CropGPT - Coffee

 Global Coffee Market Summary Brazil experienced significant harvest delays as excessive rainfall in Minas Gerais disrupted coffee collection, tightening physical supplies and supporting higher prices. These short term constraints contrast with forecasts for a record 2026/27 crop of approximately 71.9 million bags. The market remains cautious as ICE certified Arabica inventories have fallen to mul...

Global Coffee Market Summary In Brazil, heavy rainfall across key southern growing regions disrupted the Arabica harvest and raised concerns about bean quality during the drying process. More than 50 millimeters of rain hindered field operations, limiting near-term export availability at a time of strong international demand. These supply constraints helped drive Arabica futures to a six week high...

Global coffee market summary Brazil remains the dominant force shaping global coffee markets, with production forecasts for the 2026/27 season reaching as high as 71.9 million bags according to the USDA, while private estimates suggest even larger harvests. Strong output, combined with a weaker Brazilian real, is encouraging exports and contributing to expectations of a global coffee surplus of ar...

Global Coffee Market Summary Brazil is entering a record production season for 2026/27, with the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projecting output at 71.9 million 60-kilogram bags, a 14.1% increase driven by favorable weather and the positive phase of the biennial cycle. Arabica output is up 25% to 47,500,000 bags, while robusta is marginally lower at 24,400,000 bags, a 2.4% decline. Total expor...

Global Coffee Market Summary Vietnam's Central Highlands saw domestic coffee prices ease by VND 800 per kilogram, with provincial prices ranging from VND 87,200 per kilogram in Lam Dong to VND 87,800 per kilogram in Dak Nong. The narrowing spread across provinces alongside the overall price decline points to softening farm-gate conditions and compressed margins for growers. Brazil is projecting a...

Global Coffee Market Summary Vietnam maintains its position as a dominant robusta supplier despite significant domestic price pressure. Central Highlands prices have declined 31% compared to 2025, ranging between 85,500 and 86,100 dong per kilogram, driven by falling global benchmarks and reduced farmer selling activity as some growers withhold supplies in response to lower rates. Despite domestic...

Global Coffee Market Summary Vietnam's coffee production is poised to significantly influence the global coffee market, with projections for the 2025-26 cycle anticipating a robust 30,800,000 bags, chiefly composed of Robusta beans. This estimate accounts for approximately 17.2% of global production, underscoring Vietnam's critical role in the coffee industry. The expected increase to 30,800,000 b...

The weekly report on the global Coffee market for week 20. Brought to you by CropGPT

Global Coffee Market Summary Vietnam has recorded a 15.8% year-on-year rise in coffee exports from January to April 2026, reaching 810,000 metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is forecast to grow 6%, marking a four-year peak, with full-year export projections around 24,600,000 bags. Domestic prices in the Central Highlands rose by VND 1,000 to VND 100,100 per kilogram, tracking upward movements on...

Global Coffee Market Weekly Summary  Brazil's coffee sector is working with the Ministry of Labor and Employment to strengthen legal and commercial security for exporters, in response to concerns among US importers over labor violations across producing regions. These concerns have been amplified by US Customs and Border Protection withhold release orders and ongoing Section 301 investigations. La...

Global Coffee Market Weekly Summary  Brazil is on course for a record coffee harvest in 2026/27, with Marex Group and Stonex projecting output of between 75,000,000 and 75,900,000 bags, representing approximately 15.5% year-on-year growth. CONAB, Brazil's national crop agency, offers a more conservative estimate of 66,200,000 bags but still characterizes it as a record season. The growth is driven...

Global Coffee Market Weekly Summary The global coffee market is contending with an emerging oversupply dynamic, as record production forecasts from Brazil and continued export strength from Vietnam push inventory levels higher against a backdrop of only gradually rising demand. Brazil's 2026/27 season production forecast has reached 75,900,000 bags, a 15.5% year-on-year increase, with Arabica outp...

This episode examines a global coffee market. Vietnam is a central focus, where domestic coffee prices in the Central Highlands have risen by 400 to 500 dong per kilogram, lifting farm gate prices to roughly 91,500 to 92,700 dong per kilogram. The increase reflects stronger buying interest and expectations of tighter nearby supply as inventories from the previous harvest continue to decline. Firm...

