EconoFact Chats

In 1860, the United States had no national currency, no national bank, and no income tax. Lincoln had a vision of advancing the economic fortunes of the country and fostering greater economic equality through, for example, incentivizing railroads and creating land-grant universities. He and his Treasury Secretary Salmon Chase also faced the challenge of financing the hugely expensive Civil War.  T...

When does a fiscal challenge become a fiscal problem? And at what point can that problem turn into a full blown crisis? As the federal debt held by the public reaches 100% of GDP, a level the US has seen only once before, at the end of World War II, these questions take on greater importance. Drawing on a new EconoFact Explainer (https://econofact.org/explainer/federal-debt-and-the-risk-of-a-fisca...

Oil prices have eased since the U.S.–Iran ceasefire, but remain above pre-war levels. At 4.2%, inflation is at its highest level since 2023. The federal debt has now grown larger than national income, while Social Security's trustees warn of insolvency within seven years. At the same time, the S&P has risen 17% since March. Binyamin Appelbaum of The New York Times, Larry Edelman of The Boston Glob...

While the best trade war strategy is to not have a trade war, this seems to no longer be an option. In their new book 'How to Win a Trade War' the goal of Soumaya Keynes and Chad Bown is to “… arm you with the knowledge to fight [because] these battles are going to last for a very long time.” Soumaya and Chad join EconoFact Chats to discuss the effects of the rise of China in the world trading sys...

Close to one in five Americans are over 65, double the ratio two decades ago. This is a consequence of both people living longer, and of declining fertility rates. Melissa Kearney joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the fall in fertility rates and to explain the challenges from these demographic shifts, including financial strains on Social Security and Medicare, shrinking local tax bases, and reduce...

This week, EconoFact Chats features an abridged version of an Ask Me Anything Webinar with Binyamin Appelbaum. The discussion touched on a range of issues, including whether AI will prove labor-enhancing or labor-replacing, how a shrinking immigrant workforce will affect a labor market already facing a crunch, why oil markets are seemingly underpricing supply shocks, and whether the central bank c...

Billy Pizer discusses how energy security goes beyond the price of oil or liquified natural gas since these prices do not fully capture all the costs of using fossil fuels. One well-known externality, a cost beyond the price at the pump, is global warming and the corresponding climate-related disasters like the 2025 Palisades fire in California or the devastation in North Carolina from Hurricane H...

President Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in August 2025, claiming without evidence that the agency's data were "rigged." One consequence of the firing was an erosion of trust in data that businesses, investors, and policymakers depend on. A recent paper (https://www.nber.org/papers/w35135) quantifies the cost of this erosion of trust, estimating that Commissioner McEntarfer...

With the delinking of the dollar from gold in 1971 -- the so called 'Nixon shock' -- there were widespread doubts about how long the dollar could retain its international dominance. More than half a century later, the dollar remains the world's dominant currency. But for how long will it continue to reign supreme? Barry Eichengreen draws on his new book, 'Money Beyond Borders: From Croesus to Cryp...

As the use of AI in finance becomes more pervasive -- in trading algorithms and credit underwriting, to insurance claims processing -- what benefits and risks do these systems pose? Gary Gensler joins EconoFact Chats to discuss how AI is lowering costs and broadening access to financial services, but also creating new challenges around explainability, bias, and accuracy. Gary is Professor of the P...

Some of the key economic challenges facing the U.S. include its large federal debt and the possibility of a fiscal crisis, as well as the disruptions (and perhaps promises) of the widespread adoption of Artificial Intelligence. Greg Mankiw discussed these challenges in an EconoFact Ask Me Anything webinar held on October 15, 2025. This EconoFact Chats episode is an abridged recording of that webin...

This week, EconoFact Chats features an abridged version of an Ask Me Anything webinar with John Cassidy of The New Yorker focusing on his new book, 'Capitalism and Its Critics: A History from the Industrial Revolution to AI.' Cassidy discusses why capitalism has proved resilient, mutating in times of crisis rather than collapsing, what challenges AI could pose over the coming years, and how the sy...

