Ecommerce Playbook: Numbers, Struggles & Growth

Is AppLovin actually incremental — or just another platform taking credit for demand that already exists? In this episode, we break down 8 real AppLovin incrementality tests run across live client accounts and share what the data actually shows. No speculation. No theory. Just results. We cover why AppLovin’s measurement is more conservative than most platforms, how its attribution model impacts r...

Most brands are chasing “perfect attribution.” That’s the wrong goal. In this episode of the Podcast, Tony sits down with Steve to break down what marketing measurement is actually for — and why accuracy with a capital-T isn’t just impossible, it’s counterproductive. Using the “Royal Cubit” metaphor, they explain why the purpose of measurement isn’t to find universal truth, but to create a shared...

The last five years of DTC forced brands through extreme conditions—easy money, explosive growth, brutal pullbacks, rising CAC, tariffs, and shrinking consumer demand. In this presentation from the Commerce Roundtable, Taylor Holiday breaks down why those pressures weren’t the end of DTC—but the catalyst for its next evolution. Taylor introduces the “Flow Era”: a new phase where winning brands sto...

In this episode of the Podcast, we break down the three things brands must get right to win in 2026—based on real performance data, post-BFCM learnings, and what top-performing brands are already doing differently. Richard is joined by Luke to unpack the foundational shifts shaping the next era of ecommerce growth. As rising costs, tighter margins, and increased competition redefine the landscape,...

2026 won’t be an evolution of commerce—it will be a reset. In this episode, Taylor and Richard unpack 26 predictions that will reshape commerce in 2026, exploring how AI becomes the foundational layer for shopping, work, creative, media buying, and decision-making itself. This isn’t about tools or tactics. It’s about what happens when machines stop assisting humans—and start replacing human judgme...

Meta’s Andromeda algorithm didn’t just tweak performance it rewired how ads are delivered, scaled, and rewarded. In this episode of the Podcast, we break down insights from 53,000 ads, 147 brands, and $14.5M in BFCM spend to show how Meta now evaluates creative, bidding strategies, and content formats in a post-auction, AI-driven system. You’ll learn: Why creative volume exploded — and why it’s no...

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 The holiday shipping cutoff doesn’t end the year. It flips the calendar into Q5 — the six-week window where intent spikes, CPMs collapse, and the best customer cohorts of the year are born. In this episode of the Podcast, we break down why Q5 is the Super Bowl for health & wellness brands and how operators should think about acquisition, offers, and retention heading into January. Joining the...

In this episode of the Podcast, Richard and Luke break down the uncomfortable truth most brands ignore: your marketing calendar not your spreadsheet—is the real driver of revenue. We walk through why forecasts consistently miss, how spending power actually shifts month to month, and the system top DTC brands use to tie marketing actions directly to revenue outcomes. You’ll learn how to: Build fore...

In this episode, Taylor and Joy break down the real 2026 playbook for 7-figure ecommerce brands, and why copying 9-figure operators is one of the biggest mistakes you can make. Coming off BFCM, they unpack what actually happened for small brands and what it signals heading into the new year. You’ll learn: How to create “four peaks a month” using trends, cultural moments, and audience overlaps Why...

How do high-performing ecommerce brands turn campaigns into predictable cash flow? In this episode, we break down the exact forecasting process we use at Common Thread Collective to consistently land within 0–10% of goal across dozens of brands. Growth Strategy Manager Brian Sakansky joins Richard to unpack how CTC builds forecasts, operationalizes them, and uses daily expectations to make real-ti...

In this episode of the Podcast, we break down the real story of BFCM 2025—from forecasting accuracy to media buying chaos, offer pivots, AppLovin’s breakout performance, and what this year’s results say about the broader consumer economy. Richard and Taylor walk through: The full BFCM data recap: +7% total revenue, +10% new customers, +13% contribution margin Why Saturday became the surprise winne...

Black Friday is three days away but there’s still time to tighten your strategy and avoid costly mistakes. In this episode of the podcast, the CTC team breaks down the 5 essential last-minute BFCM fixes every brand needs before the biggest weekend of the year. Whether you're behind on creative, unsure about spend pacing, or just want to sanity-check your plan…this is the checklist that will sa...

