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This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Thursday, March 23. Stocks sold off yesterday after Fed chair Jerome Powell once more dashed hopes of a Fed pivot. Powell was helped out by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who said blanket insurance of bank deposits is not on the table. Regional banks sold off on this. The SPDR...

Good morning contrarians! It is Wednesday, March 22. Fed Day. Stocks rallied yesterday on hopes the banking crisis is over and done with. Small caps were the biggest gainers, with the Russell 2000 adding almost 2% on the day. State of Play As of 0630, all is pretty quiet: * Stock futures are mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq roughly unchanged but Russell pointing to gains of 0.8%; * Bonds aren’t...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Tuesday, March 14. Yesterday was highly volatile a day after the shocking weekend rescue of Signature Bank of New York ($SBNY ) and Silicon Valley Bank ($SIVB ). Major stock indexes managed to finish roughly unchanged though the Russell 2000 which tracks small caps was an outlie...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Monday, March 13. What a weekend! Bank regulators and the US Treasury Department yesterday announced they were closing Signature Bank (SBNY ). This came about 48 hours after Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB ) was shut down. Equity and bondholders will be wiped out. All depositors will...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Friday, March 10. Stocks sold off yesterday when it became clear that Silicon Valley Bank parent SVB Financial Group ($SIVB ) is faced with what looks suspiciously like a classic bank run. SVB’s move to sell shares announced yesterday was the catalyst for the worst bout of selli...

Good morning contrarians! It is Wednesday, March 8. Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn’t give investors what they wanted yesterday in his testimony. Stocks and bonds sold off once this became clear. The S&P 500 dropped 1.5% on the day. The 10-year yield advanced back up to 3.99% (yields move inversely to prices). Powell returns to Capitol Hill today, this time to speak to the House. State of Play As of...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Thursday, March 2. Stocks dropped yesterday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 down 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. Bonds sold off more dramatically, with the 2-year yield setting a fresh multi-decade high (bond yields move inversely to prices). So much for that Elon/China bounce. State...

Good morning contrarians! It is Wednesday, March 1. Welcome to March. Stocks treaded water yesterday as expected. Dow Industrials declined by 0.7% but the Russell 2000 which tracks small caps managed to eke out a 0.3% gain. State of Play Some good news out of China overnight, as the country’s official manufacturing PMI expanded at the fastest pace in a decade. This is the official government figur...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Friday, Feb. 24. Stocks advanced a bit yesterday, with the Nasdaq gaining 0.7% and S&P 500 adding 0.5%. It was the first positive day after four days of losses for the S&P. State of Play As of 0630 we’re looking at risk appetite waning again: * Stock futures are down, led by the...

Good morning contrarians! It is Thursday, Feb. 23. Stocks treaded water yesterday, closing effectively unchanged. They were down a bit early in the session before FOMC meeting minutes gave investors enough hope to bid things up to the break-even point. State of Play As of 0635, it looks like a little risk appetite is returning: * Stock futures are pointing to gains led by tech, with the Nasdaq up...

Good morning contrarians! It is Friday, Feb. 17. Stocks dropped yesterday after producer prices printed ahead of expectations. Most of January’s figures were revised upward in the latest sign that inflation is persistent and may even intensify. The tech-heavy Nasdaq saw most of the selling, declining by 1.8% on the day whilst the S&P 500 dropped 1.4%. Bonds dropped as well. More on that in the bot...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Wednesday, Feb. 15. Stocks were mixed yesterday after the CPI report came in slightly ahead of estimates. There was some selling around mid-day and a rebound in the afternoon. The Nasdaq finished 0.6% higher. The S&P 500 was flat. Dow Industrials gave up 0.5%. The reaction in bo...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Monday, Feb. 13. It’s a big week with the Consumer Price Index supplying a fresh inflation reading tomorrow. Today is mostly quiet however. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is due to speak at an American Bankers Association conference at 0800 today. That’s about it. State of Play As...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Thursday, Feb. 9. Stocks dropped yesterday as several Fed speakers hinted at ‘further for longer’ higher interest rates, which was enough to spook investors. Tech saw the worst of it with the Nasdaq was down 1.7% with the S&P 500 giving up 1.1%. State of Play As of 0630 it looks...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Tuesday, Feb. 7. Stocks retreated a bit yesterday as investors continued to mull over Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. Small caps saw the worst of it, with the Russell 2000 dropping by 1.6%. The Nasdaq was down 1% with S&P 500 declining 0.6%. State of Play As of 0630, things a...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Monday, Feb. 6. Friday saw a major surprise from non-farm payrolls, with 517,000 new jobs in January compared to 187,000 anticipated. Stocks retreated on the news, led by tech as the Nasdaq gave back 1.6% on the day. The S&P 500 dropped 1%. State of Play There is little on the c...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Friday, Feb. 3. Stocks staged a major rally again, with tech seeing the biggest gains. The Nasdaq was up 3.3% on the day as the S&P 500 added 1.5%. State of Play Earnings misses last night from Google ($GOOG ) and Apple ($AAPL ) are weighing on investor sentiment. As of 0635, it...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Thursday, Feb. 2. The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and didn’t change the language in the policy statement, causing a brief dip in stock prices. That then promptly gave way to buying even as Jay Powell didn’t provide anything in the way of Pivot Hope-i...

Good morning contrarians! It is Wednesday, Feb. 1. The US Federal Reserve decides interest rates today. Happy Fed Day. Stocks advanced yesterday after selling off early. The Nasdaq gained 1.7% to lead major US indexes and all but recapture losses from Monday. State of Play As of 0625 all is pretty quiet: * Stock futures are down a bit, with the Nasdaq and S&P off about 0.3% each; * Commodities are...

Stocks ended flat again yesterday after dropping most of the day. It was a mixed bag of earnings. Tesla ($TSLA ) beat expectations and Chevron ($CVX ) advanced after announcing a share buyback, but then IBM ($IBM ) dropped even after beating earnings and announcing layoffs. State of Play It’s a very busy day with a big dump of economic data and earnings. As of 0630 we’re looking at a bit of risk-o...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Monday, Jan. 23. Stocks advanced on Friday with major gains especially for tech. The Nasdaq gained 2.7% to lead major US indexes. State of Play It’s a slow start to the week. Nothing really in terms of economic data releases and only a few earnings to speak of. As a result, futu...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Wednesday, Jan. 18. Stocks treaded water yesterday. It was a pretty slow, dull, and boring day, just as we had anticipated. That all changes today as we get a bunch of economic data releases and earnings. State of Play The Bank of Japan decided to keep its interest rate policy a...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Thursday, Jan. 12. Stocks rallied again yesterday, with the Nasdaq booking the most gains (+1.8%). The S&P 500 was also up over 1%. Again no catalyst for the move as there was very little in the way of new information for traders to work with. State of Play As of 0625 all is qui...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Monday, Jan. 9. Stocks rallied in a major way on Friday. Non-farm payrolls came in around expectations but ISM services and factory orders fell well short of expectations. The ensuing rally was broad, with stock indexes up across the board and bond yields dropping. State of Play...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Friday, Jan. 6. Happy Jobs Day. Stocks retreated again yesterday, with the Nasdaq giving up 1.5% and S&P 500 dropping 1%. ADP payrolls came in much better-than-anticipated , which may have had a role in spooking markets. We’ll find out at 0830 if the non-farm payrolls provide mo...