FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

Britain is set for its fifth prime minister in four years following the resignation of Keir Starmer. With Andy Burnham destined to land the top job in Downing Street, we discuss what impact the new leader could have on the pound and gilt markets.  The dollar, meanwhile, has surged higher since the Federal Reserve’s June monetary policy meeting, the first since the appointment for Kevin Warsh as th...

Despite some encouraging signs of progress, the Iran war continues to drag on without a clear end in sight. Investors are exhibiting an element of headline fatigue, as the sort of headlines that would have previously been greeted with wild gyrations in markets are now being either roundly ignored or treated with caution. EUR/USD has subsequently traded within a tight range - we discuss what could...

The era of central bank consensus appears to be over. In this episode of FX Talk , we dive into a hectic week of monetary policy decisions that saw the "Big Three" hold rates steady while revealing deep internal fractures.  We start with the Federal Reserve, where an 8-4 split marks the most divided FOMC in decades. As Kevin Warsh prepares to take center stage, we analyse whether his ten...

Markets are breathing a collective sigh of relief following the news of an eleventh hour ceasefire between the US and Iran. But is this the beginning of a genuine off-ramp, or just a brief intermission before the next act?  In this week's episode, we dig into what the ceasefire actually means for markets: will the US dollar sell-off continue? Does the move lower in oil prices have more room t...

SPECIAL GUEST ALERT.  We are delighted to be joined on today’s episode by Simon French - Chief Economist and Head of Research at Panmure Liberum, and regular columnist at The Times.  On today’s episode, we unpack the implications of the ongoing war in Iran. How could the volatility in global oil prices impact inflation, and how might central banks around the world respond to the shock? Simon also...

Global trade has been thrown into fresh chaos following last week’s Supreme Court ruling, which deemed President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs to be illegal. The reaction in financial markets has been relatively calm so far, as not only were investors prepared for the verdict, but they fully expected the president to pursue alternative methods to achieve his trade objectives.  The future of ECB President...

Following months of speculation, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh has been named as the next chair of the FOMC - how could his appointment impact US rates, Fed autonomy and the dollar? Meanwhile, the massive supermajority victory for Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi at the weekend’s election has triggered a sharp rebound in the yen - what has instigated the move?  We also discuss the implications of the s...

The Sell America trade returned with a vengeance last week after President Trump threatened eight European countries with fresh tariffs for their stance over Greenland. While his entirely predictable U-turn was greeted positively by equities and bond markets, the dollar has continued to lose ground, why? The Japanese yen has rallied sharply amid mounting speculation of a rare coordinated intervent...

2026 is already shaping up to be another eventful one in global financial markets, particularly following a number of high profile geopolitical events in the first two weeks of the year. But what do we expect to be the main focus for investors this year?  Will the AI boom boost global growth? Or is the bubble ready to burst? And how will the new Fed chair impact the path of US interest rates? We a...

The heavily anticipated UK Autumn Budget has come and gone, without causing too much in the way of alarm among market participants. Sterling and gilts actually rallied following the announcement, but what was behind this rather subdued reaction? And what might the budget mean for the UK economy in 2026? Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve appears almost certain to cut rates again at its December meetin...

The US government shutdown continues to drag on like a traffic jam in New York at rush hour, with no apparent ending in sight. Macroeconomic reports out of the US have been subsequently scarcer than Wi-Fi in the desert, but could this lack of data impact the tone of Fed Chair Powell’s communications at this week’s FOMC meeting? And what might it mean for the path of US rates in 2026? In the meanti...

SPECIAL GUEST ALERT . We’re delighted to be joined on today’s episode by Peel Hunt’s Chief Economist Kallum Pickering. Kallum brings with himself well over a decade of experience as an economist in London and is a regular commentator in the financial markets space, having made many appearances down the years on the likes of Bloomberg and CNBC. He also has regular columns in the Telegraph, the Spec...

