Good Returns

Trump Accounts launched on July 4th and parents have been asking about them ever since. In the Planning Room, Matt and Garrett walk through everything you need to know — who qualifies for the $1,000 federal deposit, how contributions work, the employer matching angle most people haven't heard about yet, and how these accounts compare to a 529. They also cover a Federal Reserve that's genuinely div...

Q2 was a strong quarter for markets — one of the best in years. But Q2 was also recovery from a difficult Q1, and the full picture is more nuanced than the headline numbers suggest. Matt and Garrett do their quarterly deep dive: why oil falling was the story that drove everything else, why gold declining during an inflation spike is actually a meaningful signal, what's behind the historic semicond...

The Strait of Hormuz is reopening. Oil is back to $70 — erasing the entire war premium. May's inflation print came in hot, but bond investors already looked through it as yields fell. The thesis Matt has been holding since late February is essentially complete. Matt and Garrett close that chapter this week — clearly, honestly, and with the context that the timeline was messier than expected but th...

Oil fell 13% on a ceasefire framework announcement. Kevin Warsh held his first Fed press conference and signaled the end of the dot plot era. SpaceX completed the largest IPO in recorded history. And this morning, the ceasefire framework was paused as Israel continued bombing Lebanon and Iran disputed the terms. Matt and Garrett recorded this episode in real time — covering the week honestly, incl...

Two bumpy weeks to start June, inflation at a three-year high, and a Fed meeting next week that could set the direction for the rest of 2026. Matt and Garrett dig into what's actually happening beneath the headlines — including why the pullback is narrower than it looks and why the inflation number is more nuanced than the headline suggests. The Planning Room this week is one of the most practical...

The S&P 500 returned 5.3% in May. Strip out technology and the rest of the index was slightly negative. The equal-weight version of the same 500 companies returned 2% to 3%. The gap between the headline number and what most portfolios actually experienced was one of the widest in recent memory — and it tells you something important about the rally we're in. Matt and Garrett get into what's dri...

Nine consecutive weeks of gains and all-time highs across the board — but GDP was revised down to 1.6% and PCE inflation hit a three-year high on the same morning. The word stagflation showed up. Matt and Garrett take it seriously without catastrophizing it. Matt's thesis that oil drives the inflation story got some vindication this week as yields reversed lower alongside falling oil prices. Garre...

Eight consecutive weeks of gains. Treasury yields at near two-decade highs, the Fed explicitly putting rate hikes on the table, and Nvidia reporting $81.6 billion in quarterly revenue — up 85% year over year. The equity market is proving more resilient than the backdrop suggests. Matt is holding his thesis that rates are heading lower eventually. Garrett isn't so sure about the timeline. They find...

Consumer prices hit a three-year high. Wholesale prices surged 6%. Today is Jerome Powell's last day as Fed Chair, and Kevin Warsh takes over into one of the more complicated inflation environments the Fed has faced in years. Matt had been holding firm that oil falls and inflation fades. This week's data pushed back on that timeline — and Garrett noticed. That conversation is worth a listen. In th...

Six consecutive weeks of gains, the Nasdaq up 4%, and reports of a framework agreement that could finally close the chapter on the conflict. Good week on the scoreboard. Matt and Garrett dig into what's actually driving it — and where the risks are hiding. The AI capital spending numbers from big tech are remarkable. But the more interesting conversation is what those numbers mean for the industry...

April ended at all-time highs. The S&P gained 10%, the Nasdaq surged 15%, and corporate America posted its highest profit margins on record. It also ended with the Strait of Hormuz still closed, the naval blockade still in place, and Jerome Powell — who said he'd step aside once the DOJ investigation was resolved — now saying he's planning to stay. Matt and Garrett don't agree on the inflation...

Four consecutive positive weeks. Two all-time highs in a row. And underneath — oil back above $100, peace talks canceled, and the Fed meeting next week with Powell's second-to-last press conference. Matt and Garrett break down a week where the headline and the fine print told very different stories. They don't fully agree on how much the Warsh confirmation uncertainty changes the rate outlook. Tha...

