Global Risk Profile by Tamuz Itai

In a world dominated by AI, automation, and hyper-efficiency, a bizarre paradox has taken hold. The daily, ordinary tasks of the pre-industrial world haven't died out. Instead, they’ve been elevated, hyper-refined, and preserved as stylized status symbols for the elite. Welcome to the era of the Luxury Fossil. In this episode, we explore the fascinating economic forces of the "Barbell Economy" tha...

For decades, global multinationals lived by a comfortable fiction: seikei bunri—the total separation of politics and economics. Corporate boards assumed they could rely on the U.S.-Japan security alliance for defense while embedding their supply chains, factories, and growth metrics deep inside the Chinese mainland. That peacetime luxury is officially over. In this episode, we break down the compo...

For thirty years, Western military planners operated under a dangerous assumption: that modern wars would be short, surgical, and won by the side with the best technology. We optimized our defense industrial base for "Peacetime Efficiency," prioritizing corporate mergers, lean supply chains, and just-in-time logistics. But as the conflicts of the 2020s—culminating in the staggering missile expendi...

The current ceasefires with Iran and Hezbollah are tactical pauses — not peace. In this episode, we break down the real situation on the ground in Israel, the fractured nature of the Iranian regime, the challenges with Lebanon, and why expectations need to be managed carefully. From the Black Knight problem to the “ripe melon” moment, this is a realistic assessment of where we actually stand. Cont...

We are currently witnessing the dismantling of an experiment of globalization "with Chinese characteristics," And more broadly, why the post-war rules-based order is being torn down and what is taking its place. Whether you view the actions of the Trump administration as a geopolitical correction or a "wrecking ball," the ground is being cleared for a world of sovereign nation-states. We dive into...

How do you fund a drone program while your economy is collapsing? You use the blockchain. In 2026, cryptocurrency has become the ultimate double-edged sword. For ordinary Iranians, it’s a vital lifeline against 50% inflation. But for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), it’s a $3 billion shadow arsenal used to procure missile parts and fund regional proxies. We’re pulling back the curtain...

In this video, we explore the "Zhuge Liang Choice"—a grim strategic dilemma named after a 14th-century Chinese legend that is currently playing out across the Middle East. From the rubble of Gaza to the displacement in southern Lebanon and the high-stakes ultimatum delivered to Iran in March 2026, we examine what happens when leaders are forced to choose between enduring endless "low-level bleedin...

Are you noticing that everyday life feels increasingly polarized? Fast food or tasting menus. Budget flights with fees or luxurious business class. Reliable mid-range hotels struggling while luxury properties thrive. A new car averaging nearly $50,000 — pushing many families toward used cars or heavy debt. This isn’t random. It’s the “barbell economy” — where value concentrates at the extremes (ul...

In this episode, we discuss the latest iran news concerning President Trump's recent threats to the Iranian regime. Many analysts and officials are debating whether Donald Trump will follow through on his warnings regarding the Strait of Hormuz. We explore the implications of these developments on us iran relations and the broader middle east political landscape, touching on national security conc...

An exclusive interview with Global Risk Profile's host, Tamuz Itai, in "The Perspectives with Cathy Zhang" channel. Itai breaks down the US-Israel war on Iran three weeks in: massive tactical successes against Iran's navy, missiles, and leadership; the regime's "degraded but functioning" status; why sparse daily missile launches still force Israelis into shelters 5–15 times a day; and the high-sta...

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed in March 2026—tanker traffic has collapsed over 90%, prices are spiking, and Gulf oil is trapped. Bypass pipelines like Saudi's East-West and UAE's Fujairah are maxed out, but they cover only a fraction of flows. History offers a solution: the 1930s Kirkuk-to-Mediterranean pipeline corridor, once shut by politics, could be revived via the Levant land brid...

Trump's Foreign Policy: Wins with Pragmatists, Walls with Ideologues In this episode of Global Risk Profile, we examine Donald Trump's foreign policy record as we approach the midpoint of his second term in early 2026. Trump’s signature style—hard bargaining, personal rapport, and leverage—delivers bold transactional successes when dealing with pragmatic, interest-driven leaders. Yet it faced dead...

