Energy Markets Daily

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday, February 10, 2026 — Technicals. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI bouncing inside a symmetrical triangle. Primary downtrend intact until breakout. SUPPORT LEVELS: - $63.00-$63.58 triangle bottom - $62.00 ascending support - $61.21 zero Fibonacci level RESISTANCE LEVELS: - $64.00 descending trend line - $64.80-$65.00 zone - $65.50 next target FIBONACCI EXTENSIONS:...

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Monday, February 9, 2026 — Strategic Positioning: Week 7. WEEK 7 OPENS. The decoupling thesis enters its seventh week. Every call confirmed. Now we execute. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI pulled back from $65. The $63-64 resistance zone held again. EIA forecasts $52 average for 2026 — we're trading at a 25% premium. Mean reversion coming. OPEC+ trapped. Production freeze th...

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Friday, February 6, 2026 — Bonus Episode: 2026 Year-to-Date Recap. SIX WEEKS IN. 25 EPISODES. ONE THESIS CONFIRMED. THE DECOUPLING THESIS: From day one of 2026, we called it. Bearish crude, bullish natural gas. Short crude rallies, accumulate gas on dips. Six weeks later, the data confirms everything. CRUDE OIL JOURNEY: - Week 1: WTI opened $57.41. Brent $60.85. Di...

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Friday, February 6, 2026 — Weekly Recap: Week 6. THE WEEK THAT WAS: Crude got crushed. Gas held ground. The decoupling thesis played out perfectly. CRUDE OIL RECAP: WTI crashed 5% Monday from $66.51 to $62.25. US-Iran diplomatic shift and OPEC+ holding the line triggered the selloff. Bounced to $63.59 mid-week, then consolidated at $63.20 by Thursday. The bounce st...

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Thursday, February 5, 2026 — Market Update. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI pulled back to $63.20, consolidating after Monday's 5% crash. The bounce stalled exactly where we said it would. $63-64 resistance holding. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report dropped. Crude inventories down 3.5 million barrels to 420.3 million. 4% below the 5-year average. Sounds bullish? Wrong. Here...

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, February 4, 2026 — Strategic Positioning. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI bounced to $63.59 yesterday, up 0.6% after Monday's 5% crash. Bouncing off the zero Fibonacci level around $61.21. OPEC+ confirmed production pause through March. Saudi Arabia at 10.1M bpd, Russia at 9.57M bpd. 1.65M bpd voluntary cuts remain. They're trapped. US ramping Iran sanctions. Eigh...

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday, February 3, 2026 — Technicals. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI pulled back hard. Down over 5% Monday, trading near $62.25 after hitting $66.51 swing high. US-Iran diplomatic shift and OPEC+ holding quotas triggered the move. Key levels. Support: $62.43 (38.2% Fib), $61.17 (50% Fib), $59.92 (61.8% Fib). The $60 psychological level is critical. Below that, $57 com...

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Monday, February 2, 2026 — Strategic Positioning. Week 6 of 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI trading at $65.21 as of Feb 1. EIA forecasts $51.42 average for 2026. Brent $56. OPEC says 1.4M bpd demand growth. IEA and EIA see surpluses. OPEC sees tighter markets. Someone's wrong. Our position: believe the glut. Rallies to $65+ are exits, not entries. NATURAL GAS: EIA projects $3...

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Friday, January 30, 2026 — Geographic Feature: Texas. This is a pre-recorded episode. We'll be back with daily updates Monday, February 9th. TEXAS: America's energy engine. Permian Basin produced 6.6M bpd in 2025, flat forecast for 2026. Natural gas at 20.9 Bcf/d, up 12% YoY. The challenge: EIA forecasts WTI at $52/bbl vs Permian breakeven of $61-62/bbl. Growth sta...

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Thursday, January 29, 2026 — Geographic Feature: Caribbean. This is a pre-recorded episode. We'll be back with daily updates Monday, February 9th. THE CARIBBEAN: Oil boom meets renewable transition. Guyana excluded from regional forecasts due to dramatic production growth. Trinidad remains the LNG anchor. CARICOM targets 47% renewable penetration by 2027. 100% rene...

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, January 28, 2026 — Geographic Feature: Saudi Arabia. This is a pre-recorded episode. We'll be back with daily updates Monday, February 9th. SAUDI ARABIA: The world's swing producer. Aramco maintains 12M bpd maximum sustainable capacity. Abandoned 13M bpd expansion plans. Extraction costs: $2/bbl for oil. Spare capacity estimated at 2M+ bpd. OPEC+ cuts ke...

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday, January 27, 2026 — Geographic Feature: Germany. This is a pre-recorded episode. We'll be back with daily updates Monday, February 9th. GERMANY: Europe's largest economy navigating a complex energy transition. Renewables now supply 52% of electricity. Target: 650 GW by 2040. Industrial electricity price cap at 5 euro cents/kWh from 2026. Nuclear gone April...

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Monday, January 26, 2026 — Geographic Feature: Namibia. This is a pre-recorded episode. We'll be back with daily updates Monday, February 9th. NAMIBIA: Africa's next oil frontier. The Orange Basin is delivering world-class discoveries. TotalEnergies Venus estimated at 5.1 billion barrels in place. Shell's Jonker at 2.5 billion barrels. Total basin: 11 billion barre...

