Global Tantrum! with Steve Palley and Prof. Galen Jackson

The Iran war is winding down, but one front never closed. In southern Lebanon, Israel and Hezbollah are still trading fire, and it’s become one of the biggest sticking points left in the deal between Iran and the United States. The old question is back: what do you actually do about Hezbollah? What CAN you do? Here’s what’s hard about Hezbollah: it is two things at once. On the one hand, it’s a Le...

On June 14th, the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to end the Iran War. The Strait of Hormuz reopens, sanctions lift, and a $300 billion reconstruction fund is on the table. Iran got nearly everything it wanted. America got out. Trump marked the same day by turning 80 and hosting a UFC card on the White House lawn. Iran is off his radar, and he’s turned the keys over to JD Vance....

Trump’s recent military excursion against Iran wins several awards from the Global Tantrum Academy: 1) Most Declarations Of Victory, 2) Best Maritime Rescue By A Supporting Autonomous Boat, and 3) Largest Expenditure Of Ultra-Rare Munitions In A Losing Campaign. Depending on what happens over the next three to five years, while the US defense majors crank into gear replacing said munitions, that l...

Most Americans don’t know this: the United States technically defaulted on its debts not once but twice in the last century: once in 1933 and again in 1971. Luckily, the country won World War 2 in between those two incidents, which counted for a lot in terms of international credibility and creditworthiness. However, as any consumer currently out over his or her skis will know, lenders do not make...

After a bruising war with Iran, the editorials wrote themselves: the Strait of Hormuz closed, US bases hit, interceptors burned, and nothing decisive to show for it. Pundits reached for the ultimate decline metaphor. Could this be America’s “Suez Moment,” referring here to the the 1956 foreign policy fiasco / humiliation that ended Britain and France’s time as major independent global actors? We d...

After the US deposed Maduro and installed Delcy Rodriguez in Caracas, Venezuela stopped shipping oil to Cuba. That oil, heavily subsidized in exchange for Cuban doctors, teachers, and security advisors since the Chávez era, was the foundation of the Cuban economy. The last Russian tanker arrived in March. Now there’s no replacement coming and Cubans are living through 22-hour-a-day blackouts. This...

Since 2022, more than 100 senior People’s Liberation Army officers have been removed, disappeared, or placed under investigation, and last week two former defense ministers, Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu, were handed suspended death sentences that will commute to life imprisonment without parole. The Central Military Commission, which is supposed to have seven members, is down to two: Xi himself and a...

On April 7, Scott Bessent and Jerome Powell pulled the CEOs of the biggest U.S. banks into Treasury for an urgent, closed-door briefing — not about rates, not about liquidity, but about an AI model. Anthropic’s Claude Mythos Preview is apparently an order of magnitude better than anything currently public at finding software vulnerabilities. Rather than release it, Anthropic built a consortium cal...

The ceasefire’s held for over a week. The rockets, drones, and fighter-bombers are all taking a breather. The Strait of Hormuz might be opening (except to Iranian traffic, perhaps). The Gulf Arab states are expressing (very) cautious optimism. Israel might be holding its fire in Lebanon during its own separate, but linked, conflict with Hizbullah. And the Trump Administration may be on its way to...

On April 7th, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, brokered by Pakistan, with negotiations now opening in Islamabad. Hegseth called it a “historic and overwhelming victory” and claimed every US objective was met. Iran called it a historic win of its own. Only one of those can be true. Our read: Iran has the whip hand. Not because it beat the US in any conventional sense, but because it...

The theory of the Iran War from the U.S. perspective, to the extent that one existed, hinged on getting in and out quickly : decapitate the leadership, do maximum military damage, hope that the Iranian people rise up and take over, and then go home in triumph either way. Two to three weeks, tops. So much for that happy idea. We are five weeks in to this military “excursion,” to use President Trump...

