Eurodollar University

#interestrates #inflation #deflation #recession #inversion #ratehikes  A slew of Wall Street types are getting impatient - and cold feet - waiting for a recession they're not sure is happening. The market is sure causing them to wonder if the market is just wrong with its massive inversion. No, this time is never different.  Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre If Powell W...

#dollar #brics #gold #currency #money #eurodollar  Next month, the BRICS summit is going to introduce a new common currency and one backed by gold. Or is it? Before it even begins, the group seems like it will have to proceed without the I and the S. Or any monetary sense.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis The Eurodollar Standard Isn't Going Anywhere Anytime Soon https://www.real...

#recession #inflation #deflation #taiwan #semiconductor #apple  Taiwan Semiconductor reported pretty awful results blaming the global macroeconomic environment, specifically singling out inventory bloat as well as China's failed reopening. The effects aren't being limited to that side of the Pacific; the spillover is already affecting projects in the United States. We aren't supposed to say "reces...

#recession #china #germany #trade #export #deflation #bonds  Germany reported trade data exposing the resilient economy fallacy as a product of nothing more than the temporary nominal price illusion. Volumes are down huge and as values fall there's no more cushion from lack of activity. This isn't about Germany so much, either, as we can see in trade w/the German's biggest customers: China and the...

#recession #deflation #inflation #retailsales #industrial #consumer  US Industrial Production fell for the second month in a row, dropping the Fed's index below the same period a year ago. A negative yearly change in IP has accompanied all 18 of the economic contractions in the NBER's library. Only six times in over a century has IP been negative on an annual basis without any full-scale recession...

#china #recession #inflation #deflation #industrial #spending #money  China's GDP report as well as its monthly statistics confirm first reopening isn't just completely dead, instead the entire economy is already rolling over and heading toward more weakness. The global recession combined with China's own problems - which weren't really about the pandemic - have left the Chinese exposed to a dange...

#recession #inflation #deflation #globaltrade #india #credit #bank India reported a huge drop in exports, one of its worst on record. A major US food producer says demand has worsened to the point some of its brands are having to cut prices. American banks are now scaling back certain loans. What do all these have in common? US consumers and the deflationary recession. Eurodollar University's Mone...

#recession #inflation #deflation #taxes #employment #unemployment Individual income tax payments to Uncle Sam are running almost half a trillion (with a "T") behind same months in FY 2022. Withholdings are way off and claimed refunds are way up. At the same time, the June CPI showed broad-based disinflation and a little deflation. These two results aren't unrelated. Eurodollar University's weekly...

Great Inflation 2, or soft landing? Those are the only two choices we're given for #inflation #deflation #recession when neither of those was ever likely. The reasons why the soft landing isn't happening and another Great Inflation simply can't are easily found in historical comparisons.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: El-Erian Says Soft-Landing Narrative Gains Steam...

The Chinese aren't taking their #eurodollar #dollar woes weakening yuan lying down #recession. But they aren't doing a whole lot meaningful about it, either. Why and why not? That's the (euro)dollar conundrum. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis PBOC: Notice of the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision on Extending the Deadline of Relevant Poli...

#Consumer #spending is down already and now we're getting data which shows by how much, #recession. There's no #inflation here. Disney theme parks are empty, consumer #credit is actually contracting, the bad news is just getting started. Steve Van Metre nailed it when he pointed out services and vacation weakness on this channel just a couple months ago.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro...

China reported some of the worst #inflation consumer and producer price estimates in its modern history, within range of the worst parts of 2009. Such damaging #deflation shows #globalrecession #recession getting worse, and worse for everyone outside China it is becoming more synchronized.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Reuters: UPDATE 1-Goldman Sachs raises 2023 China GDP gro...

It's the greatest story no one wants to tell. Money printing. Inflation. Deflation. Interest rates. Crash. The Fed. What is QT?  What was QE really? They're all lies and you don't have to take my word for it. I've got all the numbers, their math, and the truth.  Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre Forbes Advisor: Quantitative Tightening (QT) Explained https://www.forbes.c...

Saudi Arabia extended its #oil production cuts for another month. Given what the Japanese reported for #income, not hard to see why #recession Plus, US bank #credit crunch accelerated at the end of June when #lending fell  further and cash cushions rose. #globalrecession   Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.universi...

June #payrolls #jobs data stumbled badly. Worse, previous months were revised a lot lower erasing prior acceleration. The #unemployment rate went lower, though that was the lone bright spot (which you shouldn't consider as one). US #recession is more than fully on track which raises alarms given how recessions usually work in labor markets.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Remar...

Central banks want rates to go up but markets have largely resisted. Upping the ante, the FOMC admits there's going to be a recession but claims it will raise its rates anyway. As a result, this pushes the Fed pivot somewhat further into the future by raising the bar for any rate cuts.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: Bets on ‘Year of the Bond’ Persist in Face of Stil...

Central banks have said inflation risks are all in core price numbers. Here's yet another core instead deeply in deflation, so bad it fell at a rate we haven't seen since the worst part of the Great Recession. And though it may "only" be a producer price figure, history conclusively shows that it - not core CPIs - is the one to follow.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: h...

The manufacturing recession has reached its critical point where producers have to decide to keep workers or start laying them off. Unemployment is now rising because the second half economic rebound just isn't happening. Instead, work is disappearing as new sales fail to materialize forcing companies worldwide to make their choice. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis S&P Global...

Federal bank regulators are issuing guidance to banks to do everything they can potentially limit any credit losses. With recession bearing down and loan portfolios exhibiting initial signs of major stress, authorities are clearly seeking to limit the public fallout in another can-kicking scheme.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https:...

Despite stubborn core inflation rates in the US and Europe, each economy is exhibiting more and more definite signs of recession and deflation. Unemployment is up in Europe's biggest economies and US consumer spending has sunk. Core consumer price rates never represent resilient labor markets.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://w...

While Q1 GDP was revised higher for the US, that's looking back at what is now ancient history. Looking ahead at Q2 and beyond, not just recession perhaps worse in huge part because of what's being uncovered behind the growing credit crunch. The Fed's stress test uncovered substantial future risks.   Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Federal Reserve Stress Test Results https://www...

The deflation and banking crisis which really began last fall that has now become a full-blown credit crunch and recession was far more about collateral shortages than anything else. It sure wasn't rate hikes. Not only have yield curves and interest rates told the truth, one central banker in Europe admits to it, too.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Speech by Isabel Schnabel, M...

China's yuan currency has been incredibly weak to the point authorities in Beijing have been unable to successfully intervene against the dollar. It spells worldwide trouble given falling CNY is a dependable global recession and crisis signal. The worse it becomes for the Chinese, the more deflation we should expect elsewhere.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://tw...

The global economy is accelerating to the downside into more than just a short, shallow recession. It is instead sped along in the deflationary direction by the fallout from the March banking crisis which continues to spread all over the world. Credit crunch. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: The World’s Empty Office Buildings Have Become a Debt Time Bomb https://www.bl...

Economic conditions have worsened recently indicating the economy shifting gears from shallow downturn to full-blown recession. With new sales sinking, companies all over are ready to face their decision-point on workers and layoffs.  Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinside...