Geopolitical Cousins

Iran, Hormuz, another tanker on fire - sure, fine, but the real question is: what's actually driving the behavior here, and it's not the diplomacy everyone keeps quoting. Marko and Jacob argue it out: chokepoint tolls, the memorandum nobody trusts, oil prices doing more work than anyone wants to admit. Then Europe, because apparently that's still a thing - NATO's arms-deal theater, Le Pen's convic...

It's the Book Episode !!! Marko and Jacob turn their usual geopolitical sparring into a book draft: eight titles each, no rules, no rankings, just the texts that actually built their analytical muscle <3 The cousin picks span philosophy, fiction, psychology, and history. Machiavelli's The Prince opens the list, followed by texts on Marxism, biography, social psychology, and intelligence tradecr...

Drones aren't a technological revolution - they're a pain-tolerance equalizer, letting Ukraine strike refineries deep inside a country that never planned to defend them. Jacob and Marko trace the defender's-advantage pattern across 1948 Israel, Vietnam, and Nagorno-Karabakh, arguing offense rarely wins against a population fighting for its home. The long-term call: Ukraine emerges as the next Sout...

Cousins hits the road for its first-ever in-person episode, recorded at Matt Gertken's home in Taos, New Mexico! Jacob, Marko, and Matt dig into the brewing standoff between Anthropic and the US government over export controls on its Mythos AI model, then zoom out to ask whether AI marks a civilizational rupture on par with industrialization itself - pitting the state, corporations, and "free-for-...

World Cup Time!!!!!!! Robert Tipper and Juan Correa are our guests. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Secret Forecast Origins (01:23) - Meet The Authors (03:02) - Juan Football Roots (07:41) - Marco World Cup Memories (10:07) - Robert Germany Stories (14:47) - Jacob 2014 Awakening (19:06) - Why Soccer Is Hard (21:50) - Inside The Model (28:28) - What Doesnt Predict (30:22) - Group Stage Surprises (31:40) -...

The Strait of Hormuz is running out of runway - and so is the Trump administration's room to maneuver... The cousins unpack why oil inventories are the real ammunition in the Iran standoff, why markets keep hitting all-time highs despite closed shipping lanes, and what the AI economy's dominance says about the K-shaped world underneath. We close with NBA playoff predictions (duh) ahead of a Thunde...

Jacob and Marko dive straight into the Iran-US ceasefire negotiations (airstrikes are hitting Iranian ships and missile sites as I type) - dissecting domestic political constraints on both sides, the Strait of Hormuz's diminishing leverage window, and why the emerging deal is arguably a worse JCPOA. They pivot to Gen Z's eroding relationship with nationalism, Erdoğan's assault on Turkey's main opp...

Trade Value Index 2026 Part 3! Okay, okay... Here's the FULL list -> https://tinyurl.com/gctvi26 -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome Back and Housekeeping (01:37) - Netanyahu Reconsidered (03:07) - Trump Iran War and Tariffs (05:37) - Ejecting Netanyahu TBD (06:09) - Cyprus Surprise Pick (08:37) - Finland NATO and Stubb (10:21) - Zelensky Case for Top Tier (20:34) - Pope Leo XIV Rising Influence (...

2026 Trade Values P2 :) -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome (00:42) - Part Two Setup (02:31) - Lula at Fifteen (05:17) - Macron Debate (09:57) - Noboa and Ecuador Crime (11:47) - Uzbekistan Rising (13:28) - Uzbek Reforms Deep Dive (17:28) - Japan New Prime Pick (21:46) - Denmark and Greenland Standoff (24:03) - List Mixup and Denmark (25:17) - Xi Jinping Rising (26:53) - Xi Strengths and Risks (31:28...

The Trade Value Index is back!!!!!!! Part 1. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Housekeeping (00:47) - Why We Love Rankings (02:15) - Trade Value Rules Explained (06:59) - How We Score Leaders (08:29) - What Trade Value Means (11:03) - Last Year Rankings Recap (13:01) - Wins Misses and Dropoffs (19:43) - Starting the Countdown (20:00) - Jacob Cuts and Bottom Five (26:12) - Vietnam Surprise Pick (27:44) - Ma...

Trump and Xi shook hands in Beijing, and yes, the soccer mom in all of us should appreciate that two nuclear superpowers are behaving like adults. But let's not kid ourselves :) soybeans and Boeing orders don't a détente make. JShap thinks Trump can't carry the baton; Marko says he's the only one who can land the plane he launched. Meanwhile, the CIA's running around Mexico, Cuba's running out of...

The lads turn an unscripted session into a sharp diagnosis of the US-China relationship amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis. They debate whether China is strategically patient or simply indifferent - and what its silence means for the Global South. The Xi-Trump summit looms as both the dealmaker's prize and the ultimate test of a G2 world. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Introooo (01:20) - China Defies Iran...

