 federal election: how fear of disruption—what he calls disruptophobia —has flipped the campaign narrative on its head. What began as a change election defined by frustration with the Liberals has become a search for stability in an uncertain world. David explains how Mark Carney’s rise, Donald Trump’s...

With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, the latest Abacus Data poll finds the federal race tightening. In this episode of inFocus with David Coletto , David unpacks the key findings from a new survey conducted just ahead of the French and English leaders’ debates. He explores why the Liberal lead has shrunk from six to just two points, how a resurgence in the desire for change is benefi...

In this episode of inFocus with David Coletto , we explore the dramatic collapse in support for the NDP in the 2025 federal election. Based on our latest Abacus Data survey, the NDP has seen its committed vote plummet from around 18% to just 9%. We dive into the reasons behind this significant shift, examining the two key groups of voters—those still loyal to the NDP and those who are now voting L...

With just two weeks to go before Canadians head to the polls, David Coletto dives into one of the most remarkable trends of the 2025 federal election campaign: Prime Minister Mark Carney’s rising favourability numbers. Drawing on the latest Abacus Data polling, David explores why Carney is not just leading in vote intention—but also winning the hearts of Canadians across regions, age groups, and e...

In this episode of InFocus with David Coletto , David breaks down the latest Abacus Data poll conducted entirely after Donald Trump’s surprise announcement of reciprocal tariffs. With just under two weeks left in the federal campaign, the Liberals have surged into a six-point lead over the Conservatives—marking the first statistically significant advantage they’ve held since the campaign began. Da...

In this episode of InFocus with David Coletto , David dives into new Abacus Data polling that shows a high level of engagement among Canadian voters and examines why this heightened attention could shape the outcome of the upcoming leaders’ debates. With the Liberals and Conservatives tied at 39% support, the stakes for these debates—scheduled for April 16 (French) and April 17 (English)—couldn’t...

In this episode of InFocus with David Coletto , David shares the results of Abacus Data’s latest polling—conducted from March 31 to April 3—capturing where voters stood just before Donald Trump’s surprise “Liberation Day” tariff announcement. David breaks down the key highlights: the ongoing tie between the Liberals and Conservatives, the surge in Conservative voter motivation, the Liberals’ deepe...

In this episode of InFocus with David Coletto , we examine President Donald Trump’s latest tariff announcement—and Canada’s unexpected exclusion from it. David unpacks fresh polling data on who Canadians trust more to stand up to Trump: Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals, or Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. With previously announced tariffs still in play, the stakes remain high for...

In this episode of InFocus with David Coletto , I dig into why the Liberals—now led by Prime Minister Mark Carney—are currently the favourites in this federal election campaign. Using advanced analysis from a binary logistic regression model, I break down what’s really driving support for the Liberal Party. We explore how voters’ priorities—like concern about Donald Trump versus anxiety over the c...

In this episode of inFocus with David Coletto , David breaks down the first week of Canada’s high-stakes election campaign and explains why a sudden pivot to confront Donald Trump may not be the smartest strategic move for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party. Drawing on the latest polling data—originally presented at the Empire Club and widely discussed in the media—David explores why the...

In this episode of inFocus with David Coletto , we dive into Abacus Data’s third poll of the 2025 Canadian election. David breaks down why Liberals and Conservatives are now tied at 39%, how Liberal support edges higher among those most committed to voting, and the demographic shifts reshaping the race. Plus, hear why Donald Trump’s presidency and the cost-of-living crisis are battling it out to b...

In this episode of InFocus with David Coletto , we dive into fresh survey data revealing why Canadians say they’ll vote Liberal or Conservative in the current federal election. David unpacks the two distinct visions for the country, from those who trust a new Liberal leader to stand up to U.S. trade threats and safeguard social programs, to those rallying behind a Conservative call for change, low...

Mark Carney has called the 2025 federal election and the race is on. In this episode of InFocus, David Coletto dissects new Abacus Data poll numbers showing a close contest between Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, while Jagmeet Singh’s NDP struggles to gain traction. Learn which regions matter most, which issues will define the campaign, and how volatile voter preferences co...

In this episode of InFocus with David Coletto , we break down the looming Canadian federal election—from Justin Trudeau’s surprise exit and Pierre Poilievre’s stalled vision, to Donald Trump’s game-changing threats and Mark Carney’s sudden rise to prime minister. Tune in for a concise, data-driven guide to the factors reshaping Canadian politics right now.

In this episode of inFocus with David Coletto , we explore how Sun Tzu’s classic principles from The Art of War apply to Canada’s upcoming election. Discover why the Conservatives want to wage battle over cost-of-living while the Liberals prefer to focus on the “Trump factor,” and learn how each party is working to define the campaign on their own terms.

In this episode of inFocus with David Coletto, we break down our newest poll revealing how Canadians view Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre—two relatively fresh contenders gearing up for an expected federal election. Join David as he unpacks the data behind each leader’s strengths, vulnerabilities, and perceived policy positions, and explores why a significant gro...

In this episode of inFocus , I dive into the latest political landscape now that Mark Carney is Prime Minister and an election call looms and unpacks Abacus Data's latest poll released earlier today. Discover how the Liberals have rapidly closed the gap with the Conservatives, why Donald Trump remains a polarizing force in Canadian politics, and what these shifts mean for the road ahead. Don't for...

On August 30, the Globe and Mail published an editorial highlighting the fact that Canada’s foreign aid spending is in decline – again. They wrote, after noting that Canada’s defence spending is no where near the NATO target, “there’s a similar yet lesser known international yardstick on which Canada also falls well below the collective goal: spending 0.7 per cent of gross national income on offic...

In this episode, host David Coletto briefs on the latest Abacus Data poll that finds the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals by 12-points and a majority of Canadians feeling the Prime Minister shouldn't run in the next election. You can subscribe to his substack at davidcoletto.substack.com and find more research over on the Abacus Data website - abacusdata.ca

In this episode, host David Coletto delves into the contentious issue of immigration in Canada. He discusses his recent article "Would a Leader Who Promises to Reduce Immigration Win Votes?", revealing the findings of his public opinion survey on immigration attitudes. With data suggesting a majority of Canadians are in favor of reducing immigration levels, David explores the implications for poli...

In this episode of inFocus, pollster David Coletto shares his perspective on the final Abacus Data poll released earlier this morning (Sunday) on the Alberta provincial election. Full details of the poll can be accessed on the  Abacus Data website.