BID/ASK

Anthropic just filed its S-1, and the headline number is a trap: an $80.7 billion net loss that isn't cash burn at all. We break down what it actually means, who it moves Plus: Mondays edge ,What to actually watch into earnings this week as GOOGL and MSFT report Wednesday and SNDK and INTC report Thursday, in a tape that just sold LRCX and WDC on beats. Israel votes Tuesday in a dead heat and...

NO BLACK MONDAY, BUT THE CREDIT MARKET IS FLASHING RED. CRWV CDS AT RECORD 1,194 BPS, ORCL ONE NOTCH FROM JUNK, THE FORCE MAJEURE CRACK IN AI BACKLOGS, AND THE NVIDIA OPENAI ORACLE CIRCLE TRADE. CREDIT LEADS, EQUITY FOLLOWS.

Welcome: 1:00 Anthropic Statement by Dario. What did he say and why does it matter? What could be the reason behind the statement and the timing of it? 21:00 - Clarity Act: What is a procedural vote and why does it matter? What happens next and what stocks are we watching to take advantage of this 27:00 - CRCL - Why does CRCL benefit and what is backing CRCL's stablecoins? 28:00 - When TLT tip...

Seasonality , Fomc , and The Bessent put recap.

BESSENT SANCTIONS, JENSEN SWEATS, WARSH LURKS WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK IN THE MARKETS....

SITUATIONAL AWARENESS WENT FROM 45 BILLION TO 10 BILLION ON 400 PERCENT LEVERAGE, AND GRIFFIN'S CITADEL TOOK THE BOOK AT A DISCOUNT. CRAMER CALLS IT A CLEARING EVENT, AND THE TAPE AGREES. THE MARKET RIPPED STRAIGHT OFF THE FORCED SELLING INTO FRESH RECORD HIGHS. THEN THE OTHER SHOE. SPCX LOCKUP CRACKS OPEN AUGUST 6, DUMPING 911 MILLION SHARES WORTH 123 BILLION INTO THE FLOAT. WAS THAT THE BOTT...

FOMC IS THE MAIN EVENT AND IT IS WARSH IN THE CHAIR. WE BREAK DOWN THE DECISION, THE STATEMENT LANGUAGE, AND WHAT WARSH ACTUALLY SIGNALED VERSUS WHAT THE TAPE WANTED TO HEAR. IS THE MARKET GETTING THE REGIME CHANGE IT PRICED IN OR IS IT STILL WAITING. THEN WE GO WHERE THE MONEY IS MOVING. MOMENTUM NAMES ARE LEADING THE MOVE DOWN. THE SAME LEADERSHIP THAT CARRIED THE TAPE HIGHER IS NOW OUT FRONT ON...

THE 30YR HAS BEEN ABOVE 5 FOR THE LONGEST STRETCH SINCE 2007, WITH THE FED 150BP LOWER THAN IT WAS THEN. THAT GAP IS TERM PREMIUM, NOT POLICY. INSIDE: WHY THE FED CANT FIX THE LONG END, HOW IT TRANSMITS TO YOUR AI NAMES, AND WHAT SECTION 301 DOES TO THE INFLATION LEG ON FRIDAY.

This week on Bid/Ask: the Korean ants. Who the gaemi are, why Korea's margin debt is growing at double the pace of the US and China, and why traders there are paying nearly 10 percent interest to stay levered long. With Samsung and SK Hynix making up 42 percent of the entire KOSPI, a crack in Seoul becomes a crack in MU, SNDK, and the whole photonics complex by the New York open. Plus the flow...

SK Hynix prices the biggest foreign listing in US history into a bleeding semi tape. The CLARITY Act has three Senate weeks to live or it's dead until 2030. And airlines report earnings with jet fuel surging on the Iran escalation. Three stories, one barrel of oil pricing all of them. We break down the $28B Hynix ADR debut and what it means for DRAM and MU, the 60 vote math blocking crypto&#39...

ON THIS EPISODE OF THE BID/ASK PODCAST WE BREAK DOWN THE TWO BIGGEST STORIES HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEK. FIRST, META RIPS NEARLY 9% ON REPORTS OF META COMPUTE, A NEW CLOUD BUSINESS BUILT TO RENT OUT EXCESS AI CAPACITY FROM ITS $125 TO $145 BILLION INFRASTRUCTURE BUILDOUT. WE EXPLAIN WHY THE CAPEX BEAR CASE THAT CRUSHED THE STOCK ALL YEAR JUST GOT REPRICED, WHAT TRUST ME CAPEX VERSUS SHOW ME CAP...

MICRON'S RECORD QUARTER, THE AI INFRASTRUCTURE READ THROUGH, AND WARSH'S DOLLAR. SEASON 2 KICKS OFF WITH THE BIGGEST CATALYST OF THE WEEK.

That's a wrap on Season 1. We came in when the tape was moving, covered the names that mattered, and didn't sugarcoat a single print. That's what this show is built on no filler, no noise, just the market as it actually is. If this gave you an edge, if it made you think differently about a setup or a sector that's the whole point. Markets don't care about your feelings, and nei...

