Eurodollar University

China's economic results for July were "gruesome", the rest of the year not been much better. That's troubling enough but when the yuan doesn't move a scintilla for weeks it suggests the People's Bank of China is fighting hard to prevent a depreciation -- maybe even a devaluation? ****DISCLOSURES**** Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Finan...

Is there an unstoppable transformation—à la the internet in the 1990s—taking place in mining, minerals and energy? What are the supply and demand fundamentals for lithium?  Where might an investor look to place some medium- to long-term bets? Is the time now, or is it still a bit early? ****EP. 278 REFERENCES**** Sean Maher Website: https://www.entext.com/ Sean Maher Twitter: https://twitter.com/s...

The calendar spread (1- and 3-month) in the oil futures market (West Texas Intermediate) is compressing and is THIS close to being in contango. That would be the oil market saying, 'We don't see the demand. Keep your barrels—don't call us, we'll call you.' ****DISCLOSURES**** Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA)...

A recent US Treasury auction for one-month Treasury Bills showed heavy premiums paid by the market to secure the global monetary system's most desired financial collateral. It signals ongoing collateral / credit / money scarcity, so says Ben Bernanke (in a roundabout way). ****DISCLOSURES**** Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Adv...

The European Sovereign Debt Crisis of 2011-12 was the final nail in the post-Cold War Globalization coffin; it proved beyond a doubt that a global money/credit/collateral crisis was not a one-time event (the GFC) but a permanent, reoccurring disorder. Now, it maybe back. ****DISCLOSURES**** Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advis...

If you all feel bad about the economy than the economy will be bad and you all are acting weird, so says a recent New York Times opinion column. We discuss whether concrete economic signals / data precede "vibes". Also, is the Federal Reserve the key "vibes" emitter? ****DISCLOSURES**** Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors,...

Today the repurchase agreement is the backstop, the 'lender of last resort', for the global monetary system. Over a century ago it was the Federal Reserve that created the repo market. But funnily enough, since its creation they have largely ignored it. ****SPONSOR**** Purchase shares in great masterpieces from artists like Pablo Picasso, Banksy, Andy Warhol, and more. Skip the waitlist and invest...

On August 9, 2007 the second largest bank in Europe - BNP Paribas - kicked off the Global Financial Crisis (2007-09) and the Silent Depression (2007-2?). It started with three illiquid money market funds. ****DISCLOSURES**** Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promote...

The Payroll Report (Establishment Survey) is not wrong but it is inappropriate. Heavy statistical dampening prevents the payroll report from showing economic inflections. Meanwhile, the Household Survey - note statistically constrained - is emitting recession warnings. ****DISCLOSURES**** Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisor...

Central bankers use ‘Term Premia’ to cover for their grave, fundamental mistakes: A) not understanding bond markets, and B) putting themselves at the center of the monetary system. ****DISCLOSURES**** Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any...

The European Central Bank raised rates in July 2008 because consumer prices were too high; the Global Financial Crisis climax came next. They did it again, in July 2011, for the same reason; the European Sovereign Debt crisis appeared shortly after. Here we go again, a July 2022 rate hike, same reasons; what happens next? ****EP. 269 REFERENCES**** A European Rate Hike Is the Global Economy's Kiss...

James Bullard, St. Louis Fed chief, says the yield curve is twisted by the inflation surge, and may not be a recession message. Indeed, markets are twisting it because they have confidence the central bank will get control of consumer prices. ----EP. 268 REFERENCES---- Derby’s Take: Fed’s Bullard Says Yield-Curve Signal Might Not Be So Ominous: https://on.wsj.com/3PNKFAc RealClear Markets Essays:...

On May 20, 1982 the Fed held an emergency conference call for which transcripts are missing (on purpose? by accident?) to solve the "Drysdale Problem". They 'solved' it by focusing on the trees and ignoring the forest. ----EP. 267 REFERENCES---- Since When Does the Fed Funds Rate Have Anything To Do With Anything?: https://bit.ly/3ougulL RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times...

