Forward Guidance

This debut episode is from our brand new podcast Market Depth hosted by Weston Nakamura. Follow Market Depth using the links below to stay up to date with the latest episodes! Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Market Depth On YouTube: http://bit.ly/3JKhw8I -- Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthesp...

For some time now it has been the belief of many Fed-watchers that the Federal Reserve would continue to hike interest rates until it “breaks something.” Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy returns to Forward Guidance to argue that the stunning collapse of two large U.S. banks represents such breakage. Alden tells Jack Farley that this damage will soon give way to a period of low real inter...

Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager and private investor, joins Jack Farley to share his thoughts on the turmoil in the banking sector, the consequences of the policy response from Washington, and the fate of the U.S. Dollar as the global reserve currency. Kao argues that the Fed’s recent assistance to U.S. banks allows the Fed to hike more in order to fight inflation. Kao also shares his view...

On Sunday, March 12, the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced emergency measures to support U.S. regional banks experiencing bank runs. Were these actions a “bailout” and have they already created unintended consequences? To Joseph Wang, former senior trader at the New York Federal Reserve, the answer to both of these questions is an un...

Signature and Silicon Valley Bank have collapsed. In this breaking news episode, hosts Jason Yanowitz and Jack Farley interview Joseph Wang to discuss the banking system failures and what to expect next. Joseph dives deep into the risk both banks took by not hedging interest rate risk, how this could have been avoided and whether other banks are in a similar position? Recorded on March 13, 2023, a...

To get a 20% discount off an annual subscription to Danielle DiMartino Booth https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/guidance and use code GUIDANCE Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley to share her thoughts on how the ongoing turmoil in the U.S. regional banking sector will affect the economy and the Federal Reserve’s fight with inflation. Recorded...

Check out Weston Nakamura’s new show, Market Depth (First episode airs on Wednesday March 15): Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3YMXoHm Apple: https://apple.co/3ytqwZ8 -- Today marks the end of an era for the Bank of Japan and global macro writ large, as Haruhiko Kuroda held his final policy meeting as governor of the Bank of Japan for March 2023, leaving his controversial Yield Curve Control policy unch...

Today, Silicon Valley Bank, an institution with over $200 Billion worth of assets, failed. Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why. Whalen attributes the collapse in book value of SVB Financial (the entity that owns Silicon Valley Bank) to the Fed’s rapid hikes in interest rates, which severely depressed the market value of the bank’s holdings....

Today Jack Farley speaks with David Hay, chief investment officer of Evergreen Gavekal and publisher of the Haymaker newsletter on Substack. Hay entered the investment business the same year as Paul Volcker became the Chair of the Federal Reserve, and he shares what the investment world looked like then, beaten down by inflation and obsessed on commodities such as gold and oil.  Hay describes how...

Alfonso (“Alf”) Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass and host of The Macro Trading Floor, returns to Forward Guidance to argue why he is starting to like bonds at this point in the business cycle. Alf and Jack discuss inflation, the labor market, the Fed hiking cycle, “higher for longer,” the housing market, the earnings cycle, and how all of these factors affect the future performance of lon...

Follow On The Margin: Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3yc4079 Apple: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM -- This epsidoe is taken from the On The Margin weekly roundup. As Mark takes some well deserved time off, Mike Ippolito host of the On The Margin podcast combines forces with Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast for a special edition of Forward Marginal Guidance. As Berkshire Hathaway released the...

Martin Pelletier, Senior Portfolio Manage at TriVest Wealth joins Forward Guidance to discuss the "structural shift" that has occurred in markets due to rising inflation throughout 2021 & 2022, and how to navigate this new turning point. With Martin's background running a long only energy hedge fund, we go on to discuss the energy trade and if the underinvestment in the industry has created the pe...

Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on the labor market, the U.S. economy, and stocks and bonds. Green tells Jack Farley that the apparent strength of the labor market is not fully capturing the layoffs in tech, and that last year’s spike in interest rates are already causing damage in commercial real estat...

