Eurodollar University

Housing prices in China plunged in May, accelerating sharply after April's big drop indicating the situation in the real estate market is getting closer to becoming disorderly. There will be fallout across the world should that happen, as there already is across China's economy as the latest data also showed.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg China Real Estate, Producti...

Consumer confidence has dropped sharply over the past few months as Americans are now more concerned about jobs and incomes than prices. The shift has been so pronounced that even members of the mainstream media are questioning FOMC officials. Hardly strong and resilient, there's rising unemployment and declining confidence mixed with a bevy corporate warnings. Eurodollar University's conversation...

Conventional 'wisdom' says that when US$ interest rates go down the dollar goes down with them. Yet, it hasn't been uncommon to find Treasury yields falling as the dollar's exchange value jumps. When that has happened, nothing good comes from it. We're starting to see what looks to be that scenario setting up right now.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.uni...

Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months. Sign up below: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates I said the payroll number is wrong and Jay Powell of all people agrees. But if the real question is how wrong, that's where the debate is even though it should already be settled. There is plenty of evidence the US is tilting in the dire...

Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months. Sign up below: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates Walgreens is the latest Big Name to cut prices because Americans have run out of money. As the company's prices go down, those will add even more to the disinflationary environment; and that's the bad side of smaller price changes. Today...

Last week's ECB rate cut was...odd. Sure, officials had said for months they were going to do it. Yet, the conditions that would have to be met were not. Policymakers went ahead anyway and this past weekend's developments are a big Big Picture reason why.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Italy’s Tajani Calls for Quick Second ECB Cut After June Move https://www.bloomber...

Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months. Sign up below: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates Consumer credit has historically been a solid recession signal, particularly how consumers alter their usage of credit cards. Some of that by choice, for many it is the bank's. Either way, when this happens it is more compelling evidence...

Roaring Kitty is not the problem, nor is Gamestop the company and its stock. All are symptoms of a degraded model that increasingly rewards all the wrong behaviors. Stocks have become lottery tickets, the pie-in-the-sky way out for way too many Americans otherwise trapped in a real economy that continues to leave them behind - as the latest employment report proves.  Eurodollar University's conver...

This has never happened before. Sure, the payroll data and CPS series have diverged before but this is something entirely new. The fact that it runs contrary to decades of history makes our determination rather easy and simple: the labor market noose is tightening.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Big US Job Gains Is Out of Sync With Recent Weaker Economic Data https:/...

After two years unequivocally stating "inflation" was the world's biggest threat and crisis, and that nothing short of full victory would suffice, now all of a sudden Europe (and Canada) is changing it up, cutting rates even as price estimates remain well short of their standard while also appearing to be stuck that way. What is really going on here? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analy...

More labor market cracks are showing and expanding. Even some of the data which has been resilient may have to be substantially changed given new information that just came to light. Labor weakness continues to clear out the FOMC setting the Treasury market up the next rally - though it isn't quite there yet.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ADP National Employment https://adpem...

As more weak data pours in on the US economy, the more clarity it offers on the future path of ST interest rates. As that clears up, market rates are moving lower. But why? Mainstream theory demands we consider rates as entirely supply or demand factors (like QE). Yet, the past couple years have thoroughly disproven the idea. Rates are going lower because that's where and what the fundamentals are...

A rare warning strikes the gasoline market in another confirmation of economic weakness, one primary factor which forced OPEC this past weekend to extend its production restrictions. On top of those, big changes to US income estimates further corroborating the deterioration, as did a surprise drop in one of the more critical sentiment signals. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Reu...

Weak economic results continue to roll in, matching other sources of information about the US economy. From the Federal Reserve's own account and data to more corporate reports. They all have one thing - and one word - in common. GDP revisions plus the first update on the state of GDI and its bigtime mismatch.  Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.universit...

Tensions are rising. Aggressive actions are becoming commonplace. This isn't just sabre-rattling and posturing as war is a real possibility. It's not difficult to see why, at least what some of the motivation is. China's central bank is publicly discussing even more highly unusual steps to try to reign in the unfolding financial and economic backlash which was just confirmed by even more data.  Eu...

More corporate mayhem brought on by the "uncertain market environment." Stocks of both Salesforce and Kohl's were hammered today as each company demonstrates in their own way just what the updated GDP numbers suggest. That latter data report also includes GDI which is almost certainly closer to the real economy all these other sources are projecting.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Anal...

More CRE developments today and last week this time with a focus on Europe. New reports indicate losses are coming soon and data from the ECB shows why there are so many concerns. We also have the latest bank lending figures which show more troubling signs under the cover of 'extend and pretend.' Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ECB Commercial real estate and financial stability...

More data released today which shows the US economy has taken a turn for the worse. Consumers are running out of options and are turning in huge proportions to alternate means to stay afloat. One of those alternatives, however, is being closed off as the American banks are now actively cutting back risk while going on a buying binge for safety.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis n...

What's misinformation about the economy? It's a well-known fact policymakers and Economists outright lie about any situation. But why? They say it's for your own good. The lies are beginning to pile up so much that officials now have to lie about their lies, including the very theory behind all of this especially when some of the theoreticians who came up with it no longer want to be the very purv...

It doesn't help that policymakers and Economists quite openly admit they will and even should lie to you about the state of the economy. But to go so far as to call legitimate and widely-shared criticism misinformation is taking this too far. The reason it is going this way is just how difficult the situation has become, which brings us back to the first point: who's actually telling the truth? Eu...

After months of silence, a couple of critical developments from the beleaguered commercial real estate sector show up all at once. For the first time since the Global not-Financial Crisis, a senior tranche of a CLO took losses - a lot of losses - while redemptions threaten to force liquidations at one of the spaces more important CRE funds. Not good first signs for the bubble unwind. Eurodollar Un...

On top of dumping Treasuries (which I covered in detail in a previous video https://youtu.be/j00_S1iug9c), China's also dumping its excess production on the rest of the world. The tactic has become so pervasive governments worldwide are responding with more than idle threats. But what are they really worried about given this means cheaper stuff and lower prices?  Eurodollar University's Money &amp...

The retail giant's latest earnings report confirmed...well, pretty much everything. Inflation risks, consumer capacities, the direction of interest rates and more. Target's results help setting the debate on prices while also dovetailing right in with a whole bunch of the latest figures on especially gasoline and even rents.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Target Corp First Qua...

There is a widespread feeling that something doesn't 'feel' right about the economic situation. While the official world vehemently denies it, they have every incentive not to admit the truth. There are various ways and methods to quantify living standards, especially material standards. Using officials' own methodology, we find the 'feeling' is very well grounded in material fact(s). Eurodollar U...

Apple becomes just latest corporation to report results in line with recent macro statistics. That list now includes Home Depot and even today's Red Lobster bankruptcy. People are struggling and businesses are noticing and feeling the impact. But how far has it gone? Some other metrics are not encouraging.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Apple Second Quarter Earnings https://ww...