Gene Peroni's Daily Podcast

It seems Wall Street observers are determined to put the stock market in a particular box – bullish camp or the bearish camp. 

It’s early in the 1st quarter earnings reporting season, but my casual sketch observation of earnings is that they’re coming in better than expected across a number of different sectors. 

As we move to the heart of the 1st quarter earnings reporting season, the market seems to be in a pause mode, but this is pretty normal and acceptable from a technical standpoint. 

As we move into the thick of the 1st quarter earnings reporting season, there isn’t too much to report. Those companies that have reported their earnings have seen mixed reactions, but I think the takeaway, at least so far, is… 

Sentiment indicators can be interpreted to fit almost any market narrative. For instance, they can be interpreted as a contrary indication of market behavior… 

In the 4th quarter of last year, I predicted that the Dow could challenge its all-time record highs by the end of the first half of 2023. I never abandoned that forecast, but I had my doubts around March 10… 

The market’s more elastic, resilient, durable tone is becoming more apparent among market watchers, giving bears less to hang their hats on. 

The stock market in a quiet mode — more or less a “wait and see” posture — in advance of the 1st quarter reporting season. As I’ve mentioned recently, I think the market could be vulnerable over the coming days… 

Ahead of the 1st quarter earnings season, perhaps the prudent thing is to observe a “Missourian Stance” — a bit of a “show me” stance — in the very near term. 

Energy and aerospace defense were two standout categories in yesterday’s session, connecting the dots that this might cast an ominous shadow with respect to geopolitical concerns. 

The stock market finishing the 1st quarter on a high note in last Friday’s session. I think all-in-all it was a pretty good showing for the quarter… 

Market naysayers may soon have to make a decision, especially ahead of the Q1 earnings season — that decision is whether or not to stay on the sidelines, or remain short, etc. before the earnings are released. 

There’s an old English adage that, “March comes in like a lion and but leaves like a lamb.” I think that’s something we could adopt to the stock market… 

With the stock market steady following the financial debacle a couple of weeks ago, this might a good time to revisit Peter Lynch’s famous statement, “It’s not timing the market, it’s time in the market.” 

It is not unusual that some of the most dire predictions are made at, or near, a market bottom…. 

As we begin the final trading day of the week, there seems to be more confusion than resolution, more questions than answers on a number of fronts, but especially the banking debacle. 

Regarding the Fed’s decision today, it’s not so much what the central bank may do, but what they will say. The wording of their statement could be quite important for the market… 

I mentioned the other day how more often than not, March tends to produce a pivotal market action and these movements seem to occur around the 10th of the month. 

It has been said that the stock market behaves today what it sees on the 6-month horizon. But can that same timeline be applied to market sentiment? 

Happy St. Patrick’s Day! There seems to be an overwhelming consensus view that the stock market will break below its October lows. I’m not so sure that will happen because… 

Often before a significant market correction is completed, we find that the market’s leadership stalwarts come under pressure and are taken to the shed, and yesterday we saw that in a number of the traditional cyclical categories. 

The stock market grappling with the latest headline declines among the financials. This morning the news focused on Credit Suisse and this is keeping fear at elevated levels. 

The market holding up relatively well in my estimation, especially considering there was quite a bit of fear mongering over the weekend and right up to and through yesterday’s opening bell. 

It seems that more often than not, March delivers some sort of an expansive swing — a dramatic trading move that more often than not can prove to be pivotal.