Energy Markets Daily

Friday, May 29, 2026. AZERBAIJAN. THE CASPIAN ENERGY POWERHOUSE. Azerbaijan sits on western shore of Caspian Sea, one of world's most energy-rich regions. Oil and natural gas reserves massive, geopolitically contested. OIL PRODUCTION: Produces ~800,000 barrels per day, mostly from offshore Caspian fields. Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) field is crown jewel, capacity 600,000 barrels per day. Baku-Tbil...

Thursday, May 28, 2026. POLAND. ENERGY CROSSROADS OF EUROPE. Poland sits at intersection of Russian energy and Western European demand. Critical chokepoint for natural gas and oil flowing west. NATURAL GAS INFRASTRUCTURE: Yamal-Europe pipeline receives Russian natural gas, capacity 33 billion cubic meters per year, but geopolitical tensions have disrupted flows multiple times. Baltic Pipe (complet...

Wednesday, May 27, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI closed $92.51, down from open $93.88-$93.90. Day range $89.41-$93.90. Pulled back from earlier May highs near $107-$108 on profit-taking, inventory data, holiday caution. Futures curve steep backwardation: distant 2026 contracts $30-40 below near-term, signaling expected short-term tightness followed by relief as production recovers. EIA outlook: Global inve...

Monday, May 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI opened week at $92.04, down 4.72% from Friday's close of $96.60. Drop driven by negotiations advancing toward potential short-term agreement on Strait of Hormuz reopening. Week recap: May 22 open $98, close $96.60; May 21 open $98.95, close $96.35; May 20 open $104.12, close $98.26; May 24 close $92.13. Trend clear: crude pricing in de-escalation. Trump stated...

Friday, May 22, 2026. CRUDE OIL RECAP: Mon $108.66 (+3%), Tue $107.77 (-0.82%), Wed $98.26 (-8.82% sharp drop on peace deal progress), Thu $97.73 (-0.54%), Fri $98.30 (+0.58%). Weekly range $96-$109, volatile mid-week plunge followed by partial recovery. Crude tumbled May 20 on reports of progress toward US-Iran peace deal that could reopen Strait of Hormuz; prices stabilized as negotiations remai...

Thursday, May 21, 2026. CRUDE OIL: EIA report (May 20, week ending May 15) bullish. U.S. commercial crude inventories fell 7.86M barrels to 445M barrels (2% below five-year average). Refinery crude inputs averaged 16.3M b/d (down 80K b/d from prior week), utilization 91.6% of operable capacity. Motor gasoline inventories down 1.5M barrels (5% below five-year average). Distillate fuel inventories u...

Wednesday, May 20, 2026. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report drops 10:30 AM ET, covering week ended May 15. Previous report (May 13): U.S. commercial crude inventories fell 4.306M barrels to 452.9M barrels for week ended May 8, exceeding analyst forecasts of ~2.0-2.1M barrel draw (bullish signal, tighter supplies). EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook projects large global oil inventory draws averaging 8....

Tuesday, May 19, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI $102.35-$102.66, bullish momentum intact. RSI 51.27 (neutral, neither overbought nor oversold, room to run). MACD -0.08 (sell signal, mild bearish momentum but broader trend up). STOCHRSI 69 (Buy), Williams %R -35.78 (Buy), Ultimate Oscillator 59.29 (Buy). Overall: Strong Buy. Moving Averages: Most short-term (5/10/20-day) in Buy territory, 50-day m...

Monday, May 18, 2026. WTI $100.65-$102, bullish bias intact, uptrend continues. Price above 20/50-day MAs, Strong Buy on daily/weekly, RSI 53-54 (neutral-positive, not overbought). Support $97-$98, $95, $93. Resistance $103-$105, $107-$108, $110-$114. Ascending triangle pattern suggests upside continuation if $100-$102 holds. Geopolitical: Negotiations active but deadlocked, Iran rejected latest U...

Friday, May 15, 2026. WEEK 20 RECAP: WTI $97.01 → $100.37 peak → $101.56-$101.68 close. Strong Buy across MAs. Henry Hub $2.847-$2.96, Strong Buy bias. EIA: Crude -2.3M, gasoline -2.5M, distillate -1.3M (tight). Gas storage +63 Bcf (surplus building). Demand strong, refinery utilization 90.1%, LNG exports running. Geopolitical: Negotiations stalled, Iran rejected US proposal, Trump considering rev...

Thursday, May 14, 2026. EIA Natural Gas Storage Report released 10:30 AM ET (week ending May 8). Henry Hub $2.74 (up from $2.66). Consensus forecast +86 Bcf injection, projected inventory ~2,291 Bcf. Latest (week ending May 1): 2,205 Bcf (+63 Bcf), +75 Bcf YoY, +139 Bcf vs. 5-yr avg. Storage in surplus, injection season ongoing, ample inventories pressuring prices. Demand strong, refinery utilizat...

Wednesday, May 13, 2026. EIA Petroleum Report released 10:30 AM ET (week ending May 8). WTI $101-$110 range. Last week $109.76, prior $105.38. Crude inventories (week ending May 1): -2.3M to 457.2M (1% above 5-yr avg). Refinery inputs 16.0 Mbpd, utilization 90.1%. Gasoline -2.5M (below avg), distillate -1.3M (11% below avg). Tight data, strong demand. Henry Hub $2.917, storage 2,205 Bcf (+63 Bcf),...