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Friday, January 23, 2026 — Weekly Recap. Week four of 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI opened Monday at $59.39, bounced to $60.50 mid-week, then collapsed to $59.33 Friday (-1.96%). Brent in low $63s. IEA: 3.8M bpd surplus 2026. EIA: +3.6M bbl BUILD vs draw expected. Ukraine-Russia peace talks pricing in sanctions relief. Kazakhstan exports easing. Crude is trapped. NATURAL GA...

Thursday, January 22, 2026. WTI bounces to $60.67 after IEA glut report. Natural gas explodes to $5.06 on cold snap. Why you shouldn't chase either move.

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, January 21, 2026 — Market Update. Week four of 2026. **CRUDE OIL:** WTI fell to $59.50 per barrel, down 1.3%. Brent tracking lower near $63. Geopolitical tensions easing but tariff fears clouding demand outlook. Kazakhstan halted output at two large oilfields temporarily but effect subsided. US crude inventory build expected weighing on prices. OPEC fore...

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday, January 20, 2026 — Technicals. Week four of 2026. **CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS:** WTI trading near $59.50. Key support levels: $59.25, $59.10, then $58.37 at 38.2% Fibonacci and 100 SMA. Deeper support at $57.88 (50% retracement), $57.40 at channel bottom and 200 SMA. Ultimate floor at $55, the 2025 lows. Resistance levels: $60.05, $61.08, then key resistance at...

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Monday, January 19, 2026 — Strategic Positioning. Week four of 2026. **CRUDE OIL:** WTI at $59.44, up 0.4%. Brent hovering near $63. Post-geopolitical spike stabilization. Last week's Iran fears faded. Venezuela back online. Surplus thesis intact. OPEC+ stuck between defending price floors and volume strategy. Most forecasts agree on surplus conditions 2026. IEA wa...

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Friday, January 16, 2026 — Weekly Recap. Week of Jan 12-16. **CRUDE OIL:** Wild week. WTI opened at $58.79, spiked to $62 mid-week on Iran tensions, now back to $59.22. Brent similar pattern—peaked near $66.50, back to $63.63. Geopolitical premium evaporated. Trump comments eased Iran strike fears. Venezuela resumed exports. EIA showed rising US crude and gasoline...

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Thursday, January 15, 2026 — Strategic Positioning. **CRUDE OIL:** WTI pulled back to $61, down 2% after five-day rally. Brent at $65, also down 2%. Geopolitical premium fading—fears of imminent US strike on Iran easing. But the rally added 9% over four sessions. OPEC holds demand growth forecast at 1.38 million bpd for 2026, reaching 106.52 million bpd. IEA still...

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, January 14, 2026 — Market Update. **CRUDE OIL:** WTI surged to $61.09, up 2.68%. Brent at $65.42, up 2.43%. Biggest daily pop in weeks. Geopolitical risk back in focus—US-Iran tensions and Venezuelan production slipping to 950,000 bpd from 1.1 million. OPEC+ Q1 freeze holds. Eight core members keeping output steady. IEA still projects 3.8 million bpd sur...

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday, January 13, 2026 — Technicals. **CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS:** WTI trading near $58.80. Key support at $55.40, strong floor at $58.50. Resistance at 50-day EMA and downtrend line. Break above targets $60, then $62. RSI holding 35-45 range—no panic, room for recovery. MACD negative but histogram flattening—bearish momentum fading. Brent mirrors WTI. Support $58.5...

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Monday, January 12, 2026 — Strategic Positioning. Week three of 2026. **CRUDE OIL:** WTI at $58.79, down 0.56%. Brent at $63.28, down 0.10%. Rebound holds $58 support. OPEC+ cuts extended through 2026—underproducing 1.3 million bpd. IEA projects 3.85 million bpd surplus. EIA Petroleum Status delayed to Jan 22 for MLK Day. **NATURAL GAS:** Henry Hub $3.11, recoverin...

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Friday, January 9, 2026 — Weekly Recap. Week of Jan 5-9: Thesis sharpened. **CRUDE OIL:** WTI closed $58.04 (+0.49% Jan 9), Brent $62.37 (+0.62%). Rebound from $57 lows. EIA crude -3.8M bbl wk end Jan 2 (beat +0.45M exp). OPEC+ Q1 freeze firm, underproduce 1.3M bpd. IEA 3.8M surplus '26 intact. Non-OPEC relentless. **NAT GAS:** $3.42 (-3%). Mild Jan thru 23 caps de...

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Thursday, January 8, 2026 — Strategic Positioning. **CRUDE OIL:** WTI at $57.41, flat on the day. Brent at $60.85. EIA weekly showed crude inventories up 1.2 million barrels (vs -1.5M expected). Gasoline down 2.1 million. Refinery utilization 93.2%. The build confirms oversupply—IEA's 3.8 million bpd surplus thesis intact. OPEC+ Q1 freeze holding firm. Non-OPEC mac...