Eurodollar University

Freedom, Truth, and Love: three creative principles distinguished by uninhibited exchange. Is it any coincidence that voluntary exchange is essential to all three? A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Robert Breedlove , freedom maximalist. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Amber Lights " by Chill Cole at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Fre...

Bank balance sheets are expanding in 2021, which is great news if you believe credit is modern money. But a closer look reveals banks are PILING into the SAFEST assets while beating a RETREAT from loans (real economy money). We haven't seen this in three generations. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David P...

Money, a necessary evil seems to be best compliment one can pay it. Starr argues that money, in a world of constraints and choices, helps identify price. And for all the kind words written about "value" let us consider the importance of "price" and spare a kind word about money. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Roger Starr (1918-2001), editorial writer for the New York Times,...

Oil prices are intentionally offered as Inflation Exhibit A, even though at best it is a lagging indicator. In 2008, 2011 and 2018 we saw metal prices turn south while oil kept heading north; oil incorrectly interpreting the economic setting each time. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/...

The Fed and Treasury have seen enough debt ceilings to develop a playbook that can be pieced together from past FOMC transcripts and Congressional subpoenas. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Joseph Wang spent five years as the senior trader on the open markets desk at the Federal Reserve. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Deadlines " by Dylan S...

George Friedman observes that China is embarking on a difficult socioeconomic transition. Paradoxically, the transition will cause observers to underrate the country's strength, in much the same manner as they presently overrate the nation. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures . Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro i...

AnalystDC considers three developments in late-July 2021 that'll affect money markets for years to come: the Fed's Standing Repo Facility, the Group of Thirty recommendations and the Alternative Reference Rates Committte recommendations. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- AnalystDC , the anonymous enjoyer of illiquid credit, bond posting and money markets. Read by Emil Kalinows...

PART 01: The US dollar is rising in value against a collection of currencies (except one). It's disconfirming evidence of sustainable economic recovery; it implies strained USD-funding. And there's still that one key, stable currency - unusually stable; suspiciously stable. PART 02: We review palladium, copper and iron ore - all metals and minerals that peaked in value in May (lumber too).  Some c...

An increased risk-off sentiment, resulting from the Evergrande drama - among several other factors, has perhaps increased the likelihood, as well as accelerated the timeline, of a CNY devaluation. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Maroon Macro , an anonymous global macro hedge fund analyst who is partial to the University of Chicago and writes about the mechanics of the moneta...

An unprecedent increase in household wealth from housing, stocks and cryptocurrencies may have structurally changed the US labor market. The Fed, assuming no structural change, may be running the economy much hotter than they realize. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Joseph Wang spent five years as the senior trader on the open markets desk at the Federal Reserve. Read by Emi...

The impact of Evergrande has caused financial distress to spread faster than Beijing expected, putting pressure on regulators to move quickly to stop the contagion. But they cannot rescue Evergrande’s creditors without also undermining their fight against bad debt. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Michael Pettis , Finance Professor at Peking University and Senior Fellow at Ca...

Jay Powell’s Fed portrays the economy in recovery mode and intends to taper monetary accommodation - yet the US dollar has been rising in value for months. Premature celebration? It reminds Jeff Snider of an episode in 2011 when the FOMC guffawed past the monetary graveyard. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by...

Recent polling data from Alignable reveals a difficult small-business environment. Three regional Fed surveys confirm the softness. Is it merely the passing Delta-Covid? Or the labor-shortage? Will demand in 2022 be able to meet the oncoming wave of goods orders? A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parki...

Like the bond market and the yield curve, the inventory situation is most often forward-looking. Powell is tapering and ignoring the potential of an inventory overhang, pretty much the same way as a few years ago. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " 36mm " by Jobii at Epidemic...

PART 01: US Treasury Bonds have lost a lot of value since August, and especially in the last weeks of September. Is it a taper tantrum? Are foreigners selling lousy Uncle Sam paper? Is it Armageddon (again)? No, this happens—incredibly—'every' August. But why? PART 02: Since 2011, the US Treasury 10-year bond peaks in value during the summer-to-autumn transition. Ignoring the economic context, whe...

The bezzle is the temporary gap between the perceived value of assets and long-term economic value. Economies at times systematically create bezzle, unleashing substantial economic consequences that economists have rarely understood or discussed. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Michael Pettis , Finance Professor at Peking University and Senior Fellow at Carnegie-Tsinghua Cen...

The Bank for International Settlements summarizes the rise and fall of the offshore eurodollar system. Offshore banking, regulatory arbitrage, financial liberalization and financial innovation created the system, which expanded exponentially--at least until 2007. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Robert McCauley , Patrick McGuire and Philip Wooldridge of the Bank for Internati...

Lyn Alden's August newsletter focuses on the ongoing supply chain issues, inflation, and commodities. In many ways, the 2020s decade continues to mirror the 1940s in terms of fiscal policy, monetary policy, and de-globalization. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy . Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " 36mm...

Jeff Snider presents history's great monetary shortages -- the 14th century's Great Bullion Famine, the 20th century's Triffin's Paradox, the 21st century's Eurodollar Famine -- and how human innovation -- ghost money, eurodollar, cryptocurrency -- overcame monetary adversity. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art...

Jeff Snider reviews the recent Bank of Japan experience with quantitative and qualitative easing. The central bank starts off on the wrong foot, focusing on credit quality issues instead of market participants' liquidity preferences and it goes sideways from there. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Par...

The Fed's expected taper is just empty, insignificant theater. The Fed is tapering never once having answered for headwinds, false dawns, and the world’s true wealth repeatedly suffering under stagnation and decline. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Born in the 90's " by Ame...

PART 1: Offshore shadow money funds the global economy, but it lies in the shadows; it's off-balance sheet and off-the-regulatory-radar. A good place to get a sense of offshore shadow money is the Treasury International Capital report. Jeff Snider serves as our guide through July's data - and warnings. PART 2: Interest rate swap spreads are negative. These 'underwater' derivatives indicate very hi...

Karl Marx, the 19th-century German philosopher, economist, historian, sociologist, political theorist, journalist and socialist revolutionary, on the confounding and inverting nature of money and wealth. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Karl Marx. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Born in the 90's " by Ameryh at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT--...

Financial historian Daniel Oliver's essay on real rates, the profligacy of the Federal Reserve, inflation and the path of nominal gold prices. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Daniel Oliver of Myrmikan Capital . Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Born in the 90's " by Ameryh at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Real Rates Go More Negative...

Historian and geopolitical strategist George Friedman asks, 'Why has the United States, the most powerful state (since the Roman Empire) lost three wars in the past 50 years?'  A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. -------HEADS UP------- In October Geopolitical Futures will do a special series on Geopolitics and Economics.  George Friedman and special guests as we dig into the socio-economics of internat...