Eurodollar University

PepsiCo just reported earnings. And buried inside a perfectly standard corporate press release was one of the most important sentences you'll hear about the American economy this year. CEO Ramon Laguarta said, and I'm quoting directly here: *"I think the consumer is worse than what we had anticipated, and it's driven mainly by gas prices."* That's not a fringe analyst. That's the chief executive o...

HSBC just did something that should make everyone in credit markets stop and ask one very uncomfortable question. If there is nothing to worry about with private credit…why is one of world’s biggest banks pulling back from funding the funds that make it work? According to reporting from the Financial Times, HSBC has told some private credit borrowers that it will not renew their credit facilities....

Walmart is cutting prices on thousands of products, not doing the Fed’s inflation theory any favors. Coca-Cola. Pepsi. Laundry detergent. Lawn mowers. You name it. This is great news for consumers who have been hit with the gasoline shock. Here we have the biggest retailer in America lowering prices. The real story, though, is why Walmart is doing it. We’ve been warned by the markets and curves ab...

We just got a couple major updates that are connect some more dots on what is the biggest story in the global economy, all connecting to China. The oil market has undergone a radical – and I mean radical – change over the past few weeks. It first showed up last Thursday and is still going her today. Earlier this morning, Saudi Arabia comes out with a big announcement it is cutting the benchmark pr...

Today, we’re looking at one of the most intense and surprising signals coming out of global markets right now: the oil curve has gone almost perfectly flat. That may sound technical, but it is a huge development. In a normal shortage environment, especially after the kind of historic supply disruption and record backwardation we just saw, near-term oil should trade at a sustained premium. Instead,...

The private credit bust is now starting to spread into AI and the AI buildout which up to now has been mostly financed by these shadow banks. The reason for it spreading is simple – the run on the shadow banks hasn’t abated at all, with our favorite sad bird the latest to disclose laughably huge withdrawal requests. The danger for AI has always been the almost unlimited money it required to reach...

There is no way to spin this, not that everyone won’t try. The June employment report did not just come in weak or just miss expectations. It wasn’t a little cooling after a decent stretch. No — the June jobs report strongly suggests the worst-case payback for the labor market is now unfolding. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -----------------------------------------------------...

Thanks to Monarch for partnering with me! Start your free trial and get 50% off your first year of total money clarity using my link https://monarchmoney.yt.link/L7x80By or code euro50 for 50% Off Monarch Core tier. Microsoft just announced another round of job cuts — thousands more layoffs — and almost immediately, the internet had its explanation ready. AI. “AI is taking the jobs.”  “White-colla...

European banks are doing something that looks irrational, preparing for something big while the rest of the mainstream focuses on the wrong people. The European Central Bank just raised its policy rate a few weeks ago, and officials over there in Frankfurt are warning they may hike again as they’re still fixated on the inflation risk from the recent energy shock. The European banking system is not...

The Japanese yen just fell to a forty-year low, and this has everyone talking, the government worried, because no one really knows what it means. What makes this so important is not just the level of the exchange rate. It is the fact that this is happening after Japan already tried almost everything that was supposed to stop it. That is the real issue, the government is being run over by a currenc...

Bitcoin just broke down again — falling below $60k to levels we haven’t seen in nearly two years. But here’s the strange part: this may not really be a Bitcoin story. Because if you pull up the chart of BlackRock you start to see something unexpected. Bitcoin and BlackRock stock haven’t just been moving in the same general direction…they’ve been tracking each other in a way that looks a lot less l...

When most people hear the words “free market capitalism,” they immediately think of Wall Street. They picture stock traders yelling across a trading floor, financial news channels, quarterly earnings reports, and various asset prices flashing across a screen. And because that is the image people have in their heads, they often assume that capitalism means whatever happens in financial markets. Not...