Recorded late at night from New Orleans and Montreal, Jacob and Marko dig into the Iran-Hormuz standoff as oil prices climb and the ceasefire holds... for now. They debate who bears the blame, whether China's patience has limits, and what a US-China deal might mean for the strait. Plus: Canada's sovereign wealth fund and the Cousins Trade Value Index preview. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - After Dark (0...

Oil analyst Rory Johnston joins Jacob and Marko to break down why energy experts are alarmed by the Strait of Hormuz closure while markets remain at an all time high. Like wtf. Rory explains the 13 million barrel-per-day supply hole, the math on strategic reserves, and what timeline triggers a real price spike. The hosts probe whether Trump's leverage is shrinking faster than Iran's. -- Timestamps...

China isn't losing the energy war with America, it's not even flinching. Jacob and Marko break down why the "choke China's oil" thesis is economically illiterate, why the US and China actually want the same thing (cheap oil), and why Trump is more vulnerable to gasoline prices than Xi ever will be. Also: Billy Bob Thornton, hairy forearms, and bananas. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Housekeeping (01:00)...

Marko and Jacob dig into the Iran ceasefire - is it real, or theater? Marko argues Trump's bombing campaign materially set back Iran's nuclear program, making even a JCPOA-style deal a net win. They also cover the erosion of the petrodollar system, bid farewell to Viktor Orbán, and debate whether TMZ opening a DC bureau is civilization's final chapter. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Show Notes and Shout...

Marko is unbothered by ceasefire hand-wringing. He argues the Strait of Hormuz traffic was already recovering before any deal — because Iran is rationally cashing in through a tolling mechanism, not risking its leverage. Jacob frets the deal's fragile and spoilers lurk. Elsewhere: KMT's Beijing trip signals Taiwan's shifting mood, eight Senate seats are suddenly in play, Trump's economy approval i...

We recorded this pre-speech episode earlier today (April 1st), racing the clock before Trump's evening address. Marko seems to think that Trump will zag spectacularly - not taco, not escalate, but announce a NATO exit to distract from the Iran morass. Jacob thinks that there are two most likely scenarios following Trump's speech today. Behind Door A is a taco salad. Behind Door B is economic catas...

The boys are back! It's only been like 13 days!! Chill!! Also - the Iran conflict isn't just a headline risk - it's a physical supply crisis hiding in plain sight. Despite oil sitting at $93, Marko argues the world is weeks away from a non-linear cliff: floating storage is depleting, Iranian and Russian sanctioned oil relief is a 30-day band-aid, and by mid-April, petrochemicals, LNG, semiconducto...

Marko walks through his mathematical framework for how long the US-Iran conflict lasts: (Iran's pain tolerance) - (America's punitive air campaign) - (the global response to Hormuz closure) = ????? They dudes argue about why Iran's drone attacks are already collapsing under B-52 pressure, explain why China won't back Tehran, and warn that the real nightmare scenario isn't the straits — it's Iraq....

Marko and Jacob are back for a late Monday debrief as the Iran-Israel conflict whiplashes through price swings, contradictory Trump proclamations, and a surprise succession in Tehran. Marko breaks down why Iran's malleable war aims and slowing drone attacks signal a regime running out of stomach for a fight... and why the Strait of Hormuz remains the only geography that truly matters. -- Timestamp...

Distantly related cousin Matt Gertken joins the GC crew to dissect the escalating US-Iran conflict, and while he IS on record as the self-proclaimed "godfather of fading geopolitical risk" - even he's alarmed. His singular fixation: drones and the Strait of Hormuz. Forget the ballistic missiles, forget Tehran's skyline. If Iran can disrupt that chokepoint - even as a failed state - the world faces...

We brought in Ed Richardson - tanker maven, shipping expert, and one of the sharpest minds on how the world actually moves its oil. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, we break down why insurance isn't really the problem, what Red Sea Part Two looks like, why India might be the most exposed economy on the planet, and whether this is finally the moment the world starts building around the M...

Can't taste, can't smell, half a beer in - Marko puts his best foot forward for today's episode... And somehow it might be one of our best. The lads cover the Iran situation from every angle: why regime collapse is actually scarier than regime change, what a real 1973-style energy crisis looks like if the Strait goes dark, and why nobody - not allies, not neighbors - is rushing to Tehran's rescue....

The US and Israel struck Iran. Khamenei is dead. Marco got the biggest break of his career. And yet... the Islamic Republic lives on. The lads spend this episode digging into why this operation is less transformative than Twitter would have you believe. History is clear: America doesn't have a great track record of turning regime change into geopolitical wins - Iraq, Libya, Syria, Venezuela... Ira...