Join us for the latest Israel news as we discuss IDF's claim of eliminating Hezbollah's intelligence chief in Beirut. Geopolitical columnist Tammuz Itai provides expert insights into Iran's proxies and their reach across the Middle East. This discussion sheds light on the ongoing Lebanon news and regional tensions, as well as potential end-states for the current war.

For decades, globalization was treated as a self-correcting system. Markets would integrate. Trade would expand. Political systems would converge. But what if the equilibrium was more fragile than we believed? Following Episode 1, in Episode 2 of this 2-part series, we zoom out. The domestic tensions we discussed previously did not emerge in isolation — they were shaped by a global transformation...

Why does the Federal Reserve feel like it’s always in crisis? Every few years the Fed becomes the center of political gravity — accused of corruption, incompetence, capture, or manipulation. Yet almost no public debate stops to ask a basic question: What does the Federal Reserve actually do? In this episode of Global Risk Profile, we step away from slogans and look at the heart of economics and fi...

In January 2026, China’s highest-ranking military officers were suddenly placed under investigation — including General Zhang Youxia, Xi Jinping’s closest military confidant. This was not an isolated corruption case. It was the culmination of years of escalating purges inside the People’s Liberation Army — a campaign that has hollowed out the very command structure Xi built to modernize China’s mi...

Did the U.S. just signal a new way of confronting China—without confronting China directly? In early January 2026, two developments stood out as not business as usual: the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro in a U.S. military operation, and unusually explicit U.S. warnings to Iran amid nationwide protests and a violent crackdown. Individually, each event can be explained on its own ter...

What is the dark truth behind the "telephone scam" centers at the Thailand-Cambodia border? In this episode of Global Risk Profile, biomedical scientist and former US Army microbiologist Dr. Sean Lin reveals a chilling shift in transnational crime. Beyond the financial fraud, a state-sanctioned organ harvesting "franchise" is reportedly being exported across Southeast Asia and the Belt and Road In...

Why have housing prices risen across so much of the Western world — even in countries with low population growth, different political systems, and decades of technological progress that made most other goods cheaper? In this episode of Global Risk Profile, we start with a provocative essay arguing that the housing market isn’t “broken,” but shaped by incentives. That claim turns out to be partiall...

Canada’s Medical Assistance in Dying (MAID) program began as a narrow, compassionate response to terminal illness. Today, it has become one of the most permissive assisted-dying regimes in the world. In this episode of Global Risk Profile, we trace how MAID evolved—from a tightly controlled end-of-life exception into a system shaped by legal logic, institutional incentives, healthcare scarcity, an...

This episode examines the origins of the post-1945 international order, born from the trauma of two world wars and the imperative to avoid uncontrolled escalation. It explores how the architects of this system adopted a pragmatic approach to establish a new liberal order. We discuss the role of diplomacy and foreign policy in shaping global stability, particularly from the perspective of the Unite...

Why does the European Union reject many U.S. food products — and why does the United States accuse Europe of hiding behind “fake” safety rules? Donald Trump claims the EU makes it economically impossible for American food and agricultural products to enter its market. European and Canadian officials respond that U.S. foods rely on chemicals, hormones, and treatments their systems do not allow. But...

Who gets counted in America—citizens, voters, or simply everyone who lives here? And how does that decision shape political power? In this episode of Global Risk Profile, we look beneath today’s debates on immigration, birthright citizenship, and redistricting to uncover the structural forces driving them. The story is not about conspiracy or partisan purity. It’s about a constitutional system tha...

Machine-speed warfare has arrived — and most military and political systems are still built for human-speed interpretation. In this episode, we explore how drone saturation, cheap precision strike, AI-assisted targeting, and electronic warfare are creating the conditions for escalation not through intent, but through misinterpretation. From Gaza and southern Lebanon to Ukraine and the U.S.–Mexico...