Right now, U.S. officials in Washington D.C. are preparing legislation that will cut off foreign investment into China.  That’s according to Jack’s two guests today, Harald Malmgren & Nick Glinsman. According to them, the Biden administration is preparing an executive order that will fundamentally alter America’s financial relationship with China. Harald Malmgren is an economist, ambassador, and f...

How should the world decarbonize its economy and maximize human flourishing? Steve Keen, post-Keynesian economist and Green New Deal proponent, explores this question with Doomberg, energy advocate and green chicken, in a no holds barred discourse on the future of energy and climate.  -- Follow Doomberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/DoombergT Follow Steve Keen on Twitter https://twitter.com/ProfS...

The Federal Reserve and the bulls have been hoping for a “soft landing” scenario in which inflation falls but the economy doesn’t enter a recession. The odds of a “soft landing” appear to have increased over the past few months - but what are the odds that, should it come to pass, a soft landing will actually last?  Bob Elliott, CIO of Unlimited Funds, and and Andy Constan, founder of Damped Macro...

What is a true financial crisis, how does it differ from the mere popping of a speculative bubble or a vanilla recession, and what are the current risks of a financial crisis right now? Steven Kelly, an expert on financial crises and Senior Research Associate at the Yale Program on Financial Stability, joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy”) to discuss these questions. Wang, a former senior...

Michael Howell, managing director at Cross Border Capital, is the world’s leading expert on global liquidity, a key concept in finance that relates to the relative ease of financing in markets around the world. After previously calling in 2022 that a collapse in liquidity would usher in a bad year for risk assets, Howell returns to Forward Guidance with happier tidings. Howell now argues that glob...

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Neal Berger Founder, President and Chief Investment Officer of Eagle’s View Capital Management joins the show to discuss how he managed to correctly identify, and profit, from the 2022 bear market. After posting triple digit returns of 163% in 2022 (as reported by Bloomberg), Neal identified the sell off in stocks and bonds that would occur as central banks...

Can the Fed hike to 7 or even 8%? Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, senior analyst at Macro Hive, thinks so. Dwor-Frecaut joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, who share their outlook for interest rates and inflation in 2023. Dwor-Frecaut has worked at the IMF, New York Fed, The World Bank, as well as several hedge funds such as Bridgewater. Dominique Dwor-Frecaut's l...

Roger Hirst, managing editor at Real Vision Creative Studios and macro editor at Lykeion Research, joins Forward Guidance to share his macro outlook for 2023. Hirst tackles the ongoing fight in the bond market over the degree to which central banks - namely, The Bank of England, The Federal Reserve, and The European Central Bank - can keep interest rates at restrictive levels before being forced t...

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jim Bianco Founder of Bianco Research LLC joins the show alongside Mike Ippolito of On The Margin for a discussion on Powell's press conference on Wednesday 1st February. Markets started the new year with a strong rally seeing gains of around 7% in the S&P 500. Many anticipated a hawkish press conference from Jerome Powell in a bid to tighten financial condi...

With the February Fed meeting rapidly approaching, Jack Farley welcomes Colby Smith, U.S. economics editor for the Financial Times (FT), to share her expectations for the February meeting, and her insights about the transmission of the Fed’s policy to the market and the public. She argues that the disconnect between the rate cuts being priced into the interest rate futures market and the Federal R...

Sam Burns, founder of Mill Street Research, explains why he thinks the bull market in stocks can last for much longer. He notes that many companies are still growing their earnings substantially despite inflation and economic uncertainty, and argues that the outperformance of cyclical stocks over defensive stocks is an indicator that the bull market in stocks has legs. Filmed on January 26, 2023....

Milton Berg is a quiet legend of technical analysis whose work is regularly used by the world’s most accomplished investors. He joins Jack Farley to share his reading of specific patterns in the market that to him are strong bullish indicators. Berg argues that the recession already occurred in 2022 and that the best time to buy stocks is coming out a recession. Berg shares with Farley in-depth an...