In The Tranches of Structured Finance

Student debt is back at record highs, but the headline number does not tell the full story. In this episode of In the Tranches of Structured Finance, Vadim Verkhoglyad breaks down dv01’s latest research on the federal student loan market and what the data reveals about the forces reshaping borrower balances and repayment outcomes. Tune in for insights on: Why borrowers over 50 have seen balances g...

Are consumers actually holding up—or are cracks starting to form beneath the surface? In this episode of In the Tranches of Structured Finance , Vadim Verkhoglyad returns to break down what the latest data is really saying across consumer credit markets—and where the narrative doesn’t match reality. We cover:  Why consumer unsecured continues to outperform , with record-high cure rates and strong...

In this episode, Vadim revisits a question first explored three years ago: are younger American households actually struggling—or are the headlines missing the real story? Drawing from dv01’s latest research publication, Are the Kids Still All Right? , the discussion cuts through recession narratives to examine income growth, debt dynamics, education outcomes, housing constraints, and spending beh...

In this episode of In the Tranches of Structured Finance , Vadim addresses follow-up questions from dv01’s recent consumer credit webinar and provides an updated view on consumer credit performance across key markets—focusing on what the data is actually signaling for investors. Key themes include: Late-2024 consumer unsecured vintages: Why early performance comparisons—especially across credit ti...

In this episode, Vadim takes a deep dive into the auto finance market—from the recent headlines surrounding Tricolor’s bankruptcy to the broader trends shaping credit performance and origination behavior. The conversation begins with Tricolor as a case study in data integrity and verification failures , not credit weakness, before widening to examine insights from the CFPB and Experian’s State of...

In this episode, Vadim takes a wide-angle look at U.S. household finances, combining the latest TransUnion credit trends with the Federal Reserve’s Distribution of Financial Accounts ("DFA"). He unpacks how early 2024’s spike in delinquencies has given way to broad improvement, why certain regions like Utah, DC, and Texas are worth watching, and what’s really behind shifts in credit card...

In this episode of In the Tranches of Structured Finance , Vadim revisits the standout questions from dv01’s recent consumer credit webinar with Jefferies, Upgrade, and Prosper—digging deeper into the state of the consumer, credit performance trends, origination behavior, and refinancing dynamics. Vadim also introduces dv01’s new Closed-End Seconds Benchmark, spotlighting its relevance in today’s...

In this episode, Vadim takes a deep dive into dv01’s latest insights on the housing market, with a focus on affordability metrics and what they signal for both borrowers and investors. Vadim breaks down: How dv01’s unique affordability metric—covering over 2,900 U.S. counties—captures real-time changes in mortgage costs, taxes, and insurance. Why Florida’s affordability improved despite an ongoing...

In this episode of In the Tranches of Structured Finance , Vadim Verkhoglyad breaks down recent credit performance and origination trends across consumer unsecured, subprime auto, and non-QM mortgages. Tune in for insights on: Strong recovery in consumer unsecured performance Plateauing trends in subprime auto, with rising loss severity Worsening impairments in non-QM despite limited losses Minima...

In the latest podcast episode, Vadim covers notable improvements in consumer unsecured loan performance, recovery patterns in subprime auto, and challenges in the Non-QM mortgage market. He discusses the influence of seasonal trends, regional performance disparities, and how tightening credit standards impact both new and seasoned loans. Tune in to understand the current credit landscape, learn wh...

In today's episode, Vadim provides a comprehensive discussion on housing affordability, the impact of rising insurance premiums, and a surprising increase in mortgage counts, despite economic headwinds. Vadim highlights essential insights on LTV and DTI ratios in recent originations, alongside the evolving role of insurance costs on market stability, especially in regions like Florida. As pre...

In this episode, Vadim dives into the financial condition of U.S. households, exploring the nuances behind household balance sheets, consumer debt, and the surprising resilience of Gen Z and millennials. He unpacks the contrast between media narratives and the actual financial positions of American households, highlighting the significant growth in net worth, especially among lower-income groups....