EVERYONE IS BUYING THE GOLD RUSH. WE'RE BUYING THE SHOVELS. IN THIS EPISODE WE GO ONE LAYER BENEATH THE HBM AND PHOTONICS NAMES EVERYONE IS ALREADY IN AND MAP THE SUPPLY CHAIN PLAYS THE MARKET HASN'T FULLY PRICED. PACKAGING. SUBSTRATES. THERMAL. BONDING EQUIPMENT. THE INVISIBLE RACK THAT MAKES THE WHOLE MACHINE RUN.

NVDA just dropped a monster quarter $81B in revenue, $91B Q2 guide, data center nearly doubling YoY. But the real trade isn't the headline. It's what Jensen can't ship fast enough. HBM is sold out through 2026. CoWoS packaging is maxed. Substrates are backlogged. We break down every layer of the AI supply chain bottleneck and the tickers that move when NVDA can't keep up with itsel...

OPEX

Stock price = Earnings per share × Multiple (P/E). Earnings tell you what the company makes. The multiple tells you what the market is willing to pay for those earnings. A rerating or de-rating is when that second number changes without earnings changing at all.

In this episode, we break down one of the biggest market days of the year: the FAANG and mega cap earnings wave alongside Jerome Powell’s final Federal Reserve meeting as Chair. We start with Big Tech. Meta delivered strong revenue and earnings growth, but investors focused on another major jump in AI and data center spending. Alphabet may have posted the cleanest report of the group, with powerfu...

What do a 1901 railroad war, a grocery store chain, and a video game retailer have in common? Someone ran out of shares to buy. In this episode we break down the anatomy of the locked-float squeeze from JP Morgan and E.H. Harriman obliterating shorts on Northern Pacific Railway, to Porsche quietly cornering Volkswagen and briefly making it the largest company on earth, to WSB turning GameStop into...

11 consecutive green days. an 11% move. a 1-in-450 event and you watched it happen in real time. but nobody's talking about what comes next. in this episode we break down the only question that matters right now: what happens in session 12 and beyond? we run the historical analogs 2002, 2008, 2009, 2020 and show you exactly how each of those rips resolved. the data is clear. the regime call is...

Is the ceasefire real. Is the inflation print realer. On April 8th the US and Iran agreed to a two week pause brokered by Pakistan. Iran put forward a 10 point proposal covering Hormuz transit, sanctions relief, war reparations and nuclear enrichment. Trump called it workable. Iran called it a victory. Israel kept bombing Lebanon anyway. A few hours later the market remembered Friday exists. March...

the quantatollah was right. on sunday night, iran's parliament speaker posted trading advice to the world. he called trump's pre-market announcements a reverse indicator and told everyone to fade the pump. the crowd loved it. dubbed him the quantatollah. then monday morning came and every single one of them loaded calls into the iran headline anyway. you know how it ended. this episode we...

FIVE MINUTES BEFORE TRUMP ANNOUNCED THE 90-DAY TARIFF PAUSE, AN ANOMALOUS $1.5 BILLION CLIP HIT ES FUTURES. OIL WAS SOLD SHORT IN SIZE SIMULTANEOUSLY. THE MOVES WERE 4 TO 6 TIMES LARGER THAN ANY OTHER TRADE DURING THAT CLOSE. COINCIDENCE IS A WORD. SO IS FRONTRUNNING. IN THIS EPISODE OF BID/ASK, WE BREAK DOWN THE SEQUENCE THAT HAS MARKETS ASKING THE QUESTION NOBODY IN FINANCIAL MEDIA WANTS TO ANSW...

AI IS EATING SOFTWARE. BANKS ARE EATING CRYPTO. THE SOFTWARE SECTOR JUST ENTERED A BEAR MARKET AND NOBODY RANG A BELL. THE ISHARES EXPANDED TECH-SOFTWARE ETF IGV IS DOWN 24% YEAR-TO-DATE. ORACLE IS DOWN 56% FROM ITS SEPTEMBER PEAK. SALESFORCE, ADOBE, WORKDAY, SERVICENOW : ALL IN FREE FALL. AND THE CATALYST WASN'T A RECESSION OR A FED PIVOT. IT WAS ANTHROPIC LAUNCHING A DESKTOP AI AGENT THAT CA...

WHILE IRAN WAS BURNING TANKERS AND CLOSING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, THE BLS DROPPED A JOBS REPORT NOBODY ASKED FOR. 50,000 JOBS. SOFT. UGLY. AND COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT TO THE BIGGEST MACRO TRADE OF 2026. BECAUSE WHILE YOU WERE WATCHING NFP, SCOTT BESSENT FORMER SOROS CIO, MACRO TRADER TURNED TREASURY SECRETARY WAS QUIETLY TURNING THE US GOVERNMENT INTO THE WORLD'S BIGGEST OIL MACRO FUND. SHORT FRO...