Forward Guidance

Dr. Perry Mehrling, Professor of International Political Economy at the Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston University, joins Forward Guidance to discuss the health of the global dollar system. Sharing ideas from his latest book, “Money and Empire: Charles P. Kindleberger and the Dollar System,” Dr. Mehrling shares insights on the extension of the dollar to the global south and globalization o...

Jared Dillian, publisher of The Daily Dirtnap, returns to Forward Guidance to argue why he’s no longer bearish on natural gas, why he thinks the May Fed meeting could be a catalyst for gold, and why hedge fund managers who are still short officer REITs (real estate investment trusts) will get their faces he’s no longer bearish on natural gas. He discusses several essays from his latest book, “Thos...

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Nathan Tankus Author at Notes on the Crises joins the show for a deep dive into the shadow banking system, recent financial crises and the current state of the banking system post SVB's collapse.  Questioning conventional monetary theory, Nathan outlines his thesis authored in a recent paper released in January 2022 "The New Monetary Theory". Nathan also shar...

Ultra short-term Treasurys have rallied so much that the 1 month bill now yields over 150 basis points less than similar instruments at the Federal Reserve. Jeff Snider, chief strategist at Atlas Financial and host of Eurodollar University, joins Jack Farley to discuss. Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://...

This week, I join Mike Ippolito on his weekly roundup edition of On The Margin to discuss bank earnings a month on from the "March banking panic". We also discuss the Fed's weekly H.4.1 report which saw a slight uptick in the BTFP usage, and a slight reduction in the discount window borrowing. We then tie how all these factors will effect the economy and markets, but to hear that, you'll have to t...

Recent efforts by foreign leaders have led some to claim that the U.S. Dollar system will soon cease to be the global reserve currency. Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital returns to Forward Guidance to argue that these arguments are utterly wrong, and he explains why in great detail. He expects a major squeeze to occur sometime over the next two years, although he and Jack discuss the potential for...

The more capital a bank holds, the more losses it can take before going bust. Dr. Martien Lubberink, professor at Victoria University of Wellington, joins Forward Guidance to define regulatory bank capital and put it in context of the conspicuous bank meltdowns in March. Lubberink opines on the issues at Credit Suisse & Silicon Valley Bank through the lens of bank capital, and he shares insights o...

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her findings on the problems brewing in commercial real estate, the collapse in money supply (M2) growth, and her updated views on the auto and housing markets. -- Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://pub...

Jerome Schneider, managing director at PIMCO, is a maestro of short-term funding markets. He oversees PIMCO’s >$300 Billion pool of short-term liquidity for investors (the asset side) and also devises strategies to efficiently and robustly fund PIMCO’s longer-term investments (the liability side). Schneider gives in-depth insight on how key indicators in the short-term funding world have changed d...

On todays episode of Forward Guidance Simon Ree Author & Founder of The Tao Of Trading joins the show for a discussion on the key principles for becoming a successful trader.  Simon takes us back to March 2020, a period which kicked off an aggressive bull market leading all the way up to 2022. In 2022, many market participants got caught offside as the aggressive rally suddenly turned into an equa...

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, returns to Forward Guidance to comment on the ample and growing earnings of the big banks (particularly JPMorgan Chase, whose stock surged over 7% on rosy net income and increasing deposits).  Whalen argues that banks’ unrealized losses on their securities due to interest rate risk have gone down dramatically as interest rates have fallen since the...

Dan McNamara, veteran commercial MBS trader and founder of Polpo Capital, joins Forward Guidance to argue that the commercial real estate (CRE) default cycle has only just begun. McNamara notes that the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank is causing regional banks to curb lending to commercial real estate projects, and that as a result many property developers will strategically d...

On today's episode of Forward Guidance Lou Crandall, Chief Economist of Wrightson ICAP & Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro join the show to discuss the fallout of the recent bank panic. With two monetary plumbing experts on the show, we take the opportunity to cover a wide range of topics including the real reason bank deposits were leaving banks, the impact of the record $2 trillion parked in the...

Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, joins Jack Farley to share her data-driven investment outlook at a challenging time for global markets. Sonders argues that before the turmoil in the regional banking sector, the U.S. was already in a “rolling recession” where weakness rolled throughout different parts of the economy. Now, after the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (“SVB”)...

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Professor Emeritus of Economics at Leonard N. Stern School of Business, author and financial historian Dr. Richard Sylla joins the show for a discussion on one of his most widely studied areas... interest rates. After authoring "A History of Interest Rates", a book which examined over four millennia of interest rates trhoughout periods of inflation, financial...

John Maxfield, banking specialist and author of the Maxfield on Banks Substack, joins Jack to discuss the history and future of the U.S. banking system. Drawing on his wide-ranging historical knowledge, Maxfield notes that when it comes to banks, failure is the norm, not the exception. Maxfield argues that the acute phase of the banking panic in the U.S. is likely over, as loan yields will rise an...

Peter Stella, Former Head of the IMF Central Banking Division, joins Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed and author at Fedguy.com, and Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on: -what really causes inflation  -monetarism, fiscal theory of the price level, and modern monetary theory (MMT) -the unrealized losses on the Fed’s balance sheet -why yield curve control likely won’t b...

Nick Halaris, President of real estate investment firm Metros Capital, joins Jack to share insight on the challenges commercial real estate faces after a surge in interest rates and the fall of two U.S. banks. The phrase “commercial real estate” is a catch-all terms that refers to offices, apartment buildings (“multi-family”), retail, and industrial spaces. Unlike residential real estate, which is...

Sir Paul Tucker, research fellow at The Harvard Kennedy School and former deputy governor of The Bank of England, joins Forward Guidance to discuss ideas from his latest book, “Global Discord: Values And Power In A Fractured World Order.”  Tucker tells Jack Farley that China’s growing economic might and rejection of liberal values poses a challenge to the U.S.’ role as global hegemon, and he detai...

Today Jack interviews Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James Financial, and Joseph Wang, author at https://fedguy.com/, for a conversation on how the recent banking turmoil has muddled the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting mission. Woodward, a banking veteran with a rare understanding of the regional banks’ investment portfolio, gives a glimpse into the interest-rate exposure (“dura...

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, we sit down with Michael Howell Managing Director at Cross Border Capita to discuss the most recent FOMC meeting. With a backdrop of banking turmoil, historic bond market volatility and above target inflation, how will Powell react to the recent market action? To find out, you'll have to tune in! ____ Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow...

Does the ongoing turmoil in the banking world constitute a “Minksy moment”? Daniel Neilson, assistant professor of monetary economic at Bard College at Simon’s Rock and author of “Minsky” (2019), argues yes. Neilson explores the potential of contagion within the banking world, and he makes the case that the Federal Reserve’s Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) as well as the FDIC backstop might make...

Marc Cohodes, accomplished short-seller and financial bloodhound, is on the ultimate hot-streak. Over the past six months, he has been the sternest critic of FTX, Silvergate, and Signature Bank, all of which either have ceased operations as a corporate entity or will do so shortly. He shares what led him to call out FTX in the summer of 2022 (months before its bankruptcy in the fall) and why he sh...

For 40% off an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime (220 / year instead of 374 / year), go to https://macrohive.com/jack or use discount code JACK at checkout. Macro Hive sample report on Silicon Valley Bank (co-written by Mustafa Chowdhury): https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/silicon-valley-bank-how-the-government-plans-to-contain-the-fallout/ ___ Just how bad was the risk management at Sil...

Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman, chief investment officer of Praetorian Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he doesn’t think the ongoing turmoil in the regional banking system will have much effect outside on the economy or markets. He explains why he thinks the banking businesses do not make great investments. When Jack Farley asks what he does like, Kuppy’s answer is simple: oil. He exp...