The S&P 500 just hit a new all-time high above 7,000 — completing an 11-session V-shaped recovery from a nearly 10% drawdown. The week started with a naval blockade of Iranian ports. It ended at a record. Matt and Garrett dig into what that tells you about how markets actually work — and why the explanation isn't as contradictory as it sounds. In the Planning Room: should you invest when the m...

After weeks of bad news, this one's different. A confirmed ceasefire sent stocks surging and oil plunging — but Matt and Garrett aren't ready to call it resolved. The agreement was being tested before the week was even over, and this weekend's talks will determine whether it sticks. They don't fully agree on how much to trust the rally. That conversation is worth a listen. In the Planning Room: in...

At the start of the year, markets were at all-time highs and investors were expecting multiple rate cuts. Three months later the picture looks completely different. In this special quarterly episode, Matt and Garrett do a full review of Q1 2026 — what drove the volatility, why the headline number doesn't tell the whole story, and what they're watching heading into Q2. This one's a longer conversat...

The market had hope on Monday. By Friday it was gone. Matt and Garrett dig into what actually happened — and why understanding the difference between noise and news has never mattered more for your portfolio. This week they don't agree on oil. Matt thinks the volatility is largely a nothing burger for long-term investors. Garrett isn't so sure. That conversation is worth a listen. In the Planning...

In this episode, Garrett and Matt dig into the pulse of today’s markets. From recent shifts on Wall Street to the growing impact of artificial intelligence in the workplace, they unpack what investors need to know right now. The conversation explores how AI is beginning to reshape entire industries, raising important questions about the future of employment and long-term investment strategies. The...

Garrett and Matt are back after a summer break to tackle what's been moving the markets — and what might be coming next. They break down last week’s market pullback, what’s driving gold and crypto higher, and why small caps are still lagging. Plus, they dive into the evolving role of Bitcoin in modern portfolios, the challenges of traditional bond allocations, and how the Federal Reserve’s dual ma...

On this week's Momentum Mondays, Matt and Garrett dive into Moody’s latest credit rating downgrade of U.S. debt, aligning it with other major rating agencies. Is this a sign that market volatility is easing, or are we just experiencing a temporary break? They also discuss recent bond market moves, explore what’s driving Fed speculation, and highlight key economic indicators investors need to monit...

Markets had a strong week, but the headlines didn’t tell the full story. Garrett and Matt dig into last week’s performance, the surprising negative GDP print, and what it all means for investors. From rising interest rates to the growing influence of tech and shifts in market breadth, they explore the signals, the noise, and how to stay grounded in a changing economic landscape.

Markets roared back last week, and in this episode of Momentum Mondays, Matt and Garrett break down the sharp rally across major indexes, the rare Zweig Breadth Thrust signal that was just triggered, and what it could mean for investors going forward. They also preview the major economic data releases to watch this week, including GDP, jobs numbers, and inflation reports. Plus, a quick conversatio...

After a choppy week in the markets, Garrett and Matt return with a breakdown of where things stand — and where they could be headed. In this episode of Momentum Mondays , they spotlight the Russell 2000’s relative strength, explore why small caps often lead out of downturns, and unpack the latest inflation data and its broader economic implications. The conversation also turns to the recent pullba...

Markets rallied last week on the back of tariff relief headlines—but is the bounce built to last? In this week’s episode of Momentum Mondays , Garrett and Matt break down the strong moves across the major indexes, then turn their focus to the bond market, where signals aren’t nearly as optimistic. From yield curve inversions to rising Treasury yields and reduced foreign demand, we explore what fix...

Markets Tumble—Here’s What That Means for Your Money It was one of the worst weeks for stocks in years. In this episode of Momentum Mondays , we unpack what triggered the selloff, why weeks like this are rare—but not unheard of—and how we’re adjusting behind the scenes. Our momentum-based framework is signaling change—and we’re leaning into it with discipline, not emotion. Tune in for a clear, no-...

Markets took a step back last week as investors reacted to rising inflation, new 25% auto tariffs, and the lowest consumer confidence reading in years. In this episode of Momentum Mondays , we break down what drove the selloff, key technical signals we’re watching, and what’s coming up this week — including the March jobs report and important economic data releases. We also spotlight this week’s f...