Global Research Unlocked

Please join Ralf Preusser in discussion with Mark Capleton and Meghan Swiber to discuss opportunities in inflation markets. Commodity price swings have been very pronounced since the start of hostilities in the Middle East. We will discuss market dynamics as they have translated into real yields, breakevens, and inflation swaps in sometimes surprising fashion and flag what we consider to be intere...

South Korea emerging as a breakout defense producer Asia's defense transformation is emerging as a compelling and investable growth theme, as the region shifts from import dependence to scaled manufacturing and exports. The region is expanding its role in Western defense supply chains as spending rises as a percentage of GDP. South Korea stands out as a key beneficiary, gaining market share across...

Ralf Preusser was joined in conversation by Bruno Braizinha, Sophia Salim, and David Tinsley on Friday, 10 April 2026, at 9:00 a.m. ET / 2:00 p.m. BST / 3:00 p.m. CEST. The discussion covered the impact of the ceasefire announcement on rates and volatility markets and included a deep dive into the U.S. consumer.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversa...

Commodity exposure? There's a region for that Prior to the Middle East conflict, investor sentiment toward Emerging Markets had turned increasingly bullish, driven by momentum and demand for assets positioned for US dollar weakness; while the war in Iran and the effective closure of the Hormuz Strait disrupted that optimism, David Hauner and David Beker argue the structural EM case remains intact....

Equities drop but S&P earnings resilient for now Global markets are recalibrating as higher energy prices shift the macro outlook and force a reassessment of growth and inflation. Our commodity strategy team raised forecasts for oil prices and other commodities due to Middle East supply challenges, leading the Global Economics team to lower their global growth estimates. While higher oil price...

Please join Ralf Preusser in conversation with G10 rates and FX trading to discuss positioning and market liquidity. In this podcast Ralf and team will discuss how liquidity and positioning unwinds have contributed to considerable gyrations in FX and rates markets.    You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affec...

Structural drivers of card networks charge ahead The card networks have historically been considered among the best and highest quality business models in public markets. But more recently, the card network stocks have de-rated as investors have grown concerned about perceived threats, from legislation to AI. Matt O'Neill recently reinstated coverage of the payments group and he joins the podcast...

Please join Ralf Preusser in conversation with Ralph Axel, Katie Craig and Ebrahim Poonawala on US banks. The call will take place on Fri 20 March at 10 am ET, 2 pm GMT, 3 pm CET. We will discuss US bank liquidity regulations and the impact on bank behaviour, reserve and UST demand, Fed balance sheet and rates.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversat...

Please join Ralf Preusser in conversation with Bruno Braizinha, Mark Cabana, and Sphia Salim. The conflict in Iran is a negative supply shock for much of the global economy via higher oil prices. Central banks face a deteriorated trade-off between growth and inflation. That trade off differs meaningfully across major markets, as does the repricing we have seen in rate markets. We discuss where we...

Lower tax payments shift stimulus later into 1H26 We're in the midst of tax season, and BAC data helps us track changes in refunds, payments, and the impact on spending. Refund growth is in the high single digits y/y, but lower tax payments bring total stimulus closer to the ~25% increase we had been expecting. Aditya Bhave explains how lower payments shift the timing of benefits, potentially exte...

Banks confront renewed private credit and AI-driven risks Private credit has remained a persistent concern for banks, and recent events have brought those worries back into focus. At the same time, new fears around AI-driven competition and potential credit deterioration have weighed on the group. Ebrahim Poonawala joins us to discuss how management teams addressed these issues at the recent BofA...