Eurodollar University

The US Treasury yield curve has inverted, likely because the US economy is weak sauce. But what if we focused solely on shadow-money variables? Can we confirm the inversion warning via measures of shadow-collateral? (Yes) ----EP. 204 REFERENCES---- There Is An Absolutely Solid Collateral Case For What’s Driving Curve Inversion(s) [Part 1]: https://bit.ly/3wzX2JJ Alhambra Investments Blog: https://...

The US Treasury curve has inverted. The countdown to the next American recession has begun. We review what happened, where the inversion is in the yield curve and whether there are enough life jackets for everyone (no). ----EP. 203 REFERENCES---- Another One Inverts, The Retching Cat Reaches Treasuries: https://bit.ly/3KZc9Am Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin RealClear Markets E...

An update on the US Treasury yield and Eurodollar futures curve shapes. Distorted? Contemplative? Grotesque? Retching cat chart pattern? ----EP. 202 REFERENCES---- Odd Curve Shapes, or More Chinese Than Russian: https://bit.ly/3IfGwAG Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 -----SEE ALL EPISODES----- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp...

The 1940s witnessed monstrous increases in consumer prices. But it wasn't inflation. In the 1960s? Smaller increases, but it was inflation. What's the difference? What about today? -----SEE ALL EPISODES----- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ----HEAR ALL EPISODES----- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3n...

You won't believe it but Janet Yellen said in 2013 that narrative supply - not money supply - can be an effective tool. Turns out most Fed action is just popular psychology and the madness of crowds. -----SEE ALL EPISODES----- Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ----HEAR ALL EPISODES----- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://...

Repurchase agreements are short-term collateralized loans made amongst banks. What happens when one party refuses to return the collateral? It's a "fail". They happen in swarms during unhealthy monetary conditions. They're happening now. -----SEE ALL EPISODES----- Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ----HEAR ALL EPISODES----- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: h...

Russia has been told they're out of SWIFT! Kind of. And not right away. And only some Russian banks, kind of. Does it matter? What is SWIFT? ----HEAR ALL EPISODES----- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Reason: https://bi...

Former editor at the Financial Times (Alphaville!) has struck out on her own - why? Is it a commentary on the business press and/or mainstream media and what they refuse to cover? Izabella has lots of questions for Jeff too.

On February 24, 2021 Fedwire broke down for several hours - it was the the feather that broke the economic recovery camel's back. Copper, gold, silver, the yuan, Kiwi dollar, Treasuries, swap spreads, OATs - even bitcoin - all saw their trajectories change for the worse. ------EP. 196 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: Fedwire broke for hours on February 24, 2021 and took recovery down with it. 01:18 Many...

A look at interest rate swap spreads relative to nominal US Treasury yields identifies constrained bank balance sheet capacity. Monetary measures like swap spreads, Eurodollar futures, yield curve flattening are all indicating that the balance of risks is tilting away from recovery and reflation. ------EP. 195 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: Interest rate swap spreads are a peek at bank balance sheet ca...

An insider's view of regulations, bond markets, bank reserves, central banks, quantitative easing, fancy wines, when it's inappropriate to drink cappuccinos, government-guaranteed bank loans and more! Alfonso "Macro Alf" Peccatiello of The Macro Compass joins Jeff Snider (and Emil). ------EP. 194 TOPICS------ 00:00:00 INTRO: Introducing Alfonso Peccatiello, @MacroAlf and The Macro Compass. 00:04:0...

Mohamed El-Erian appeared on Hidden Forces, a great podcast by Demitri Kofinas. But instead of challenging consensus narratives or thinking critically about the power shaping our world El-Erian obfuscated and misdirected Kofinas and the audience about economics, the Fed and history. ------EP. 193 TOPICS------ 00:00:00 INTRO: Reviewing Mohamed El-Erian's appearance on Hidden Forces with Demitri Kof...

Anne Stevenson-Yang has been living in, writing about and/or focusing her work on China for more than 35 years. We discuss: employment not being a bureaucrat's concern, the transition to uneconomic activity, disinterest in simple social improvements, the 20th National Party Congress, and more! ------EP. 191 TOPICS------ 00:00:00 INTRO: Anne Stevenson-Yang spent several decades living, working and...

Jeff Snider & Emil Kalinowski dive into debunking central banking myths, explaining the effects of the past on our current time, and more in this November 2021 episode of Blockworks' "On the Margin" with Mike Ippolito. Jeff Snider & Emil Kalinowski dive into debunking central banking myths, explaining the effects of the past on our current time, and more in this week’s episode of On the Ma...

A collateral call in Belgium! Foreign officials are selling US Treasuries! American banks extending less credit to the rest of the world! Japan borrowing more! These, and other, *nerdy* insights for December 2021 from the Treasury International Capital System! Tell all your friends! ------EP. 190 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: TIC data for December was mixed, some positives, mostly negatives 00:55 Belg...

Consumer inflation expectations peaked in October/November 2021, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations. Market based inflation expectations (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) also peaked then. What in the CPI is going on here? ------EP. 189 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: The Federal Reserve intends to raise short term interest rates because...??? 00:...

Caution! Ignore this market warning at your peril. The Eurodollar futures market inversion had deepened and broadened. Eurodollar yields inverted before, for example in 2000, 2005 and 2018. Turned out that Economic Hades was about 18 months away then. What about now? ------EP. 188 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: The Eurodollar futures curve has deepened AND broadened its inversion. 00:39 The Eurodollar...

The US government bond market appears to be out of step with CPI, a booming economy and money printing by central banks - what gives? We review two Federal Reserve officials explain that QE is very, really, super powerful (and that's why the bond market signals are haywire). ------EP. 187 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: Federal Reserve officials say QE is very effective. 01:18 The US Treasury yield curv...

Journalists Kate Duguid and Eric Platt explain that US government bond markets believe the Federal Reserve will be able to tame inflation. Actually bond markets believe the Fed doesn't know what it's doing AND they believe consumer prices increases are not caused by the Fed. ------EP. 186 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: The Financial Times says the Federal Reserve will control inflation; Jeff reacts. 01...

China's 2021 trade surpluses were gigantic, so why isn't the yuan surging too? We review China's 2014-21 trade and currency experience from the perspective of the eurodollar, the international reserve currency that once intermediated trade but now intermediates capital. ------EP. 185 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: Capital flows drive trade, not vice versa. A review of the Chinese trade surplus. 03:39 T...

After Today’s FOMC, Yield Curve Is Already As Flat As It Was In Mar ’18 **Without A Single Rate Hike Yet** https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/01/26/after-todays-fomc-yield-curve-is-already-as-flat-as-it-was-in-mar-18-without-a-single-rate-hike-yet/

Oil prices are up and so you would expect that Treasury Inflation Protected Security breakevens (inflation expectations) are ALSO up... but they are not. Like Bitcoin, TIPS are ignoring oil and focusing on something bigger, something worse?

Retail inventory grew at a tremendous pace month-over-month in December 2021 in America. Overall inventory growth was so strong that it contributed overwhelmingly to a strong (?) increase in US GDP for the Q4. But is this actually good news?

The Eurodollar futures curve inverted in December 2021 - what has it done since? Also, how to interpret the US Treasury yield curve in "three easy steps!" Lastly, did the Fed cause the price of (Buffalo) (chicken) wings to rise?

PART 1: Inflation @ 7% but...  PART 2: Bonds Losing Value - Worst in 2 Years! - but...  PART 3: Year 15 of Mass Formation Psychosis (We Explain Why)  None of the "Mass Formation Psychosis" interviews with Joe Rogan, Chris Martenson, Robert Malone or Mattias Desmet explained WHY and WHEN. In this episode we do: a 15-year (so far) worldwide economic depression, only the third in the past 150 years.