Fixed Interests

Sabin Saveluc and Redmond Ramsdale explore the resilience of GCC banks amid the US-Iran conflict and ceasefire, discussing sector outlook, rating actions, asset quality, funding, liquidity, and sovereign support packages shaping the Middle East banking sector.

Fitch's Cynthia Chan & Christian Scarafia reveal why bank forecasts refuse to crack, from higher-for-longer rates to leaner operations. And the surprise standouts? Italy and Switzerland are pulling ahead. Listen now.

In the second part of their conversation, host Aymeric Poizot and Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton turn to the market fallout from the latest FOMC meeting and what the Fed's reset means over the longer term. They unpack the bear-flattening of the Treasury curve, the role of falling oil prices and stretched equity valuations, and how a smaller Fed balance sheet, rising supply, and a higher term...

Aymeric Poizot, Global Head of Investor Development at Fitch Ratings, is joined by Chief Economist Brian Coulton to examine what Kevin Warsh's arrival as Fed Chair means for monetary policy and markets. They explore Warsh's more hawkish tone, his focus on Fed communications and balance sheet reduction, and his push to restore credibility on inflation. The conversation also breaks down the latest r...

Ed Parker and Charles Seville outline Fitch’s updated Global Economic Outlook, covering how the impact of the US‑Iran war and resulting oil shock are driving growth and inflation forecast revisions, along with the impact of ongoing AI investment.

The ongoing US-Iran conflict has created a complex and mixed picture for Canada, a major oil exporter navigating both the benefits and costs of elevated energy prices. In this episode of Fixed Interests, Joshua Grundleger and Mark Sadeghian discuss Fitch's updated oil price forecasts and what the shock means for Canada's sovereign credit profile, energy sector, and provincial finances. The convers...

Hungary’s April elections delivered a decisive victory for the opposition Tisza party, reshaping the country’s political landscape and outlook for policy reform. In this episode of Fixed Interests, Erich Arispe Morales, Head of Eastern Europe Sovereigns, speaks with Malgorzata Krzywicka, Hungary’s primary analyst, about the election outcome and its implications for the country’s sovereign credit p...

AI‑driven investment in data centers, compute capacity, and supporting infrastructure continues apace, raising important questions about future monetization and credit sustainability. In this episode of Fixed Interests , Justin Patrie, Head of Credit Commentary and Research, is joined by Alen Lin, Senior Director in Corporate Ratings, and Alex Bumazhny, Group Credit Officer, to examine recent deve...

Richard Hunter and Duncan Innes-Ker discuss how the Middle East crisis is affecting sovereign ratings and the macro-outlook. Impacts are contained so far, and much geopolitical risk is already built into ratings and headroom. Related Resources: Fitch Insights: Credit Implications of the Iran War World Growth to Continue at Steady Pace if Oil Price Shock Short-Lived Egyptian Banks Are Well Position...

From unsupported EV software to AI‑driven changes in office use and logistics, tech is reshaping collateral performance. Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Ratings Credit Commentary and Research, and Suzanne Albers, Senior Director in Structured Finance, look at pressure points such as outdated EV systems, shifts in office demand linked to AI adoption, and the widening gap between legacy and modern logi...

Thomas Rookmaaker and Harry Hu evaluate recent youth‑led protests in several Asian countries, driven by concerns over governance, living costs and unemployment, and their implications for sovereign credit profiles and political transitions. Risk of Political Flare-Ups to Linger in 2026 for Some APAC Sovereigns Asia ‘BBB’ Sovereigns Show Strong Growth; Fiscal Risks Diverge Durable Coalition Key to...

Justin Patrie and Sarah Repucci unpack Fitch’s Global Credit Outlook, highlighting resilient credit conditions, pressures in China and Canada, and key risks, including strain on lower‑income U.S. consumers, tariff volatility and geopolitical shocks. Global Credit Resilience to Face Major Tests in 2026 Global Private Credit’s Burgeoning Scale, Complexity to Continue in 2026 Geopolitical Tensions Ra...

Todd Martinez and Josh Grundleger discuss the US ouster of Nicolas Maduro, the revived Monroe Doctrine, and key risks for Latin America, including oil investment, debt restructuring, regional market reactions, and impacts on migration and tourism.

Brian Coulton and Ed Parker discuss Fitch’s Global Economic Outlook, reviewing where the world economy stands at the close of 2025 and key trends for 2026, from AI-driven investment and resilient U.S. equities to China’s sharp investment slowdown.

Lyuba Petrova, Lyle Margolis and Justin Patrie examine bubble risks as equities surge, credit spreads tighten, private credit faces hidden vulnerabilities and AI investment accelerates, though valuations suggest buyers aren’t overpaying.

Shelly Shetty and Todd Martinez analyze Argentina’s mid-term elections, what Milei’s stronger legislative backing means for reforms, and the lingering risks around reserves and external liquidity.

James Longsdon, Head of Global Sovereigns and Supranationals, and Federico Barriga Salazar, Head of Western European Sovereign Ratings, discuss Western Europe’s fiscal divergence, recent upgrades and downgrades, and Fitch’s deficit outlook.

Justin Patrie, Head of Credit Commentary & Research, and Sarah Repucci, Senior Director, Credit Commentary & Research, discuss emerging challenges for the AI-fueled US data center boom, covering investment, rising costs, impact on utilities and more.

Paul Gamble, Head of Middle East and Africa (MEA) Sovereigns, and Cedric Berry, Director, MEA Sovereigns, discuss GCC efforts to diversify their economies beyond oil, and the varied pace of progress across the region.

Justin Patrie and Duncan Innes-Ker discuss how emerging market credits are faring this year amid slower global growth, geopolitical risks, and shifting U.S. policy - highlighting ratings resilience and modest positive momentum.

Justin Patrie and David Prowse discuss key themes from Fitch’s Global Credit Risk Outlook, including slower growth, tariff uncertainty, and weaker credit conditions—as well as the overall ratings resilience amid these challenges.

Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereign Ratings, and Krisjanis Krustins, lead analyst for Japan, discuss Japan’s fiscal outlook, covering the impact of rising bond yields, fiscal populism and long-term spending pressures.

Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, and Ed Parker, Sovereigns Managing Director, discuss Fitch’s mid-year Global Economic Outlook, focusing on global growth forecast updates since April and how tariffs are driving key changes to projections.

The credit outlook for global corporates has worsened in 2025, with 14 sectors and sub-sectors deteriorating at mid-year vs. 5 at end-2024. Justin Patrie and Carla Taylor, Head of Research for the Americas, discuss the drivers and implications.

Paul Gamble, Senior Director of Sovereign Ratings, and Erich Arispe, Head of Emerging Europe Sovereign Ratings, discuss the credit implications and common themes of the 2025/2026 electoral cycle in Central and Eastern Europe.