The US-Iran war has entered its fourth week, and both sides are now talking — sort of. Iran is demanding transit tolls through the Strait of Hormuz and feels it is owed reparations. Washington responded with a fifteen-point plan that reads less like a negotiation and more like terms of surrender. The yawning gap between those two positions is where this war lives now. Oil is hovering around $105 a...

Three weeks into the Iran war and there are no good options left on the table. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, oil is spiking, the Gulf monarchies are being blasted, Lebanon’s on fire. A disaster of truly global proportions looms. The strategic picture has shifted. Trump asked NATO and even China for help reopening the strait and got a flat no. A new Foreign Affairs analysis makes...

The U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Ayatollah Khamenei on February 28th were supposed to be the decisive blow. Instead, two weeks later, Iran has a new Supreme Leader, Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, installed by the Revolutionary Guards, the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and roughly 10-15% percent of global oil is off the market. The IEA just authorized the largest emergency stockpile release in history....

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On February 22nd, Mexican security forces killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as El Mencho, the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. Within hours, CJNG retaliated with over 250 roadblocks across 20 Mexican states and set fires in Puerto Vallarta. The message was clear: the cartel’s reach extends far beyond any single leader. But this isn’t just a story about one dead kingpin. Mexican...

This week we’re talking about one of the big ideas that shaped the world after 1945: liberal internationalism. Free trade, international institutions, and democracy promotion were the three pillars meant to keep the peace and spread prosperity. For decades, they might have (depending on who you ask, of course). But something has clearly shifted, and we wanted to dig into what exactly that somethin...

The Trump administration has begun loosening semiconductor export controls on China, allowing Nvidia to sell advanced AI chips like the H20 to Chinese buyers in exchange for a cut of the revenue. It’s a sharp reversal from the Biden-era strategy of choking off China’s access to cutting-edge technology entirely, and it raises a question that has no clean answer: is it better to sell your adversary...

On this week’s episode, we ask an urgent question: what happens to European security when American nuclear deterrence becomes optional? The New START treaty is lapsing, Russia is deploying exotic new capabilities like the Poseidon drone, and Trump is pitching a Golden Dome missile defense system that may or may not work. The old Cold War certainties are cracking. The episode hinges on a credibilit...

In this episode, we dive into President Trump’s renewed push to acquire Greenland from Denmark. What started as a seemingly absurd proposal in 2019 has now become a serious geopolitical flashpoint, with Trump threatening tariffs on European allies and making aggressive statements at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Greenland, an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark with its capital...

On January 3rd, U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in a meticulously planned operation. The lights went out across Venezuela—a demonstration of American cyber capabilities—while Russian air defenses proved useless. The old boss is gone. But this wasn’t regime change. Delcy Rodriguez, Maduro’s deputy, now runs the government—under Washington’s direction. Trump has...

In a recent statement, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi argued that a Chinese attack or blockade of Taiwan would constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan. That phrasing matters. Under Japan’s postwar legal framework, it is the specific language that allows Tokyo to participate in collective military defense alongside the United States. This is not abstract signaling. It is a quiet but...

More on the 2025 National Security Strategy Great-power realism, MAGA internationalism, and the contradictions at the heart of Trump’s worldview STEVE PALLEY NOV 2025 Last episode, we walked through the opening logic of Trump’s 2025 National Security Strategy: its populist tone, its rejection of post–Cold War overextension, and its attempt to reframe U.S. grand strategy around sovereignty, restrai...

Every few years, a U.S. administration publishes its National Security Strategy —a grand, self-congratulatory mission statement that tells the world what Washington thinks it stands for. Most are boring, bureaucratic, and easy to ignore. The 2025 version under Trump is not one of those. This document reads less like a policy white paper and more like a manifesto . It’s part ideological declaration...

For the first time in nearly four years of war, the U.S. has taken direct aim at the beating heart of Russia’s economy: its oil exports. The Trump administration’s new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil , Russia’s two biggest energy companies, block both American and foreign firms from doing business with them. In practical terms, that means any bank or corporation that wants access to U.S. markets n...