FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.  This episode will cov...

We have a special guest in this episode of FX Talk, Ebury's Head of Nordics, Carl Lindh, as we debate the outlook for the main currencies in Scandinavia. Before we get into that, we discuss the fallout from the latest major central bank meetings, and October’s underwhelming US nonfarm payrolls report. Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England held rates steady this month, while hinting...

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine has taken centre stage, with a focus on the recent Hamas attacks and the Israeli military's retaliatory actions. Meanwhile, financial markets remain fixated on economic data and central bank decisions. Following our previous episode, most currencies rebounded against the dollar, thanks in part to a dovish tone from several Fed policymakers tha...

September was a very busy month in the FX market, dominated by a host of major central bank meetings. Events kicked off with the ECB, which delivered a ‘dovish hike’, whereby it raised rates, but suggested that there was minimal appetite to hike again. Investors were taken aback by the Bank of England’s decision to hold rates steady, after the August UK inflation report missed expectations.  On th...

In recent weeks, the USD has performed well largely due to safe-haven flows, which came about because of investors' concerns about economic slowdown in China. The slowdown is being evidenced by disappointing data like GDP,  PMI, retail sales, and industrial production, along with issues in the property sector. On the other hand, the US economy has shown great strength, with a healthy labour m...

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.  This episode will cov...

August is typically a quiet month in the financial markets as investors often take a break, seeking sunnier climates elsewhere. In consequence, volatility can be relatively low, and currency trades tend to be narrower due to the lack of substantial economic news or announcements. Predicting whether this pattern will follow suit this year is challenging without a definitive forecast. However, it&ap...

The past fortnight has been eventful with high volatility observed in both Emerging Markets (EM) and major currencies. The significant development was a sharp decline in the US Dollar (USD). Indeed, the USD Index reported one of the largest weekly sell-offs since the Global Financial Crisis. Investors reacted to a less-than-expected set of US inflation figures. The headline inflation dropped to 3%...

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.  This episode will cov...

Recording during a relatively calm period in the foreign exchange market. Most major currencies are experiencing narrow ranges, partly due to the summer season and national holidays, including Independence Day on July 4th in the US. Typically, summers are quieter for currency markets, but they haven't been completely inactive recently. Central bank leaders have taken a generally hawkish stanc...

In this episode, we discuss the recent volatility in financial markets due to a number of major economic data releases and central bank announcements. The Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish pause, hinting at the possibility of raising interest rates on two more occasions in 2023, while the European Central Bank raised rates yet again and indicated that another rate increase is on the way in July....

In this exhilarating episode of FX Talk, our Market Analysts dive deep into the highly anticipated Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) meetings, set to take place on the 14th and 15th of June, respectively. Delve into the speculations surrounding the Fed's decision on interest rates and the impact of the latest Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report on their considerations. We’d like to he...

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.  This episode will cov...

We dive into the main reasons behind the recent strength of the US dollar in the global markets. The USD has been trading higher against most other G10 and emerging market currencies, except for a few exceptions such as Latin American ones. We explore what's been driving this rally, with a focus on market concerns surrounding the US debt ceiling and how they have contributed to the safe-haven...

Amidst important data releases, the US NFP beat expectations, but the US CPI reported a decline in inflationary pressures. G10 currencies have seen the USD as the worst-performing currency for the past two months (except for JPY), largely due to an increasingly confident market that the Fed is finished hiking rates after May meeting. In contrast, the ECB and BoE have more room to go. The ECB is st...

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.  This episode will cov...

Welcome to the latest episode of FX Talk, where we bring you all the latest news, headlines, and developments in the foreign exchange market. In this fortnightly dose, we cover the most important events that have occurred since our last episode. Despite a quieter period in the markets, banking uncertainty has been a key focus, which has now significantly abated. On the positive side, risk sentimen...

In this episode, we discuss the recent banking turmoil, specifically the failure of SVB and its impact on the market. SVB's sensitivity to interest rate risk and its investment in long-duration bonds led to a significant mark-to-market hole in its balance sheet, causing depositors and investors to withdraw their funds en masse. This panic has contributed to the troubles faced by Credit Suisse...

Today's focus is on the major data that has reshaped expectations for central bank interest rates. Generally, we're observing two things: the activity data is holding up better than expected, and inflation is proving more persistent than hoped. As a consequence, markets are bracing for higher rates for a longer period. Let's start with the US. We have seen a string of positive surpr...

Since the last episode, the markets have experienced a relatively quiet period, with most major currencies trading within narrow ranges. There were, however, some exceptions in Scandinavia, where certain currencies rallied sharply. For instance, the Swedish krona jumped following a hawkish announcement from Riksbank. On the other end of the scale, the euro underperformed and was the only G10 curre...

The current trading environment is marked by volatility and choppiness, with most currencies trading within tight ranges throughout January. This can be attributed to a combination of the absence of major news events and anticipation surrounding announcements from central banks such as the Fed, ECB, and BoE. Starting with the Fed, their latest move was in line with expectations - a smaller 25bp hi...

At the moment, the key theme in currencies is an improvement in risk sentiment and an appreciation in high-risk currencies, at the expense of lower-risk ones, such as the US dollar. The USD index has hit a June 2022 low and has fallen more than 10% since October, as the Federal Reserve slows its hiking cycle and global recession fears abate. Among the better performers, currencies closely linked t...

What can we expect this year? The narrative in 2022 was much about central bank responses to rising inflation rates. Will that remain the case this year? Or will these central banks begin calling time on their tightening cycles. And what about the global economy? Are recession indeed on the way? Or will we just see modest downturns in growth?  In summary: what are the main themes to look out for i...

China finally signs of an easing in its zero-Covid policy. It boosted the CNY and risk currencies against the USD. We see an improvement in risk sentiment and also signs of a downtrend of US inflation. We also are noticing growing expectation among investors for a dovish pivot during the Fed meeting next week.  We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: htt...

If you’re following financial markets at the moment, there really is very little chance to catch your breath. Since our last episode, the market sentiment has improved and investors dialed back expectations for US rate hikes, weighed significantly on the dollar.  Meanwhile, the October US inflation report is much softer than expected. The big question is: What does that mean for the US dollar? We’...