Confluence Podcasts

Sometimes it seems as if the United States and China are heading steadily toward armed conflict. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to offer some hope for investors that this won't be the case. 

The US isn't the only market where bond yields are rising. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss why investors should keep an eye on Europe where the euro has been under pressure. 

Investors want to know who will be the ultimate winners from the AI build out. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss lessons from the internet bubble, which might give us some clues.

Bond yields are a major focus for investors these days, but yields alone only tell part of the story. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez shares what real interest rates are telling us about the current state of the economy and how they figure into investment strategy. 

Bill O'Grady and Mark Keller return for another Confluence Mailbag episode to tackle listener questions on rising interest rates and the war in the Middle East. With no clear end in sight to the conflict, they examine elevated oil prices and the importance of energy diversification. They also consider how gold’s role as a portfolio hedge might be changing and, with the AI trade looking long in the...

Oil has been in the public eye with prices rising to over $100 a barrel, and there is currently no end in sight for the Iran war. Many analysts, though, were surprised that oil did not increase even more during the first six months of the war. The main reason appears to be the way China dramatically cut its imports of oil. Confluence Advisory Director Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss wheth...

As of mid September, the US bond market seems to be immune to efforts by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to bring yields down. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss the current state of the bond market and how investors might respond.

Conservative investors, as a rule, construct their portfolios to, if not anticipate a recession, at least acknowledge the possibility of one. But in doing so, these investors may not fully participate in market rallies. But what if recessions are less common than they used to be? Are these conservative investors needlessly missing out? Confluence Chief Market Strategist, Patrick Fearon Hernandez,...

Investors worried about a possible AI bubble can point to a number of reasons, including rising valuations and debt. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss another concern, China's threat to the AI investment boom.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the third quarter of 2026, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

Great Britain's economic regression the past few years is notable and well documented. So is the long parade of failed prime ministers. Can the newest one make a difference in a way that will matter for investors? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss what we can expect from new the UK prime minister, Andy Burnham.

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge is getting a makeover, and the result may please investors who would benefit from interest rate cuts, which is probably a majority of investors. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to look into how this change may play out for the markets.

Taking ownership stakes in key high-tech companies is only one way the federal government is exerting its influence on the economy. A whole new economic system appears to be emerging, one that Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez calls the corporatist state. Patrick joins Phil Adler to discuss this transition and why as an investment strategist he's taking notice.

Financial markets are always trying to anticipate what the Fed's next move may be. Making an accurate prediction may become more challenging under new Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss Warsh's strategy and how it might impact investors.

China's use of soft power to create a favorable public perception can reveal goals and tendencies useful for investors. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to share what he learned from a recent visit to the Chinese embassy in Washington.

Bill O'Grady and Mark Keller explore why investors should resist the temptation to abandon their core investment style during periods of market momentum. They unpack how oil prices surprisingly avoided a spike given recent events in the Strait of Hormuz, with a note of caution for future changes as the world adjusts. The conversation turns to Chair Warsh's first FOMC meeting and a likely shift tow...

In our latest episode, the Confluence Macroeconomic Team breaks down the six geopolitical trends that we believe will shape the international landscape in the second half of 2026. From the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the future of the dollar's reserve currency status, to the government's growing role in AI and the rise of quantum computing, the conversation covers the issues most likel...

Today's tech giants are poised for a maturity shift over the coming years, transitioning from high growth companies into more established market leaders. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to explain why the technology companies of tomorrow may look like the utility companies of today.

History is rhyming. The last time dividend stocks were this out of favor, the dot-com bubble was peaking. Portfolio Manager Tom Dugan joins Director of RIA Relationships Emily D'Agostino to discuss why that dynamic looks a lot like 1999, what the historical data says about what comes next, and why the Confluence IDEA strategy's quarter-century of consistent philosophy and construction may be preci...

There was a bit of welcome news for consumers as world oil prices were moderating in early June even though the Strait of Hormuz remained essentially closed. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to explain why and discuss whether this is just a short-term phenomenon.

One long trusted economic indicator may no longer reliably indicate a noninflationary environment. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss how governments might be misled and what investors should watch for.

It may have taken a back seat among recent news headlines, but there has been a big shakeup within OPEC. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss what this may mean for investors.

In the latest Confluence Mailbag, Bill O'Grady and Mark Keller revisit their long-held forecast that US hegemony is in decline and consider what a return to a multipolar world order could mean for investors, outlining the shifts and surprises that may shape the evolving geopolitical landscape. The discussion examines the underappreciated economic risks of the Iran conflict, the implications of a 1...

Financial markets appear adjusting to the reality of tariffs. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss what we have learned in the past year and how that impacts investment planning.

Something unusual happened to the price of gold as the Iran war broke out. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler today to discuss what happened and what this might mean for the future.