Helm Talks - energy climate infrastructure & more

As another heatwave grips the UK and much of Europe, we need to look beyond the immediate discomfort of hot weather and ask why existing policies are failing to dent the relentless rise in the carbon concentration in the atmosphere. More wind farms and solar panels are not going to crack the problem. Climate policy must be judged not by good intentions, but by its real-world costs, impacts and glo...

With the renewed political enthusiasm for nationalisation, what, in practical terms, does it mean and what would actually change? How might “Manchesterism” apply in practice? Using buses, rail, water and electricity as examples, in this podcast I argue that public ownership and public control are not the same thing, and that different sectors require different models of organisation, regulation an...

Politicians have been seeking for decades to put right the infrastructure crisis in this country that is rooted not in a lack of ambition, but in deeper economic and political constraints. Building in Britain is exceptionally costly, with high energy prices, high labour costs and high financing costs making major projects difficult to deliver at scale. At the same time, the country saves too littl...

The International Energy Agency describes the current Iran conflict as the “biggest energy crisis in history”. While oil prices have risen sharply, they remain below the real highs of past shocks. However, the impact is being felt very differently around the world, with some countries even benefiting from the situation. For example, the US and Russia are relatively well placed as major producers,...

The concept of a zero-sum game was fashionable in the 1970s. The idea was simple: competing interest groups, and especially unions, would fight for ever-bigger shares of the nation’s cake, and their gains would mean losses to others. Fast forward to 2026, and what we have now is a negative-sum game: cake for some reduces the cake for others, and reduces the size of the cake. The result is lower ec...

There is no such thing as a free lunch, and there is no such thing as “free” electricity. What is true is that there are going to be days in summer when supply exceeds demands and hence the value of electricity generated will be zero. Surpluses arise because a renewables-based system needs far more total generating capacity to guarantee supply at all times, including when the sun is not shining an...

Another day and another bit of sticky plaster is applied. With the highest industrial energy prices in the developed world, the government is increasing the number of companies that will get a bit off their bills in 2027. This follows other moves, like the £150 off customer bills. It will not be enough, given the sheer scale of the problems. The industrial crisis will go on; domestic bills are sch...

The news is very much about gas price shocks, but this is to misunderstand the fundamental difference between temporary shocks and long-term trends. Gas prices spike when major geopolitical events occur (e.g. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz), but then often fall sharply afterwards. Such fluctuations are nothing new and should be expected, but they don’t prove t...

Britain is facing a deep industrial energy price crisis, with many major industries collapsing or shrinking because UK electricity costs are among the highest in the world. Recent closures—from refineries to steel, fertilizer, and fibreglass plants—show how uncompetitive energy prices have already pushed firms out, long before the latest geopolitical price spikes made things worse. The core issue...

The International Energy Agency, at its recent ministerial meeting (Feb 18th/19th), agreed on one top priority: energy security. Hybrid warfare, cyber-attacks and the ease with which modern energy infrastructure can be disrupted underscore the urgency of the issue. The UK’s current approach – reducing domestic gas production, increasing reliance on imported LNG (liquefied natural gas), depending h...

Several key industries have fallen back to production levels last seen in the 1950s. Car production has dropped to its 1952 level at around 700,000 vehicles a year—down by nearly 1 million in a decade—while steel is a shadow of its former output. Even cement is falling back, being increasingly switched to imports. Housebuilding is far below its 1950s’ and 1960s’ levels. The fertiliser industry has...

Many people in the Labour Party support bringing utilities like water (in particular, Thames Water) and electricity transmission back into public ownership. Supporters often present nationalisation as a simple fix: no greedy investors, no dividends, and lower bills. But, in reality, nationalisation is far more complicated and involves real trade-offs that are often glossed over. Financial risks of...

As 2026 begins, and people look ahead to what it might bring, this podcast focuses on the likely, more profound, economic and geopolitical shifts expected by 2030 – now less than five years’ away. Immediate questions revolve around UK elections, leadership changes, and ongoing conflicts like Ukraine and Taiwan, but infrastructure, technology and economic planning require a longer-term perspective....