Latest business activity PMIs from Europe showed a mixed picture in the Eurozone and brought fresh concerns over the health of the British economy. Does the latter shift the outlook for the BoE? And what do bond investors think about the Federal Reserve’s latest decision?  Our analysts also dissect the latest monetary policy decisions in Scandinavia, where both the Riksbank and the Norges Bank joi...

SPECIAL GUEST ALERT . We’re delighted to be joined on this week’s episode by Ebury’s Director of China Initiatives, Isabel Ye Qiu. The unveiling of President Trump’s tariffs has wreaked havoc with supply chains globally, particularly in China. How are businesses reacting? Can China keep its advantage over the rest of the region and how can Ebury assist in the current environment. Isabel tells us a...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a dovish surprise at the annual get together of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming last week. Has this effectively guaranteed a September rate cut from the FOMC? And what do fears over Fed independence mean for the US dollar? Our analysts also dissect the latest encouraging business activity PMI figures out of the Euro Area, and break down the impli...

The EU has finally reached a trade deal with the US! But is this a bad deal for the European economy? How have markets reacted to the news? And what could this mean for ECB rates? We also discuss another batch of quite remarkable economic figures out of the US - could this delay the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts? And we again scratch our heads and try to figure out what’s going on with the p...

FX Talk has finally caught up with the times! After nearly five years of hiding behind microphones, honing our radio voices and bringing you audio-only episodes, we’re finally making the leap into the exciting world of YouTube. Brace for some questionable outfit selections, a few bad hair days, and an inevitable stray coffee spill or two. In this week’s episode, we unpack whether the recent “sell...

Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have dominated activity in currency markets in the past fortnight or so. The safe-haven dollar gained across the board as the conflict between Israel and Iran intensified, although news of a US brokered ceasefire has buoyed risk appetite and sent the greenback crashing to its lowest level in three years.  The Federal Reserve held interest rates stead...

The dollar has continued to lose ground against most major and emerging market currencies in the past few weeks. A US court ruling that deemed White House tariffs to be illegal has been delayed pending an appeal. Trade negotiations are ongoing, although these have failed to yield much progress thus far. Investors are also fearful that Trump’s “Big, Beautiful” tax bill could lead to a sharp increas...

US tariff headlines continue to dominate the narrative in financial markets. Fears over a US recession triggered a sharp sell-off in US equities, Treasuries and the dollar last month. Yet, signs of progress in trade negotiations, particularly following the news of a US-China trade deal, have lifted optimism, and raised hopes that the economic impact of the tariffs will be less significant than ini...

The US dollar collapsed to its lowest level in three years this week, with investors still reeling from the unveiling of (and subsequent delay to) President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Yet, with Trump and his top team softening their stance towards China, and the President backtracking on his calls to remove Jerome Powell from his position as chair of the FOMC, has the tide turned for the US curre...

It’s been a barely believable few days in financial markets since President Trump unveiled the details of his reciprocal tariffs during his so-called “Liberation Day” on 2nd April. Risk assets crashed on the realisation that the tariffs would be significantly more aggressive than anyone had been anticipating. The dramatic 90-day pause to all trade levies (China aside) has triggered a fresh bout of...

In this week’s episode of FX Talk, Matt and Roman are joined by our Sao Paulo analyst, Eduardo Moutinho, to discuss the latest headlines in the currency market. The dollar has sold-off sharply against most currencies in recent weeks as investors fear a slowdown in US growth. Yet, with the Federal Reserve sticking to its cautious approach to cuts, is this move lower in the greenback perhaps overdon...

President Trump has followed through with plans to slap massive 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, while also unveiling fresh 10% duties on China. The US dollar would ordinarily be trading higher under such circumstances, but the greenback has sold-off sharply across the board. What is fuelling the move? And how concerning is the recent deterioration in US economic news? Meanwhile, las...

The outlook for UK interest rates has been clouded once again this week by strong data on the labour market and inflation. The main inflation rate jumped to a 10-month high in January, while the core rate is now printing at nearly double the BoE’s 2% target. Could this herald a slower pace of rate reductions ahead? Or will the committee prioritise supporting Britain’s admittedly fragile growth out...