Gene Peroni's Daily Podcast

Last Friday was an unremarkable day for the major market indices, but it was quite a different story for the underlying market. 

Rotation could play a more significant — if not critical — role in the market’s outlook, not just short term, but long term as well.  

Taking into account the ongoing headline challenges, it’s not so surprising to see and hear the analysts’ hair trigger comments about the stock market outlook. 

The stock market, and in particular the Dow and S&P 500, have been in a pretty limited range recently; we could see as relatively constructive given some of the challenges that the market continues to face. 

Technology added to its colossal gains from last week, but as we got further into yesterday’s session we saw some significant reversals amid high volume. It is likely now that… 

Technology sported some colossal gains last week, especially among the semiconductor stocks. This raises the question among some, especially the more skeptical market observers as to whether or not this could be the start of another tech bubble. 

Momentum has returned to the stock market environment and some might find this as a cautionary indication, especially among the bearish camp. 

The stock market continues to flutter amid uncertainties as to how the  debt ceiling talks will progress. I thought one of the takeaways in yesterday’s session… 

Six trading days remain in May, which begs the question if this year is a “Sell in May and go away” scenario. I don’t think that it is. 

Sir John Templeton eloquently defined a bull market. He said, “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” 

I recently observed that the Russell 2000 Growth Index seemed to be in a good bottoming pattern and we are now seeing it beginning to break out above that base formation. I find that encouraging for the outlook for the market. 

It seems that the major indices are tracking pretty closely with their shot-term moving averages, which isn’t all bad as for many weeks they’ve been in a trading range. 

The DJIA has been relegated to the irrelevant category with its performance year to date, and I think it’s a reflection of how the market is behaving — that there are certain stocks that aren’t participating… 

For months now there has been a steady drone of bearish forecasts, if not dire outlooks for the stock market, based on expectations that the economy was headed for recession. While that might still be the case… 

The very fact that the stock market seems lodged in a limited trading range would seem to reflect pedestrian technicals and a relatively listless trend. But I don’t see that as the case at all…

It may be subtle, but I think that the 1st quarter earnings season is having a generally positive impact on the stock market. 

I think the market gets good technical grades for its performance last week after withstanding the cumulative challenges of the Fed’s rate hike, the ongoing banking worries and the continuing chatter about recession. 

I didn’t discern any real surprises in yesterday’s Fed statement following their widely anticipated decision to raise rates by 25 basis points. Perhaps one of the angles might have been… 

I began my career back in 1974, which was right in the midst of a grueling grizzly bear market that extended for years with very few opportunities during that time. 

Even though the major stock indices have much different performances year to date with the Nasdaq well out in the lead and the Dow bringing up the rear… 

Historically the stretch between November and May is a positive time for the stock market, and this has proven to be the case this year. 

Yesterday’s rally was accompanied by generally higher volume and from a technical research 101 perspective, that’s an encouraging sign. 

Several random thoughts and observations — for one, the 1st quarter earnings that have been reported so far have not really been a great surprise from the market’s perspective…