Vadim examines TransUnion data to discuss YoY trends in credit cards and auto loans. While subprime borrowers continue to drive overall DQ rates and credit card growth, regional analysis reveals significant weaker performance in certain states. In this episode, Vadim dives into a valuable metric, Average Excess Payment ("AEP"), which is an indicator of a consumer's ability to manage...

Vadim dives into housing affordability, focusing on the impact of rising insurance payments—particularly in Florida, the impact of FEMA's updated risk scores on insurance premiums trends,  mortgage volume and the implications of low existing home sales and inventory levels, and overall mortgage performance behavior. Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Conta...

In this episode, Vadim is joined by Matt Edgar, Founder & CEO of Edgar Matthews & Co, a  full-service, independent investment and merchant bank focused on the middle market. The pair discuss market observations in asset-backed lending, focusing on the complementary roles of private and public asset-based lending markets, and the increasing interest from insurance investors in asset-based f...

In the latest podcast episode, we explore a novel method of analyzing government debt, highlighting how, despite rising federal debt, the aggregate U.S. debt as a percentage of GDP fell from 2006 to 2019 and only increased in 2020 due to substantial pandemic-related fiscal measures. This holistic perspective also reveals that while U.S. asset values have significantly outpaced debt growth, the deb...

In this episode, Vadim is joined by Adelina Grozdanova, Co-Founder of Upgrade, to discuss all things consumer credit and the American consumer. Discussion includes, factors behind the dramatic volume declines of unsecured personal loans, how the record-high US credit card rates create opportunity to refinance using installment loans, and how Upgrade is positioning itself as a leading fintech by of...

dv01's quarterly update on consumer credit performance continues. Vadim looks at data through September 30, 2023 and discusses trends in Consumer Unsecured (outside of credit cards), Autos, and Mortgages. Cited Research  dv01 : Non-QM Performance Report, October 2023 dv01 : Consumer Unsecured and Subprime Auto Performance Report, October 2023 Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date...

The RMBS market, specifically Non-QM, is showing signs of recovery and growth following the COVID-19 pandemic. Amid rising rates, Non-QM is facing unique challenges and opportunities not present in the broader mortgage market. The upswing in mortgage rates has led the origination channel to shift its focus towards Non-QM, providing a favorable tailwind for future sector growth and market penetrati...

dv01's quarterly update on consumer credit performance continues. Vadim looks at data through June 30, 2023 and discusses trends in Consumer Unsecured (outside of credit cards), Autos, and Mortgages, including: The Consumer Unsecured sector continue to tighten its credit box, with more lending going to borrowers with higher creditworthiness. Performance of Subprime Auto loans continues to wor...

Understanding the factors driving regional affordability—supply and demand imbalances, zoning restrictions, building regulations, economic opportunities, culture, and climate—is crucial for portfolio and risk valuation. In this episode, dv01 argues that affordability challenges are far more regionally concentrated than they've ever been. Cited Research dv01 : Housing Affordability and Portfol...

Did you know that in Q1-2023, stocks for all the large credit card companies went up, despite missing EPS on higher provisions? In today’s episode, Vadim welcomes special guest John Hecht, a managing director at Jefferies, to discuss Q1-2023 trends, if the banking crisis has dented consumer credit growth, analysis that the market is misunderstanding, and more. Subscribe to our free research to sta...

Did you know nearly 50% of outstanding student debt is a result of graduate school? In this episode, dv01 examines the debt and wage trends across age cohorts—namely Gen Z and Millennials—highlighting wage growth, homeownership, and student debt levels. Cited research is found below. Cited Research: dv01 : The Kids Might Be...All Right? Examining the Economic Landscape of America's Youngest G...

In this episode, dv01 evaluates consumer credit performance across Consumer Unsecured (outside of credit cards), Autos, and Mortgages. Trends are predominately over the past 12 months, but also highlight historical performance and some origination trends. Cited research is found below. Cited Research: dv01 : The Kids Might Be...All Right? Examining the Economic Landscape of America's Youngest...

The U.S. Personal Saving Rate is a highly cited source for understanding consumers' balance sheet—but is it really indicative of consumers' overall financial health? In this episode, dv01 dives into The Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts ("DFA") to understand what consumer balance sheets look like today, whether consumers' finances have deteriorated o...