China Perspectives

Sabrin Chowdhury from BMI speaks on China’s dominance in global rare earths and implications on geopolitics and prices. (00:00) - Introduction of Sabrin and her rare earths coverage (01:27) - Why China dominates global rare earths supply chain (03:31) - China’s dependence on Myanmar for heavy rare earth feedstock (05:17) - Western economies’ supply chain diversification strategies (09:00) - Potent...

This episode explores China’s economic linkages with Latin America (LatAm), with Fitch Ratings’ Todd Martinez and Janice Chong, and the implications of the resurgence of the US “Monroe Doctrine” on these economic ties and for Chinese corporates. (00:00) - Introduction (01:44) - Overview of China’s Economic Ties with LatAm (05:34) - Outlook for the LatAm-China Trade Relationship (09:05) - LatAm’s R...

  A fireside chat on Fitch’s 2026 credit outlook for China’s sovereign, corporate, local government and banking sectors with Jeremy Zook, Ying Wang, Samuel Kwok and Grace Wu. (01:05) - Macro outlook (06:05) - Deteriorating China property outlook (06:58) - Neutral China LGFV outlook (09:52) - China banks’ strategy amid deteriorating outlook (11:32) - Anti-involution campaign (13:41) - Local governm...

Davis Sun, Senior Director at Fitch Ratings, provides a progress report on China’s debt substitution plan and its impact on local government vehicles (LGFVs) and finances, as well as an outlook for 2026 and beyond. (00:23) - Introduction (01:50) - Recent LGFV Sector Developments (05:40) - Progress of the Debt Substitution Programme (09:45) - LGFV Financial Health Amid Debt Substitution (13:17) - F...

Fitch analysts discuss intensifying competition between Meituan and Alibaba in China’s food delivery and instant retail business. (00:22) - Introduction to instant retail in China (01:19) - Competitive landscape and on-going price war (02:54) - Meituan's strategy to defend market leadership (05:18) - Alibaba's challenges and opportunities (07:02) - Meituan's rating outlook change (09:38) - Alibaba...

Chris Clague, an Associate Fellow at the IISS and an independent advisor on trade and supply chains, discusses recent trends in China-ASEAN trade and investment flows, and how they may be affected by US President Trump’s tariff policies. (00:00) - Introduction (02:04) - Overview of China/ASEAN trade and investment (06:26) - Transshipments (09:57) - Transshipment tariffs effect on China’s investmen...

Katie Chen, Senior Director at Fitch Ratings, and Franco Lam , Director, share their insights on the recent regulatory reforms in China’s AMC sector. (00:48) - Recent regulatory reform and impact (03:49) - Opportunities and challenges for AMCs (07:01) - What investors should watch out for (09:30) - Improvement in China AMCs’ capital buffer (11:32) - China AMCs’ ownership changes (13:54) - Rating a...

This episode explores key changes and credit trends in China’s power sector, including renewables growth and market reforms. Insights from Penny Chen, Senior Director, Fitch Ratings, reveal what lies ahead for major power generators. (00:00) - Introduction (00:45) - Key Changes in China’s Power Sector (03:17) - Key Credit Themes for Power Generators (06:16) - Credit Outlook on China’s Power Sector...

Harry Hu, Senior Director at Fitch Ratings, discusses China's recent efforts to manage LGFV risks, including LGFV reclassification and debt substitution plans, along with local government debt trends. (00:00) - Introduction (01:30) - LGFV Debt Control Measures (03:07) - LGFV Reclassification (04:59) - LGFV Debt Substitution Plan (06:55) - Outlook for Special Purpose Bonds (09:34) - Local Governmen...

Laura Zhai, Senior Director at Fitch Ratings, discusses the impact of US tariff hikes on China's commodity sectors. (00:00) - Introduction (00:41) - Impact on aluminum and copper (04:43) - Impact on steel (07:33) - Impact on chemicals (10:28) - China’s energy import cost

Amid rapidly changing US trade policies, Fitch analysts, Alex Muscatelli and Janice Chong, discuss the macroeconomic and corporate level impacts on China from rising US tariffs. (00:00) - Introduction (02:10) - Fitch’s Tariff Baseline (04:30) - Modeling the Economic Impact of Tariffs (07:12) - China’s Trade Diversification (08:55) - Tariffs and China’s Economic Outlook (11:01) - Corporate Sector T...

A fireside chat on Fitch’s 2025 credit outlook for China’s sovereign, corporate, local government and banking sectors with Jeremy Zook, Ying Wang, Samuel Kwok and Grace Wu. (00:00) - Introduction (00:47) - Macro and Sovereign Outlook (03:33) - Impact of US Tariffs on China Corporates (04:55) - Property sector outlook (05:53) - Impact of Policy Simulus on Corporates (07:10) - Local Government Finan...

