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This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Thursday, June 22. State of Play As of 0635 it looks like the risk-off for all but crypto theme is continuing: * Stock index futures are pointing to a loss at the open. The Na...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! Welcome to the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at the upcoming known events likely to move markets in the day ahead. Today is Thursday, June 15. The Fed yesterday stood pat as expected, leaving its key interest rate unchanged. It’s seen as a ‘hawkish pause’ though, because of impli...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Wednesday, June 14. Happy Fed Day. This is the Daily Contrarian, our morning look at the upcoming known events likely to move markets in the day ahead. To get caught up on what yesterday’s action you can view this quick (53 second) video hosted by our AI bot. State of Play As of...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Monday, June 12. State of Play It’s a big week anchored by the Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday, but there isn’t really anything on the calendar today. As of 0635 things are looking anything but quiet: * Stock index futures are pointing to gains led by small caps. The Rus...

Good morning contrarians! It is Friday, June 9. Happy Friday. State of Play The S&P 500 ($SPY ) officially entered a new bull market yesterday. As of 0630 this morning all looks quiet: * Stock index futures are unchanged with the exception of the Russell 2000 which tracks small caps, down 0.5%; * Commodities aren’t doing anything. WTI crude oil is flat, trading around $71.50/barrel; * Bonds are se...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Thursday, June 8. State of Play Yesterday was a pretty strange day on Wall Street. You had a big rally in small caps led by regional banks, with the Russell 200 gaining almost 2%. But then tech got sold, with the Nasdaq dropping 1.3%. As of 0635 this morning, all is once again p...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Monday, June 5. If you’re looking for a quick summary of what happened in Friday’s trading, our AI bot Connie (short for Contrarian) has the sub-60 second wrap-up for you. State of Play As of 0635 things are pretty quiet: * Stock index futures are pointing to a lower open, led b...

Good morning contrarians! It is Friday, June 2. Jobs day. Today’s briefing and podcast is free. Become a premium subscriber to get it every market day morning: State of Play As of 0635 we are looking at risk-on ahead of the crucial non-farm payrolls print at 0830: * Stock index futures are pointing to gains, with major US indexes all up about 0.5%; * Commodities are gaining ground, with WTI crude...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Thursday, May 25. State of Play Nvidia ($NVDA ) reported blow-out earnings after the close last night, due to surging demand for AI chips. As of 0630 it looks like the tech party is in full swing already: * Stock index futures are up, with tech stocks rallying on the back of the...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Monday, May 22. State of Play As of 0630 all is pretty quiet: * Stock index futures are effectively unchanged, with none moving more than 0.2% from the break-even point; * Commodities are down, with copper off 1% and natural gas down 1.6%. WTI crude oil is unchanged at $71.60/ba...

Good morning contrarians! It is Wednesday, May 17. State of Play Yesterday we had Home Depot (HD ) disappoint investors with their earnings. This morning Target (TGT ) just providing a little more upbeat news, beating estimates and more importantly reiterating its outlook. But the overall caution over the US consumer remains. As of 0645 the market is struggling for direction a little bit: * Stock...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Tuesday, May 16. State of Play As of 0635 we are looking at a little bit of risk off: * Stock index futures are pointing to a lower open, led by the Russell 2000 which tracks small caps. The Russell is down 0.4%; * Commodities are moving lower led by copper (-1.2%). Silver is do...

Good morning contrarians! It is Friday, May 12. State of Play As of 0625 there isn’t all that much going on: * Stock futures are pointing to small gains with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 up about 0.3% each; * Commodities are flat. WTI crude oil is unchanged at $70.80/barrel and copper isn’t moving at all; * Cryptocurrencies are down again, with Bitcoin off almost 4% to trade around $26,400; * Bonds are...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Wednesday, May 10. Inflation Day, with the Consumer Price Index at 0830 the main event that will likely move markets today and (possibly) beyond. State of Play As of 0620 all is pretty quiet: * Stock futures are flat with no major US index moving more than 0.2% from the break-ev...

Good morning contrarians! It is Thursday, May 4. Fed Day +1 but there was some other news to preoccupy us overnight… State of Play PacWest Bancorp ($PACW ), one of three main problem banks identified in this space, is exploring alternatives including a sale . This type of move does not inspire confidence the bank can avoid the fate of First Republic and others, and led to shares cratering in the a...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Monday, May 1. Welcome to the first trading day of May. It’s a huge week with one quarter of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings, the Federal Reserve meeting, and non-farm payrolls on Friday. State of Play Overnight we finally got some resolution to this First Republic Bank ($F...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Wednesday, April 26. State of Play Some positive earnings after yesterday’s close seem to have reversed sentiment after a rough day. Google/Alphabet ($GOOG ) and Microsoft ($MSFT ) beat expectations and surged in the after-market. Our AI host Connie has the sub-60 second wrap-up...

Good morning contrarians! It is Monday, April 24. State of Play As of 0620 all is pretty quiet: * Stock futures are down a tiny bit, with major US indexes off just 0.2% from the break-even point; * Commodities aren’t doing much either, with WTI crude oil unchanged at $77.50/barrel and copper up 0.3%; * Bonds are seeing a few bids after selling off on Friday due to the better-than-expected Purchasi...

Good morning contrarians! It is Thursday, April 20. Happy 4/20 day to those who celebrate. Want a short recap of yesterday’s trading session? We’ve got one of those with an AI-generated host we’ve named Connie (short for contrarian, natch). Or, skip right to The Bottom Line and Set-Up . State of Play One individual who surely celebrates 4/20 is Elon Musk, whose Tesla ($TSLA ) reported earnings yes...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Friday, April 14. Stocks rallied yesterday after softer-than-anticipated producer prices. Tech led the way as the Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ ) gained 2%. Bonds didn’t go along for the ride weirdly enough as 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year yields finished unchanged. State of Play Today is a b...

Good morning contrarians! It is Thursday, April 6. Yesterday saw a softer-than-anticipated reading of ADP payrolls. Bonds rallied as risk assets, primarily tech stocks, sold off. The Nasdaq ($QQQ ) dropped 1%. Not sure how much it has to go to drop back out of bull market territory? Today’s briefing is free. Skip to the bottom line and set-up at the bottom of this page, and vote in the poll. State...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Wednesday, April 5. State of Play As of 0630 all is pretty quiet: * Stock futures are down a bit, with major US indexes all pointing to a loss of about 0.2% at the open; * Bonds are selling off a tiny bit a day after a big rally. The 2-year yield is up 4 basis points to 3.87%. Y...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Thursday, March 30. The Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ ) officially entered a new bull market yesterday. Happy bull market! State of Play As of 0630 things are pretty quiet: * Stock futures are pointing to gains led by small caps. The Russell 2000 is up 1.2%, other US indexes up far less (+0....

Good morning contrarians! It is Wednesday, March 29. State of Play As of 0620 it looks like we’re due for a rally: * Stock futures are moving higher led by small caps. The Russell 2000 is up 1.8%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up 0.9% each; * Cryptos are rallying, with Bitcoin up 5% to trade north of $28,000. That’s its highest level since last spring; * Commodities are up a bit. WTI crude oil is up 1% t...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit contrarianpod.substack.com Good morning contrarians! It is Friday, March 24. State of Play As of 0635 there are some re-emerging fears about Deutsche Bank ($DB ) that is weighing on risk appetite and leading to a major rally in bonds: * Stock futures are pointing to a drop at the open, with the S&P 500 down ~0.8%. European stocks are se...