Gold is getting liquidated again. Silver, too. Why? The dollar is spiking. But why is the dollar spiking? Same reason TIPS are screaming and reinversion on the Treasury curve has become a very real possibility. The issue isn't those da*n dots, it's dollars. Ledger eurodollars and all these are nothing more than different perspectives of the same growing deflation tendencies.  ---------------------...

The most important number in private credit right now is not a default rate. It’s not a dividend yield or the size of the market. It’s **16.8%**. That is how much of Apollo Debt Solutions’ outstanding shares investors asked the firm to buy back in the second quarter. The reason that number is such a big deal is because last quarter, redemption requests were already high at around **11%**. So this...

Britain just lost another prime minister. Keir Starmer, the man who came to power in 2024 with one of the biggest election victories in modern British history, resigned today after less than two years in office. But this is not just some Westminster drama. The real question today is this: Are President Trump and Republicans in Congress watching? Are they paying attention? Are they next? Eurodollar...

Swiss bond yields are almost back at zero. The key two-year instrument yields just a couple of basis points and is very likely going to be negative again relatively soon. As we know, Swiss interest rates have very little to do with Switzerland. As a global money center, this is where money goes when it doesn’t want to be anywhere else – even to the point international financials are willing to acc...

Something very strange is happening in global markets and in particular one key eurodollar signal that hardly anyone pays much attention to. Everywhere you look, investors are acting like the party is back on. U.S. stocks are surging. Tech stocks are ripping. Semiconductors are 1999-ing it right now. But then there is Hong Kong. Its main stock index, the Hang Seng is not joining the celebration. I...

Oil prices are down big. And if you only looked at the headline, the explanation seems obvious: Iran peace deal, supply normalization, geopolitical risk premium coming out. Except that is not what the market is really saying. Or should I say markets plural. There is a lot going on across various curves that shed a very different light on the crude plunge. Big changes in Treasuries, huge, huge shif...

Private credit is changing again. And this time, the story is not just that investors are still trying to pull money out. That is still happening, of course, with BlackRock the latest name too see a huge run. But now there is another problem. It is not only that current investors want out. It is that new investors aren’t coming in. That is a much bigger shift. Eurodollar University's Money & M...

China just hit another record, though not the kind officials want to talk about. Not record growth. Not record confidence. Not record consumer spending. A record decline in household borrowing. Chinese households are not just borrowing less. They are pulling back at a pace we have not seen before in comparable data. And that is the real warning because this is exactly where China’s worsening downt...

Most people think they understand the dollar. When the dollar goes up, they think that means America is strong. Good economy. Good policy. Maybe the Federal Reserve is doing a good job and investors are “choosing America.” And when the dollar goes down, they think that must be bad. Inflation. Debasement. Money printing. The end of dollar dominance and the famous “dollar doom” story. But what if th...

India is now being forced to ration diesel fuel for the first time maybe ever. At the same time, global stocks of crude oil are at their lowest since 2003. Even inventories here in the US have been drained to levels we haven’t witnessed in 20 years. In other words, as hopes for a peace deal with Iran rise, our attention must now turn to this critical next stage. While the conflict might subside, h...

The European Central Bank just raised rates on Thursday into an economy that is already shrinking. That sentence should sound familiar, because Europe has done this before. Not once. Twice. The two questions we now want to ask are, first, whether the ECB’s action will pull others including the Fed into this rate hiking gambit. Second, how long could they hang on hawking before they have to turn ar...

Gold and silver have been crushed this week and we need to not only explain why, just as important what this drop is telling us about more than precious metals.  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Webinar June 2026: Why Smart Investors Keep Missing Every Major Economic Turning Point It isn't that they're buying the wrong assets. They're using a broke...

The Asian currency crisis is escalating and it’s forcing governments all over the region to get desperate. From India to Indonesia, South Korea and Japan, their situations are becoming a genuine threat to stability. When a country’s currency falls because of a dollar shortage, it is not just a foreign-exchange problem. It is not just a bad day on a currency chart. It can become a destabilizing fee...