Jinny Yan, Chief China Economist at ICBC Standard Bank, discusses her outlook for China’s economy in 2025 and the government’s policy measures and priorities, particularly its focus on de-risking, diversifying and enhancing domestic capacity. (00:00) - Introduction (01:01) - Key Issues to Watch in 2025 (02:32) - US/China Trade War Prospects (06:29) - Assessing China’s Resilience to Trade Tensions...

Jing Yang, Director of Fitch Ratings, discusses key credit trends of China’s solar PV manufacturing industry.   (00:00) - Introduction (00:46) - Current state of the industry and reason for oversupply (04:37) - Stage of market re-balancing (08:00) - Effectiveness of government response (13:02) - Impact of Trump 2.0 tariff hikes

David Wang, Professor at the Virginia Tech Dept. of Economics and former Credit Suisse Head of APAC (ex-Japan)Economics, joins us to discuss deflationary risks in the Chinese economy and whether the recent policy stimulus can address these pressures. (00:00) - Introduction (01:31) - China’s Economic Prospects (05:10) - Drivers of deflationary pressures (08:37) - Expectations for household confiden...

Elaine Xu, Director in Fitch’s Financial Institutions team, provides an update on how Chinese banks are managing the challenges from economic headwinds, the property correction, and LGFV debt renegotiations. (00:00) - Introduction (01:38) - Recent trends in bank performance (05:06) - Property sector stress impact on banks (07:26) - Banks role in property policy response (09:26) - LGFV exposures an...

Samuel Kwok, Head of Fitch’s APAC International Public Finance shares his views on China’s local government and LGFV debt problem. (01:21) - 1H24 local governments’ fiscal trends (04:02) - Expect marginal improvement in 2H24 (05:30) - Effect of measures to de-risk twelve “high-risk” provinces (08:22) - LGFVs’ onshore bond yields at record low (11:28) - Introduction of top three credit themes (12:2...

Shuncheng Zhang, Associate Director of Fitch’s China Corporates Team based in Shanghai, shares China’s housing demand forecast from 2024 to 2040. (00:00) - Introduction (01:05) - 2024-2040 Housing Demand (03:43) - New Private Home Supply (06:08) - Overview of Forecast Model (09:13) - Factors Leading to Demand Plunge (12:47) - Public and Secondary Housing Supply (13:58) - Fitch’s Forecast vs. Other...

Lan Wang, Senior Director in Fitch’s Credit Policy Group, joins for a wide-ranging discussion on China credit developments, including recent rating actions, growth prospects, property and banking sector outlooks, and recent EU tariffs on Chinese EVs. (00:00) - Introduction (00:55) - China Sovereign Rating Action (01:48) - Rating actions in other Chinese entities (04:40) - 2024 Macro Outlook for Ch...

Henry Hao, Principal Economist at CRU, discusses structural shifts of China’s role in the global commodity market.

Wei Yu, Director of Fitch Ratings, discusses key credit trends of China’s coal mining industry. (00:00) - Introduction (00:34) - View on coal prices (02:00) - Debt reduction (03:21) - Financial burden and structural challenges (06:10) - Financing conditions (07:23) - Energy transition risks

Dr. Deborah Elms, Head of Trade Policy at the Hinrich Foundation, discusses China-ASEAN trade ties focusing on key policy issues, supply chain diversification trends, and the outlook for the trade relationship amid rising geopolitical risks. (00:00) - Introduction (04:43) - China-ASEAN Trade Trends (07:02) - Impact of RCEP (09:34) - Trade Policy Outlook (13:50) - China’s View of ASEAN Trade Relati...

Katie Chen, Senior Director of Fitch Ratings, discusses key credit trends of China’s Big Four national asset management companies.   (00:00) - Introduction (01:30) - National AMCs' evolving risks (04:35) - 2024 sector credit outlook (06:49) - Government support stance (10:08) - Differentiation in government export (11:37) - National AMCs' policy role (14:06) - Change of ownership (16:44) - Rating...

Jeremy Zook and Ying Wang, co-hosts of China Perspectives podcast, hold a fireside chat about China’s 2024 credit outlook.  (00:00) - Introduction (00:45) - 2024 macro view (02:53) - Property sector outlook (04:29) - Policy response (07:17) - Infrastructure investment growth (08:41) - Sovereign rating pressure (11:10) - LGFV sector outlook (13:31) - Corporate sector outlook (16:21) - Banking secto...

Flora Zhu, Director in Fitch’s Corporate Research team in Beijing discusses shifting FDI and trade patterns by Chinese corporates in the context of global supply chain diversification. (00:00) - Introduction (01:49) - Drivers of Outbound FDI (03:48) - Key FDI Destinations (06:04) - Sectors Driving Outbound FDI (08:39) - Outlook for Outbound FDI (10:29) - China’s Shifting Trade Patterns (12:53) - I...