Excess Returns

First Principles with Andy Constan

Business EN ↓ 3 episodes

First Principles with Andy Constan examines the biggest developments in markets and the economy through the foundational frameworks that drive them. Each month, Andy breaks down the mechanics behind inflation, interest rates, liquidity, growth, and market structure to help investors understand not just what is happening, but how the underlying forces behind markets actually work.

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Excess Returns

Episodes

The $700 Billion Shift | What Happens When Buybacks Turn into Issuance 16.06.2026 59:18

In this episode of First Principles, we break down the changing structure of markets as the IPO window reopens, AI CapEx accelerates, and corporate buybacks shift toward new equity supply. We discuss what the SpaceX IPO says about capital markets, whether AI spending can create disinflationary growth, why the consumer is still holding up, and what could challenge the current market bubble. Andy Co...

How to Invest During a Bubble Regime - Practical Lessons from Market History 21.05.2026 56:10

In this episode of First Principles, Andy Constan explains how investors should think about portfolio construction, risk management and alpha during a bubble regime. We discuss why bubbles create FOMO, why low volatility can make investors take the most risk at the worst time, and how long-only and active investors can prepare for the other side without trying to call the top. Andy Constan on X ht...

Root Conditions. Escalation. Peak | Andy Constan on What Investing Through Five Bubbles Taught Him About AI 13.05.2026 1:04:09

First Principles with Andy Constan launches with a deep dive into market bubbles, AI, semiconductor stocks, and the financial conditions that can turn powerful technological change into a dangerous investment regime. Andy explains how bubbles form, why they are almost impossible to time, how today’s AI boom compares to past episodes like 1987, the dot-com bubble, housing, and the bond bubble, and...