EconoFact Chats

The US ran a budget deficit of $1.9 trillion in 2026 -- nearly 6% of GDP. Ongoing deficits have led to publicly-held federal debt rising to almost 100% of GDP, with Congressional Budget Office projections showing it rising to 120% by 2036.    A necessary part of closing the budget deficit is raising revenues. What are the prospects for collecting more in taxes from corporations, imports, bequests...

Recent policy changes have affected some of the more vulnerable people in the United States, including those who rely on Medicaid for their health insurance, people who are retired or disabled and get by month-to-month with their Social Security benefits, and workers whose income includes tips or overtime pay. What are the effects of Medicaid and Social Security on people’s economic security and w...

In 1958, Eastman Kodak advertised openings for chemical engineers, accountants, and lawyers, but only for men, while women were asked to apply for jobs as secretaries or stenographers. The 1964 Civil Rights Act outlawed such ads. Yet, firms that expressed a stronger preference for hiring men before the law still had significantly higher shares of male workers in 1995. Lisa Kahn joins EconoFact Cha...

Do online prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket provide a service beyond the entertainment of gambling? Prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the same agency that oversees futures contracts. Is this agency well-positioned to serve this role and guard against insider trading and market manipulation? And what should policy be towards online prediction...

In July, the US Treasury joined Japanese authorities in a joint intervention to prop up the yen -- the first US action in support of the yen since 1998. Maurice Obstfeld joins EconoFact Chats to discuss why the intervention reflects the pursuit of conflicting goals -- strengthening the yen, even as US tariffs weaken it, claiming a strong-dollar policy while pursuing currency interventions that wea...

Since EconoFact Chats last hosted a panel of economic journalists in June, oil supply disruptions due to the war in Iran have kept gasoline prices high. Inflation reached 3.4% in August. In response, the Fed raised its policy interest rate for the first time in over three years. There have also been renewed trade tensions, especially with Canada, while fears about the economic impact of artificial...

Artificial Intelligence has the potential to bring major economic changes, including raising productivity, widening inequality, and causing widespread job displacement. There are associated consequences for federal debt which is now historically high relative to national income. Could policy responses such as support for displaced workers, raising taxes on AI profits, or even government ownership...

Michael Klein switches from asking questions for EconoFact Chats to answering those posed by Gordon Lamphere’s in this rebroadcast of his Real Finds podcast. Michael discusses issues related to trade and the exchange rate, as well as the Federal Reserve, affordability, housing and real estate, and the founding of EconoFact.

In the face of tariffs, spiking oil prices, and heightened uncertainty, the US economy has shown surprising resilience. Part of the reason for this is continued consumption spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of national spending. But in this K-shaped economy, consumption spending has differed across the income distribution – the top 20% has had consumption growth of 4% while consumption...

Artificial Intelligence is widely seen as a transformative technology, and its effects are already being seen in stock prices, investment expenditures, and the need for electricity but, strikingly, not very much in labor markets - at least not yet. Jed Kolko joins EconoFact Chats to discuss why we haven't seen extensive labor market changes from AI, the prospects for worker displacement and the cr...

Household wealth in the United States rose from about 270% of GDP in 1997 to roughly 465% by 2021. Some 96% of that increase accrued to households where the respondents were 55 or older. And within that group, nearly three quarters of the wealth increase went to the wealthiest 10% of households. As this wealth passes to heirs, much of it will likely never be taxed. John Sabelhaus joins EconoFact C...

In 1860, the United States had no national currency, no national bank, and no income tax. Lincoln had a vision of advancing the economic fortunes of the country and fostering greater economic equality through, for example, incentivizing railroads and creating land-grant universities. He and his Treasury Secretary Salmon Chase also faced the challenge of financing the hugely expensive Civil War.  T...

When does a fiscal challenge become a fiscal problem? And at what point can that problem turn into a full blown crisis? As the federal debt held by the public reaches 100% of GDP, a level the US has seen only once before, at the end of World War II, these questions take on greater importance. Drawing on a new EconoFact Explainer (https://econofact.org/explainer/federal-debt-and-the-risk-of-a-fisca...