Why is it that this government, and its predecessors, find economic growth so hard to attain? In the UK, growth remains stubbornly low for a number of reasons, and these are not the ones that the government is currently blaming. First, governments avoid hard choices and spread resources too thinly. As Tony Blair said to me many years ago, politicians prefer to have "and" over "or" – in his case, n...

There are five major lessons from COP30. They are not the ones the climate community has highlighted, but they really matter and will shape the post-COP30 climate change negotiations. First up is the realisation that it is no longer a European (and UK) game. The shifts in world political and economic power for the first time sidelined the Europeans. There was no UK “climate change leadership” to b...

As the Chancellor gears up to deliver the Autumn Budget next week, let’s look behind the headlines at the reality of what is going on with the UK’s economy and lack of growth. Despite what the current government argues (not very different from the previous incumbents), the UK’s economic stagnation is not so much due to a lack of new infrastructure projects or excessive regulation, but rather the c...

British energy policy, once heralded as a pathway to cheap, secure and decarbonised power, has instead resulted in some of the highest energy costs globally. Despite the optimism of Ed Miliband and before him, Boris Johnson, Britain’s energy system is heavily dependent on foreign supply chains, finance and ownership. The shift to intermittent renewables like wind and solar has doubled infrastructu...

The UK’s infrastructure costs are amongst the highest globally, making ambitious projects—like new nuclear plants, HS2, and airport expansions—extremely expensive. Hinkley and Sizewell nuclear stations together may end up costing more than the original full costs of HS2, and a new Heathrow runway could reach £40 billion. Even basic upgrades, like sewage tanks and reservoirs, are far pricier than e...

Few people have much good to say about the water industry, and the blame game is fully engaged. But what to do? There are four possible options: continue with minimal reform; implement the recommendations of the recent Independent Commission on Water, led by Sir Jon Cunliffe; nationalise the industry; or adopt a catchment-based regulatory model. The Cunliffe Commission advocates: abolishing Ofwat,...

Why when solar and wind are supposed to be nine times cheaper than gas are electricity prices in the UK amongst the highest in the world? Why when the UK is supposed to be a fast track to this promised cheap net zero electricity by 2030 are large industrial users struggling? Why is Grangemouth in trouble? Why is the steel industry in such bad shape that it has be bailed out and nationalised? Why h...

In the mid-2030s, historians may look back and note that, despite numerous COP meetings and agreements like the Paris Agreement, global carbon emissions continued to rise, with significant contributions from countries like India, China, and Indonesia. The world failed to meet the 1.5°C target, making 2°C and even 3°C more likely. In this podcast, Dieter Helm looks at why the COP process has not de...

The UK’s national debt now stands at around 100% of GDP, meaning that the country has borrowed the equivalent of an entire year’s economic output. Under current fiscal rules, the government aims to stop borrowing for day-to-day spending by 2030, but borrowing for investment is exempt from these limits. This creates a loophole: by reclassifying current spending as “investment”, the Chancellor can c...

The economic outlook for the UK is bleaker than the government would have us believe. The government's ambition to be the fastest-growing economy in the G7 by 2030 faces significant challenges. Starmer and Reeves blame the Conservatives for the current economic mess, citing a £20–£22 billion gap. They argue that, once constraints are addressed, the government will push towards net zero and build 1...

How have investors managed to turn Thames Water, despite its extraordinary debt, inefficiency and poor performance, into a company that offers rich financial rewards, at least for some? The roots of this began with the privatisation of water in England and Wales in 1989. At the time, the sector was in need of significant repairs to its infrastructure, and privatisation promised renewed assets and...

The recent fire at an electricity substation shut Heathrow Airport for 24 hours, causing chaos in the skies and across international airports. In doing so, it highlighted the broader critical condition of the UK’s major infrastructure and its lack of resilience. “Just in time” and “just enough” have replaced secure, ready and prepared. The incident at Heathrow prompted calls for inquiries, in the...