In our first CFO Summit Taylor breaks down the Board, Budget, Bonus forecasting framework—CTC’s core system for building a clear, defensible, and aligned financial plan for 2026.This replay walks you through how high-performing ecommerce brands create scenario models that serve their board, their finance team, and their operators… all without losing focus during the busy BFCM season. In this repla...

Meta’s new creative ranking systems are changing everything, and most brands have no idea how much it’s affecting their performance. In this episode, we break down exactly how Meta’s Black Box evaluates your ads, why your creatives are being grouped together, and why small variations (like hook swaps) no longer matter the way you think they do. Our Guest today is Reza Khadjavi, CEO at Motion, the...

How do you set the right ROAS target on Meta heading into Black Friday and Cyber Monday? Most brands either guess… or use last month’s numbers and hope they hold. But BFCM behaves nothing like a normal period and the attribution windows prove it. In this episode, Tony and Steve walk through the real data behind Meta’s 7-day vs. 28-day click attribution, why value shifts dramatically in the weeks l...

Most ecommerce brands build one forecast — and that’s why most forecasts are wrong. In this episode of the Podcast, Richard and Luke break down the 3-forecast model that every high-performing brand should use when planning for 2026: Board. Budget. Bonus. You’ll learn: Why every brand needs three forecasts, not one How to balance short-term execution (Black Friday) with long-term planning (2026) Ho...

Most brands are building their 2026 plan all wrong. In this episode, Taylor breaks down why you can’t walk into the new year with one financial forecast — and why the smartest brands plan three: Board, Budget, and Bonus. You’ll learn how to: Build scenario plans that align finance and marketing Forecast existing and new customer revenue with confidence Connect your marketing calendar directly to y...

Black Friday isn’t won by guessing, it’s won hour by hour. In this episode of the Podcast, Richard and Luke break down how top DTC brands use real-time ad spend optimization to hit — and even exceed — their Black Friday and Cyber Monday targets. You’ll learn how hourly tracking transforms decision making during the biggest shopping weekend of the year, plus: How to spot pacing issues before it’s t...

After months of mixed signals, new data from the DTC Index shows ecommerce revenue is up 10% year over year — but consumer confidence is heading in the opposite direction. In this episode, host Richard sits down with Steve, CTC’s Chief Data Scientist, to unpack what’s really happening in the numbers. They dig into the latest data from our DTC Index and Consumer Confidence Index, exploring: Why ret...

Want to stop guessing when to spend your Meta budget during Black Friday and Cyber Monday? This episode breaks down exactly how to plan your ad spend hour by hour so you can hit your revenue goals without wasting a single dollar. Taylor Holiday and Luke Austin walk through the real data behind BFCM revenue flow, showing when sales actually spike, when performance dips, and how top DTC brands use h...

This is a special Friday episode feature of CTC's DTC Hotline: Most brands talk about hitting their Q4 goals — but few have a system to identify and close revenue gaps before they happen. In this episode of The DTC Hotline , Tony, Luke, and Richard break down how to spot and fill revenue shortfalls during the holidays, using the same daily frameworks CTC applies across top DTC brands. They’ll...

In this special episode of the Random Show, Taylor Holiday and Andrew Faris unpack a wide-ranging conversation—from AI’s potential to predict creative performance before launch, to the messy truth about equity splits, competition, and why most brands misunderstand “growth.” They debate: Whether LLMs could replace creative testing entirely How to design equity partnerships that actually reflect val...

He left JP Morgan to build a sock brand  and it worked. In this episode of podcast, Taylor sits down with Daniel Shim, founder of Ondo, the DTC brand reinventing no-show socks. They dig into how a finance background helped build a profitable ecommerce business, what it takes to stand out in a crowded category, and why growth isn’t just about scale — it’s about discipline. You’ll Learn How a banker...

Most brands treat retention and acquisition as separate strategies and that’s the problem. In this episode, we reveal why retention actually begins at acquisition and how understanding your customer lifecycle from day zero can unlock massive LTV growth. Josh Tay joins Richard to unpack how our Global Accelerator program integrates growth and lifecycle strategy into one unified system. From front-l...