Oil prices have eased since the U.S.–Iran ceasefire, but remain above pre-war levels. At 4.2%, inflation is at its highest level since 2023. The federal debt has now grown larger than national income, while Social Security's trustees warn of insolvency within seven years. At the same time, the S&P has risen 17% since March. Binyamin Appelbaum of The New York Times, Larry Edelman of The Boston Glob...

While the best trade war strategy is to not have a trade war, this seems to no longer be an option. In their new book 'How to Win a Trade War' the goal of Soumaya Keynes and Chad Bown is to “… arm you with the knowledge to fight [because] these battles are going to last for a very long time.” Soumaya and Chad join EconoFact Chats to discuss the effects of the rise of China in the world trading sys...

Close to one in five Americans are over 65, double the ratio two decades ago. This is a consequence of both people living longer, and of declining fertility rates. Melissa Kearney joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the fall in fertility rates and to explain the challenges from these demographic shifts, including financial strains on Social Security and Medicare, shrinking local tax bases, and reduce...

This week, EconoFact Chats features an abridged version of an Ask Me Anything Webinar with Binyamin Appelbaum. The discussion touched on a range of issues, including whether AI will prove labor-enhancing or labor-replacing, how a shrinking immigrant workforce will affect a labor market already facing a crunch, why oil markets are seemingly underpricing supply shocks, and whether the central bank c...

Billy Pizer discusses how energy security goes beyond the price of oil or liquified natural gas since these prices do not fully capture all the costs of using fossil fuels. One well-known externality, a cost beyond the price at the pump, is global warming and the corresponding climate-related disasters like the 2025 Palisades fire in California or the devastation in North Carolina from Hurricane H...

President Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in August 2025, claiming without evidence that the agency's data were "rigged." One consequence of the firing was an erosion of trust in data that businesses, investors, and policymakers depend on. A recent paper (https://www.nber.org/papers/w35135) quantifies the cost of this erosion of trust, estimating that Commissioner McEntarfer...

With the delinking of the dollar from gold in 1971 -- the so called 'Nixon shock' -- there were widespread doubts about how long the dollar could retain its international dominance. More than half a century later, the dollar remains the world's dominant currency. But for how long will it continue to reign supreme? Barry Eichengreen draws on his new book, 'Money Beyond Borders: From Croesus to Cryp...

As the use of AI in finance becomes more pervasive -- in trading algorithms and credit underwriting, to insurance claims processing -- what benefits and risks do these systems pose? Gary Gensler joins EconoFact Chats to discuss how AI is lowering costs and broadening access to financial services, but also creating new challenges around explainability, bias, and accuracy. Gary is Professor of the P...

Some of the key economic challenges facing the U.S. include its large federal debt and the possibility of a fiscal crisis, as well as the disruptions (and perhaps promises) of the widespread adoption of Artificial Intelligence. Greg Mankiw discussed these challenges in an EconoFact Ask Me Anything webinar held on October 15, 2025. This EconoFact Chats episode is an abridged recording of that webin...

This week, EconoFact Chats features an abridged version of an Ask Me Anything webinar with John Cassidy of The New Yorker focusing on his new book, 'Capitalism and Its Critics: A History from the Industrial Revolution to AI.' Cassidy discusses why capitalism has proved resilient, mutating in times of crisis rather than collapsing, what challenges AI could pose over the coming years, and how the sy...

In his new book, 'The Doom Loop: Why the World Economic Order Is Spiraling into Disorder,' Eswar Prasad writes that "economic, political, and geopolitical factors are fuelling a doom loop, breeding turmoil rather than stability, disarray rather than order." Prasad joins EconoFact Chats to discuss why forces once expected to foster shared prosperity -- globalization, multilateral institutions and c...

Risks from the use of Artificial Intelligence range from autonomous vehicle fender benders to truly cataclysmic events. Managing these risks becomes more urgent with the increased prevalence of AI across a widening set of uses. Josephine Wolff joins EconoFact Chats to discuss how approaches to these challenges must account for the complexity, variety, and opacity of AI systems. Josephine is a Prof...