Tuesday, May 12, 2026. WTI $97.01-$98.25, recent high $100.37. Mixed signals: Investing.com Strong Sell vs. CSFX bullish D1 (price above EMA20/50/200, RSI 54.29). RSI(14) 45.70 (neutral), STOCH 34.42 (sell), MACD 0.42 (buy), Williams %R -90 (oversold). Resistance $98.97/$99.87/$101.04, support $96.90/$95.73/$94.83. CSFX trade: buy $97-99, SL $93.50, TP1 $104, TP2 $108-110. ATR 1.01 (high volatilit...

Monday, May 11, 2026. BREAKING: Project Freedom paused after 24 hours. Iran claims disabled 4 US vessels (US denies). Trump pitching "Project Freedom Plus" — full expansion to reopen strait if no deal soon. Ball in Tehran's court. WTI $98.38 (EIA May 7), range $95-$101, June futures $95.42 (+0.64%). Henry Hub spot $2.67, Markets Insider $2.83, June futures $2.750 (-0.69%). EIA: commercial crude -2...

Friday, May 8, 2026. Kazakhstan is Central Asia's energy powerhouse. 9th largest oil producer globally. April 2026: 1.93M bbl/d, up month-on-month. Oil/gas condensate output +16% MoM. 2026 target: 100.5M tons, but CPC pipeline issues may cause shortfall. Forecasts: 1.7-1.97M bbl/d. Q1 2026 natural gas: 13.6 Bcm, down 15.1% YoY. 2026 forecast: 62.7 Bcm. KazMunayGas 2025: 26.211M tons (+10% YoY), 20...

Thursday, May 7, 2026. Sudan is a cautionary tale. Pre-war (April 2023): 70,000 bbl/d. Now: 30,000 bbl/d. 57% collapse. Heglig field (largest) lost 20,000-25,000 bbl/d due to shutdowns and damage. Energy Minister: 50% production loss since war start. Oil infrastructure is frontline asset. Rival factions broker temporary truces to maintain minimal flows. Refineries shut down. Fuel shortages widespr...

Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Ontario is Canada's most populous province but a rounding error in oil and gas. Crude: 498 bbl/d (2023), <0.1% of Canada's total, down from 1.3M bbl/d in 2013. Remaining reserves: 10M barrels. Natural gas: 6.2 MMcf/d (2023), <0.1% of Canada's total, down from 12.3 in 2013. Remaining: 650 Bcf. Ontario produces <1% of refinery crude needs, relies entirely on US impor...

Tuesday, May 5, 2026. WTI June futures $101.94, intraday $102.17 (+0.23%), continuous contract $104.34. Prediction markets: 61¢ for $102+. Resistance $102-103, support $100/$98/$95. Project Freedom launched overnight — US military guiding ships, Iran sank six boats after attack attempt. Clashes reported. Inflection point: if Hormuz opens, crude $70-75; if escalation, $120-150. Henry Hub spot $2.86...

Monday, May 4, 2026. BREAKING: Trump announces "Project Freedom" — US begins escorting neutral ships from Strait of Hormuz starting Monday. Iran protests, calls it ceasefire violation. Trump signals "very positive discussions" with Iran, potential deal coming. WTI $101.89 (-0.05%), June futures $101.81, July $96.64. Henry Hub June $2.825 (+1.62%), July $3.119 (+1.43%). EIA: crude -6.2M, gasoline -...

Friday, April 30, 2026. Geographic Spotlight: China. World's largest energy consumer: 14M bpd oil, 600 Bcm/yr gas. Imports 10M bpd, 45% from Middle East including Iran. Hormuz blockade threatens energy security. World's largest solar/EV producer. Energy transition gradual. Geopolitical leverage: could pressure US on blockade or accelerate transition. Watch imports, renewable policy, China-US relat...

Thursday, April 30, 2026. Geographic Spotlight: Norway. World's 2nd-largest crude exporter (1.7M bpd), 3rd-largest gas exporter (120 Bcm/yr). Supplies 25% of Europe's natural gas. NATO ally, EEA member. 98% hydropower. Energy transition challenge: economy dependent on oil/gas revenues. Geopolitical leverage in Hormuz blockade scenario. Watch production data, policy shifts, new field development.

Wednesday, April 29, 2026. WTI closes $107.11 (+7.19% or +$7.18), open $99.41, high $107.65. Trump rejects Iran deal, prepares extended blockade. Henry Hub $2.64 (-1.92%), down 8.58% monthly. EIA: commercial crude -6.2M to 459.5M, distillate -11% below avg, refinery util 89.6%. Downside $70-75 if deal, upside $120-150 if blockade holds. Trade the data.

Tuesday, April 28, 2026. WTI $97.38 (+1.05%), range $96.26-$97.55. Inverted head and shoulders intact, buyers control. Trump rejects Iran proposal, maintains blockade. Downside risk $70-75 if deal accepted, upside $120-150 if talks collapse. Henry Hub $2.717 (-0.51%), Strong Buy technicals, 7 Buy signals, overbought RSI/CCI. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Monday, April 27, 2026. BREAKING: Iran offers to reopen Strait of Hormuz + extend ceasefire indefinitely if US lifts blockade. Trump convening Situation Room. WTI $95-$96, Brent $105+. Henry Hub $2.57-$2.81. Downside risk $70-75 if deal accepted, upside $120-150 if talks collapse. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Friday, April 24, 2026. WTI opens $92, surges to $97 (+$7.74 week). Inverted head and shoulders bullish setup. Strait of Hormuz near-zero traffic. Iran's "Tehran Tollbooth" demands $2M per vessel. Henry Hub $2.58 (-1.43%), down 11.52% monthly. Forward curve steep. Trade the data, not the headlines.