This episode highlights current developments and market forecasts in the global coffee sector. In Brazil, coffee production forecasts for 2025 show notable upward revisions. Conab increased its estimate by 2.4 percent to 56.54 million bags, while Stonex projects a much larger output of 70.7 million bags, driven by a 29 percent rise in Arabica production, now expected at 47.2 million bags. Despite...

This episode covers the latest developments in the global coffee market. Vietnam continues to dominate the robusta market, with the 2025 harvest projected at 1.76 million tons, a 10% year-over-year increase and the highest output in four years. Favorable weather conditions supported this growth, and with only 10% of the harvest completed, expectations are high for further supply increases. Coffee...

This week’s coffee market report. Brazil is forecast to significantly increase coffee production for the 2026–2027 season, reaching an estimated 70.7 million bags, a 29 percent rise from the previous year. This is largely driven by favorable weather and a projected Arabica yield of 47.2 million bags. However, Brazil’s national supply company has slightly revised its 2025 Arabica forecast downward...

This episode covers key shifts in the global coffee market. In Brazil, Arabica futures found support amid low inventory levels and a 40 percent U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee, which caused a 52 percent year-over-year decline in exports to the United States from August to October. This short-term scarcity is supporting speculative price movements. However, Stonex projects Brazil’s 2026–2027 crop w...

This episode offers a thorough overview of the global coffee market as of November 16, 2025. In Brazil, the world’s top coffee producer, adverse weather associated with La Niña has led CONAB to revise the 2025 Arabica crop downward by 4.9 percent to 35.2 million bags. Despite this setback, a strong rebound is forecast, with Stonex projecting total output to rise by 29 percent to 70.7 million bags...

This episode outlines key developments in the global coffee market as of November 9, 2025. Brazil’s Arabica coffee output faces mounting pressure due to adverse weather conditions. In Minas Gerais, the top Arabica-producing region, rainfall in October reached only 33.4 millimeters, about 75% of the historical average, following an even drier period earlier in the season. This shortfall threatens t...

This episode examines key developments in the global coffee market. In Brazil, Arabica production has declined by 11.2% to 35.2 million bags, while Robusta output surged 37.2% to 20.1 million bags due to improved rainfall. Despite these shifts, total coffee exports fell by 18.4%, although revenues increased by 11.1% driven by higher global prices. A 50% tariff imposed by the United States on speci...

This week's coffee market report. In Brazil, concerns persist over insufficient rainfall in key Arabica-producing regions such as Minas Gerais. Although rain is forecasted, current precipitation levels remain below seasonal norms, raising doubts about optimal flowering and bean development. Concurrently, ongoing trade negotiations with the United States seek to resolve tariff disputes that have ne...

This episode explores the shifting dynamics of the global coffee market. In Brazil, initial optimism driven by forecasts of heavy rainfall in Minas Gerais led to expectations of higher yields and a temporary drop in Arabica prices. However, a sudden shift occurred following the United States’ imposition of 50% tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports, which reduced shipments and tightened iced coffee i...

This week’s coffee market update & currency shifts. In Brazil, the depreciation of the real has made coffee exports more globally competitive, contributing to a decline in international coffee prices. Favorable rains in Minas Gerais have supported the flowering of Arabica trees, improving outlooks. However, ongoing harvest pressures and reduced export projections from Brazil, reported by Kanab...

This week’s episode explores key developments across the global coffee market. In Brazil, regenerative coffee farming practices are gaining momentum, led by companies like Ilsa Brazil. Techniques such as the use of cover crops and organic fertilizers are improving soil health and mitigating climate challenges. These methods have become particularly relevant amid fluctuating market conditions and s...

This episode explores recent market shifts in Brazil’s coffee sector and the broader impact of new U.S. trade tariffs, while also providing agronomic insights into improving coffee yields. In August, Brazilian coffee exports reached 3.1 million bags, reflecting a 17.5% year-over-year decline but a 14.3% increase from July. Despite reduced exports, internal conditions improved for producers. A favo...