Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts

Circle Back is back with another live episode, breaking down the biggest stories and chaos from Gambling Twitter this week. Host Jacob Gramegna is joined by Porter, Isaac Rose-Berman, and Joey Knish as the crew dives into the wild finish to the World Cup: Team USA's elimination at the hands of Belgium amid controversy over President Trump's call to FIFA president Gianni Infantino, Cristiano Ronald...

Most people are using AI as a betting oracle, and it's costing them money. Rob Pizzola breaks down the right way to actually use AI for sports betting — not by asking it who wins tonight's games, but by treating it as a research assistant, a coder, and a data scientist that does the labor while you bring the judgment. Rob walks through a real example from the World Cup, where he built an expected...

The FIFA World Cup is in absolute chaos after reports that Florian Balogun’s red card suspension was reversed ahead of USA vs Belgium following a high-profile intervention involving Donald Trump, sparking major backlash over corruption concerns, competitive integrity, and whether governing bodies are being influenced at the highest level. The crew also breaks down a separate controversy involving...

Live on this week’s Circle Back, the crew breaks down one of the biggest cross-sport news days of the year. The United States have advanced in the FIFA World Cup, but the win is overshadowed after a controversial red card to Florian Balogun that will now see him miss a massive matchup against Belgium. The panel discusses what the decision means on the field — and what it could mean for the betting...

Most bettors think their edge comes from projection models, numbers, or opinions they’ve built on their own work. But there’s one thing many of them ignore completely: the market. In this video, Rob Pizzola breaks down why ignoring line movement and market information is one of the most expensive mistakes a bettor can make — not because the market is always right, but because it constantly provide...

On today's Circle Back, we break down the controversy surrounding Matt Miller after years of allegations resurfaced following his recent GoFundMe campaign, discuss Canada's dramatic 1-0 stoppage-time win over South Africa to advance at the World Cup, look at the latest World Cup odds including the United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and debate the NFL tampering questions surrounding Adam Sch...

Today on Circle Back LIVE, we’re diving into the biggest gambling conversations happening right now — from World Cup betting angles and market reactions to the growing debate between prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks. The panel breaks down where sharp bettors are finding edges, what’s driving the latest sportsbook vs prediction market discussion, and the “hidden” sources of betting in...

Every time a new sport gets going or a new account starts popping up on social media, the same question starts flooding in: should I trust this person’s record? Rob Pizzola breaks down the exact checklist he uses when evaluating whether a sports bettor is actually legit or just riding variance and good timing. From win-loss records that don’t tell the full story, to missing tracking metrics like c...

The Wall Street Journal investigation into a major prediction market platform alleging offshore promotional tactics, misleading creator campaigns, and staged “wins” sparks debate about how far marketing manipulation may be going in the space. The crew also reacts to a blockbuster NHL trade sending Brady Tkachuk to the Florida Panthers, and breaks down Cabo Verde’s stunning World Cup run after secu...

Prediction markets are putting real pressure on traditional sportsbooks as reduced-vig pricing continues to reshape how odds are being offered across the industry. The panel breaks down how books are still hanging onto outdated pricing structures—like heavy two-way lines and inefficient World Cup markets—while prediction markets push tighter spreads and more competitive pricing models. The convers...

In this episode of Circles Off, host Jacob Gramegna is joined by Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) for a unique tier list breakdown that ranks sports betting personalities based on something rarely discussed in betting debates: their educational backgrounds — and how useful those degrees actually are in becoming a winning bettor. The discussion runs through a full S to D tier system, evaluating a w...

The UFC 250 DM scandal involving Daniel Cormier and Eric Trump sits at the center of the episode after alleged Instagram messages surfaced suggesting requests for UFC betting intel ahead of fights at the White House, with screenshots posted and then deleted as both sides deny authenticity and claim hacking, fueling debate over whether the story is real or fabricated. The crew also reacts to the Kn...

We break down one of the most unbelievable NBA Finals games in recent memory as the Knicks storm back from a 29-point deficit to beat the Spurs in Game 4 and take a 3-1 series lead. We go through how the comeback unfolded, the key turning points, and the wild betting implications around the game, including massive live movement on ProphetX that saw the Knicks priced as high as 30-1 mid-game. We al...

