Eurodollar University

What's in a single number? For this one, a whole lot of confirmation plus warning. Consumer sentiment has famously crashed and this one figure holds the key to why. Everything else that's happening comes down to this single deficiency.  Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Canadian payrolls were dismal in April, including the biggest two-month collapse in private jobs since the lockdowns. It isn't just sentiment. While pessimism has soared, results from around the real economy is backing that up with hard data. Not just Canada, also Mexico.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Jeremy Rudd Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflatio...

Former hardcore hawk, the Bank of England pulled ahead of the Federal Reserve by rejoining the global race to the bottom. And it did so with what is being called a weird three-way split. The split was neither weird nor much of one. Instead what BoE did - and why - has already shown up here in the US. The latest confirmation comes from the Fed's very own data where job fears have exploded for the s...

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:  http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Insiders are looking for the exits. Short selling sharks are circling. Regulated banks are majorly exposed to this credit segment, another one deep within the shadows. Could this explain why market signals r...

US sovereign CDS prices are soaring, not relenting after jumping during April. While mainstream sources will say that's this dollar-ditching stuff, neither the track record for CDS nor empirical evidence agrees. Government credit default swap premiums are set by one factor, and it has everything to do with the banking system.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Sovereign and bank C...

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:  http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Another major safe haven currency has exploded higher, not just in early April but here in early May. It's gone so far already the local monetary authority has had to intervene. Over in Switzerland, the coun...

The April employment report...wasn't what everything thought it was. Not even close. What has changed is the narrative surrounding what are shaky numbers all the way around. The question everyone is asking isn't if the labor market is "good enough", it's now whether it is "bad enough." Here's what the data actually says about that.  Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre https://w...

Japan was, they said, on the cusp of generational shift. The real outlier in a growing tide of reversals, BoJ was still hiking still anticipating an inflationary recovery. It has all come crashing down, globally synchronized. But not before one final plot twist.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:  http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ The Treasury Secretary spoke through the financial media to Jay Powell. He had a very simple message for the Fed Chair: pay attention to the 2s. And Ronald McDonald. It's not just the Treasury market. If onl...

A slew of economic reports from around the biggest global economies. Starting with US GDP, then Mexico, Germany and Europe then finally some critical macro data from China. There is indeed a common thread running through all of them, and it has markets spooked: CtG hit a new multi-year low barely above the 2020 lows.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC Private payroll growth s...

Another day, another crash; or crashes. Conference Board expectations plunged to their lowest level since 2011. Another Fed PMI plummets. Two-year Treasury yields hit their lows. All pointing to that Beveridge transition. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Conference Board Consumer Confidence April 2025 https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Apr-2025...

If you were to go off of only data collected by the Federal Reserve on the economy, you'd be left with no other option than to see it at best on the doorstep of full-blown recession. Yet, officials argue inflation anyway. The real question is where all this information and evidence instead fits the "labor curve." Unfortunately, the Fed's numbers all fall on flat.  Eurodollar University's Money &am...

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:  http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ While other airlines were pulling their forecasts afraid to tell the truth and preferring to hide under behind "uncertainty", Southwest's CEO bluntly stated there's a recession. And that's exactly what is st...

Weakness in key Asian bellwether has authorities there panicking into bailouts, setting its central on course to be the next major to head into "historically" low interest rates. That's not all, there's already spillover from the tariff shock in China where reports show work stoppages and factory closings. And rates there are right back near record lows.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro...

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:  http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Walmart isn't sitting on tariffs. They instead rolling back more prices understanding what Chipotle just found out the hard way. The burrito bowl restaurant reported its first sales decline since the lockdow...

While the whole world seems convinced the rest of it is rotating away from Treasuries, the actual evidence unequivocally shows something very different. This isn't a one-time relationship, either. Instead, a deep fundamental basis that connects repo, interest rates foundations, global banks, and the recent deflationary developments.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Tra...

Another day, another major warning this time once again from the Swiss. This one is a critical dollar signal. Even though the mainstream gets it completely backward, that diminish the significance of the surge. Plus, it is being corroborated by others along with changes to macro interpretations even among official bodies like the IMF. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis SNB's Martin...

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:  http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ We're moving out of the theoretical impacts from tariffs and global weakness and into the reality of the situation. The first data from April is coming in from a variety of sources. China is seeing major rea...

Foreign governments are selling large quantities of Treasury securities, including the Chinese. Several commentators have therefore suggested there is a growing probability China devalues the yuan. While all of these results and possibilities are indeed related, not all foreigners are selling dollar assets. According to the same data, this group has been a buying hand over fist.  Eurodollar Univer...

Anyone looking to buy gold really needs to contact today's video sponsor, our friends over at DefytheGrid, using the link below: https://defythegrid.com/c/eurodollaruniversity/ Make sure you use Coupon Code: eurodollaruniversity A return to historic low interest rates in Europe is now practically guaranteed. Chances for ultra-low and maybe even zero is becoming too much to ignore. More importantly...

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:  http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ There are way too many critical financial and monetary signals at crisis levels right now. The 2008 or 2020 comparisons are all over the place. The latest to reach these numbers is derived from silver. By it...

Anyone looking to by gold really needs to contact today's video sponsor, our friends over at DefytheGrid , using the link below: https://defythegrid.com/c/eurodollaruniversity/ Make sure you use Coupon Code: eurodollaruniversity A big move in Japan today, with yields dropping and the yen rising. Both were matched by some truly grim developments and warnings from around the world, everything from A...

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:  http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Central bankers all over the world kept saying, nah, we’re not going to do it this time. They weren’t going to race to the bottom, cutting their interest rates back down to historical lows. And the data keep...

Ray Dalio says he believes the economy is already on the edge of a full-blown recession already, and he's hardly alone. However, Dalio also told Meet The Press his main worry is that recession economy getting slammed by a crisis. While Mr. Dalio means persistently higher interest rates, we know that's not what the real markets are pricing even if ultimately this would lead to exactly what he's war...

Consumer confidence plummeted to second lowest on record for a series that dates back to 1952 as American workers are afraid for their jobs in way the economy hasn't seen since the worst months of 2009. If that wasn't enough, both consumer and producer price indexes for March declined into deflation...in spite of tariffs.  Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre University of Michig...