What if Japan's bond and currency markets aren't really about Japan at all? ----EP. 266 REFERENCES---- Global Euro$ Confirmation: http://www.marketsinsiderpro.com/ RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRf -------THE EPISODES------- YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly...

The US Treasury Department's Treasury International Capital report for the wild month of May 2022 goes a long way to describing our current economic and monetary predicament.  ----EP. 265 REFERENCES---- When Global Banks Won't TIC: http://www.marketsinsiderpro.com/ RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRf -------THE EPISODES------- YouTube: https...

On December 1, 2021 the Eurodollar Futures yield curve inverted by a single basis point, which set off recession warning sirens, claxons and clucking at Eurodollar University. Now? The curve is 120 basis points inverted - a warning that something more than 'just a recession' is plausible (possible? probable?!!!!!!). ----SPONSOR---- Purchase shares in great masterpieces from artists like Pablo Pica...

The US Treasury yield curve continues to spread and has reached the 52-week bill. The Fed is being told by the market it will be CUTTING rates, soon. ----EP. 263 REFERENCES---- RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRf -------THE EPISODES------- YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: h...

Foreign institutions have been merrily losing money on US Treasury holdings for years, buying high and selling low - are they insane? No, their investment behavior reveals that these bonds are used for managing risk, global systemic risk. ----EP. 262 REFERENCES---- The Rest of the World's Dollar-Weighted Return on U.S. Treasurys: http://www.nber.org/papers/w30089 RealClear Markets Essays: https://...

The Economist recounts how the pandemic led to a goods-consumption-boom and whether post-pandemic economics means normalization, or a services boom or a recession. ----EP. 261 REFERENCES---- Could a shift from goods to services ease inflation?: https://econ.st/3OYNOwQ RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRf -------THE EPISODES------- YouTube: ht...

The Economist admits to, warns of and draws attention to Britain's 15-year economic depression, labeling it a "slow-burning crisis", "long-standing", "stagnation nation" and "a chronic disease". There are many devastating socioeconomic, geopolitical consequences. It's not just Britain, it's the world. ----EP. 260 REFERENCES---- Low economic growth is a slow-burning crisis for Britain: https://econ...

The US labor market offers both optimistic and pessimistic data points regarding the economic outlook. Does the value of the US dollar break the tie? How do sovereign bond yields in Europe fit into the picture? ----EP. 259 REFERENCES---- Steve Van Metre: http://www.portfolioshield.net/ RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRf -------THE EPISODES-...

Steven Van Metre and Jeff Snider have partnered together to bring financial information, investment advice and monetary education to the public. ----EP. 258 REFERENCES---- Steve Van Metre: http://www.portfolioshield.net/ RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRf -------THE EPISODES------- YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4d...

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is forecasting the median result of its model predicts negative output growth in 2022 and 2023. ----EP. 257 REFERENCES---- Sorry Chairman Powell, Even FRBNY Now Has To Forecast Serious and Seriously Rising Recession Risk: https://bit.ly/39Syy5p The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2022: https://nyfed.org/3OmvQUP Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/3w...

A comprehensive report by the Federal Reserve - the Financial Accounts of the US - reveals that there has been no material change in rate of money creation. Not in the US (on par with an incrementally increasing but still PATHETIC 2007-21 trend), not in the rest of the world (equal to 2007-21 garbage rates). ----EP. 256 REFERENCES---- The Everything Data’s (Z1) Verdict: Not Inflation, Only More Of...

Japanese and German trade data suggest the world is suffering through a price illusion: trade value is up because prices are up but actual trade by volume / trade by weight is falling (at least in Germany and Japan). Also, commodity prices suggest global slowdown/recession is approaching. ----EP. 255 REFERENCES---- Everything Hitting The Global (eurodollar) Wall: https://bit.ly/3QPvlE3 Alhambra In...