In his new book, 'The Doom Loop: Why the World Economic Order Is Spiraling into Disorder,' Eswar Prasad writes that "economic, political, and geopolitical factors are fuelling a doom loop, breeding turmoil rather than stability, disarray rather than order." Prasad joins EconoFact Chats to discuss why forces once expected to foster shared prosperity -- globalization, multilateral institutions and c...

Risks from the use of Artificial Intelligence range from autonomous vehicle fender benders to truly cataclysmic events. Managing these risks becomes more urgent with the increased prevalence of AI across a widening set of uses. Josephine Wolff joins EconoFact Chats to discuss how approaches to these challenges must account for the complexity, variety, and opacity of AI systems. Josephine is a Prof...

This week, EconoFact Chats features an abridged version of an Ask Me Anything webinar co-hosted with The Journalist's Resource on the economic consequences of the war in Iran. Panelists Binyamin Applebaum (New York Times), Nicholas Bloom (Stanford), Michael Klein (EconoFact) and David Victor (UC San Diego) discussed the energy market disruptions stemming from the war, how increased uncertainty has...

The COVID pandemic and the war with Iran highlight the vulnerabilities associated with international supply chains. But sourcing from low-cost producers and from countries that have an advantage in providing key inputs also contributes to greater productivity and a wider range of available goods. Chris Miller joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the economic security challenges associated with a depen...

The price of oil has risen by over 40% since the start of the war with Iran, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz -- which sees roughly 20 million barrels of oil transit daily -- has come to a virtual halt. Past oil price spikes have driven inflation higher, and weakened economies worldwide. What do the current disruptions portend for oil markets, and global economic growth? How might these d...

Much has changed since the EconoFact Chats panel of journalists last met in late 2025; the bombing of Iran and its effects on oil prices and shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz, the Supreme Court’s decision on the illegality of tariffs enacted by IEEPA and the possibility that the government may have to repay tariff revenues, and the nomination of a new Chair for the Federal Reserve, and t...

The United States has about 2 million people behind bars at any given time -- an incarceration rate more than twice that of any other economically advanced country. There are significant costs to this -- in terms of the resources needed to run prisons and jails, the losses associated with having so many people not participating in the economy, and the price paid by individuals themselves when they...

This week, EconoFact Chats features an abridged version of an Ask Me Anything Webinar held on January 16th, 2026, featuring Heather Long of the Navy Federal Credit Union (formerly at The Washington Post), and John Hilsenrath of Serpa Pinto Advisory (formerly at The Wall Street Journal). The webinar touched on a wide range of issues including the uneven economic recovery since COVID, America's tran...

Economic policy in the second Trump administration continues to undergo significant change. Many of these changes have been enacted through executive orders. What effect have these policies had on economic growth, scientific research, and on American institutions thus far? How might they impact U.S. leadership over the long-term? Simon Johnson joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions, draw...

Homeownership has been part of the traditional American dream. But increases in home prices, borrowing costs, and home insurance are making it harder for many Americans to buy a home. The cost of renting is also rising. These increases have recently been more widespread across the country. What's driving the higher cost of housing? What policies could help alleviate the challenge of housing unaffo...

In a recent article, The Economist Magazine noted that “talk about affordability mixes phantom concerns with real ones.” In this episode of EconoFact Chats, Jason Furman argues that “affordability,” which is not well defined, is not necessarily worse now than a year or two ago, or even decades ago. But he notes that there are real concerns as well -- especially with the costs of housing, childcare...

It's been nearly ten years since Britain voted to leave the European Union. The run-up to the referendum was marked by competing claims regarding the consequences of Brexit, with Leave supporters claiming Brexit would restore British sovereignty over economic and social policies, while Remain advocates warned of self-inflicted economic harm. What have the actual consequences of Brexit been? And wh...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has been the subject of very public attacks by President Trump, and a criminal investigation by the Department of Justice. These are seen as efforts to influence the Fed to lower interest rates for short-run political advantage. But there has been widespread pushback to these efforts. Kenneth Kuttner joins EconoFact Chats to discuss how and why central banks are...