Circles Off sits down with Andrew Gombas for a deep dive into one of the most complete career paths in modern sports betting. Andrew has done nearly every job in the industry — from pick selling, to running betting groups, to working inside PPH-style operations, to becoming a full-time bettor focused heavily on MMA. In this conversation with Rob Pizzola, he breaks down what each side of the indust...

Jeff Nadu faces backlash after a betting screenshot from a Novig post goes viral, with viewers zooming in on what appears to be a $1.06 wager and sparking criticism over how he presents himself as a sports bettor. The situation escalates as the screenshot spreads online, fueling debate around credibility, unit sizing, and perception in public-facing betting content. Meanwhile, a $35K crypto disput...

These New Betting Laws are already getting pushback after Massachusetts introduced a rule requiring sportsbooks to notify bettors when their accounts are limited and provide a reason. On paper, it’s framed as transparency for consumers, but early reactions from bettors suggest it doesn’t actually explain much—just a polished way of saying winning action isn’t welcome. The debate has quickly turned...

Circles Off sits down with sharp bettor Thon Misser (@ThonMisser) for a deep dive into how he actually approaches modern betting markets, from live wagering to prediction markets and everything in between. Thon has quietly built a reputation for finding edges in places most bettors ignore — including niche sports like Japanese baseball, reality TV markets, and newer prediction market platforms. In...

A betting influencer, Taylor Mathis, has sparked controversy after a Game 7 betting slip post showing one side of a wager while appearing to place another, leading to a wave of backlash and confusion across Gambling Twitter. The crew breaks down the fallout, the viral $1.7 million parlay sweat that divided the community, whether sportsbooks should ever void bets placed in error, and the growing de...

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s camp sending a legal warning to Underdog over a foul-baiting board game has sparked a much larger conversation about where the line is between creative sports content and athlete representation rights. Jacob Gramegna, Chris Dierkes, Mike (Peanut Bettor), and Shipper break down what actually happened, why Underdog is refusing to back down, and what this says about how spor...

Most bettors are losing money on player props because they’re using the wrong inputs. If you’re looking at a player’s last 10, 15, or 20 games to project a prop, you’re not finding an edge — you’re creating a false one. In this video, Rob Pizzola breaks down one of the most common and costly mistakes in sports betting: treating hit rates like probabilities. It might look like math. It might feel l...

DraftKings co-founder responds directly to recent criticism and sparks a wider debate about prediction markets, how sportsbooks are evolving, and whether the industry is heading in the right direction or not. The crew breaks down that situation alongside a NASCAR betting controversy where a wager was graded as a loss instead of being voided, triggering backlash over how sportsbooks handle unexpect...

DraftKings co-founder Matt Kalish set Gambling Twitter on fire after a viral rant about prediction markets, sharp bettors, retail gamblers, and the future of sports betting. Jacob Gramegna, Joey Knish, Storm Pig, and Porter of BA Analytics react to the entire situation, break down the backlash, and discuss what the conversation says about the current state of the gambling industry. The crew also d...

In this Circles Off Q&A, Rob Pizzola is joined by Plus EV Analytics, Matt Buchalter, for a deep dive into sports betting modeling — how it actually works in practice, what separates good models from bad ones, and how sharp bettors think about building and evaluating their edge. This episode is built around 10 of the toughest modeling questions pulled directly from Circles Off content and community...

In this episode of Circles Off, Jacob Gramegna is joined by Rob Pizzola and Matt Buchalter as they react to a viral NBA Same Game Parlay strategy from Guy Boston Sports that has been circulating across YouTube. The group breaks down the ideas presented in the video titled “My Winning Same Game Parlay Strategy for the NBA,” which has gathered tens of thousands of views, and examines whether the log...

The UFC betting market is under scrutiny again after suspicious line movement on Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley caused sportsbooks to pull the fight entirely before Brady won as a massive underdog. The crew also discusses Sean Strickland upsetting Khamzat Chimaev, new legislation aimed at sportsbook limiting practices in New Jersey, and the viral World Cup betting strategy claiming bettors can “gu...