Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

Henry warned Republicans they were in for a terrible night— and called it close !—but how could anyone have anticipated an electoral massacre of such proportions? Henry's got a short rant to go over what we know so far and to consider some of the popular takes on what went wrong. We're taking a week off, but Beyond the Polls will be back after that to get an early start on assessing the road to '2...

Midterms are just days away, so it's busy season for everyone in the election prediction biz. This week, there's no rant and no ads; just Henry and a couple of sleep-deprived friends to help you get your bearings ahead of another high-stakes cycle. First up is Sean Patrick Maloney—former U.S. Ambassador to the OECD and the CEO of the Coalition for Prediction Markets. He joins to explain the deriva...

There's no getting around the fact that Republicans are unpopular these days and that they're in for an unpleasant midterm. But should we really believe the flood will reach the Midwest or Rust Belt districts that elevated President Trump to double-digit margins? Patrick Rufini, founding partner of Echelon Insights, doesn't think so. He sits down with Henry to make his case.  Plus, Henry draws an...

The midterms are just weeks away, and Democrats are still enjoying a historically large lead in the generic congressional ballot. In response, the president is jetting about to rally support in key states. However, unlike the boldly expansive campaigns of MAGA ascendancy, his visits to safe districts reveal a defensive strategy aimed at mitigating losses. Henry rants his way through this developme...

There's good news and bad news, Toto: We are still in Kansas, but it's not the safe state we'd grown used to. With the midterms less than a month away, and reports confirming the GOP's move to divert funds to tightening races in the agricultural belt, Henry opts to fly solo this week to survey the windswept field ahead of the battle. Considerable movement has occurred in response to the president'...

Americans are often in a hurry, always looking for ways to save time. Yet back in the olden days, whenever Americans held an election, the public had to wait until every ballot was tallied before an official announcement of the results. Though that remains the method for squeaker contests, election-day reporting outlets strive to stay ahead of the curve wherever possible. Enter the exit pollers. H...

The polling business has undergone profound changes since the start of the 21st century, especially in its response to new technology and the altered habits of potential respondents. We often hear from representatives of the media or university end of polling, but today Henry sits down with a guest who has skin in the game: professional political pollster Jon Lerner. The two discuss how these new...

After last week's tour of competitive House races, it's time to look to the Senate battlegrounds. Though nobody can predict the future, our friend Kyle Kondik brings his Sabato's Crystal Ball to assess this cycle's key toss-ups, leans, and tight holds—the races that will decide who controls the upper chamber. He and Henry dart about the map to consider the latest on the campaigns in Georgia, Michi...

The primaries are nearly finished, and Labor Day is behind us—that means it's officially midterm season! To mark the occasion, Henry catches up with Cook Political Report's Erin Covey to discuss the races that look competitive now in mid-September and how she'll gauge contests as we approach November. From consideration of surprising events and the movement of outside expenditures, Henry and Erin...

With all due respect to grammarians, when we at Beyond the Polls think of New Hampshire, hard facts and rock-solid political analysis from our friend Dante Scala are foremost in mind. In anticipation of Tuesday's Democratic primary, he and Henry discuss the tectonic political shift in the Granite State now that Jeanne Shaheen is retiring—along with the new presidential primary ordering that has pu...

With the primary results in from the most competitive states, we're entering the calm-before-the-storm season of this year's midterm election. But rather than letting their guard down, top election analysts are bracing for another wacky cycle like the one that defied forecasts in 2o22. NBC's chief data analyst, Steve Kornacki, returns to Beyond the Polls to discuss how current conditions resemble...

South Carolina Republicans are heading back to the voting booth for the Senate runoff to select their nominee. Their choice is between Ralph Norman, a self-described MAGA outsider who has represented the state's Fifth Congressional District since 2017, and Darline Graham, the Trump-endorsed incumbent appointed last month following the sudden passing of her brother Lindsey.  For a survey of this su...

Florida's political environment has transformed profoundly over the last few decades. Following its mid-decadal redistricting, the state is preparing for an unusually high number of close contests in next week's primary, especially on the Republican side. Peter Schorsh, founder and editor of Florida Politics , joins Henry to forecast the scattered storms hanging above Florida's panhandle (CD-02),...

The Wisconsin state motto is one word: Forward. And after Tuesday's primary in Michigan, we're reminded again that the progressive left has the momentum in the Democratic Party. To dive into what this left-wing insurgency means for Wisconsin, Henry brings back the Badger State's premier election analyst, Craig Gilbert.  Craig explains how Democratic Socialist gubernatorial candidate Francesca Hong...

A primary-palooza is days away, with contests set for August 4th in Kansas, Missouri, Washington, and Virginia. But all eyes are on Michigan, a bellwether state with ambitious representatives tugging hard at it left, right, and center. Henry's here to shepherd us through the state's long list of battleground congressional districts. And, of course, he closely inspects the turnout trends and inside...

This series is all about pushing past the dichotomies of American politics to better understand why voters prefer X to Y, Yea to Nay, or Red to Blue. Our friends at the Pew Research Center are of a like mind, so we asked Director of Politics Jocelyn Kiley to join Henry to discuss the center's new political typology: Beyond Red vs. Blue . Tune in to understand Pew's methods and analysis of the Amer...

Partisan trends being what they are, it's increasingly rare to see an election actually decided in November. The parties matter more, the candidates a bit less. But that divide doesn't seem so big in the Grand Canyon State, and Arizonans like a maverick. Chuck Warren of Breaking Battlegrounds  joins Henry to discuss the flamboyant characters vying for congressional districts 1, 5, and 6, along wit...

The Democratic Socialists of America have laid their plans, are on the march, and have been making steady gains, but established orders aren't toppled in a day... and there's trouble in paradise. Henry rants his way through the fall of Graham Platner, Abdul El-Sayed's edge in his race for Michigan's Senate seat, and Melat Kiros' victory in Colorado's 1st district. Plus, we're back with an ad of th...

America's birthday is almost here, and the semiquincentennial milestone imbues the annual celebration with special significance. For this reason, Henry sits down with the American Enterprise Institute's Karlyn Bowman to discuss her latest report,  America at 250: Surveying Change and Continuity on Civic Values , a grand survey comparing American sentiments today with those of respondents nearly 30...

Americans all rightly make a great deal about our democracy. But the partisan element sets in quickly, and the incessant debate extends even beyond the candidates and initiatives on the ballot. Stephen Richer (a fellow of the Cato Institute and Harvard Kennedy School and former Maricopa County recorder) joins Henry to discuss past and contemporary efforts to address fundamental concerns about voti...

Start spreading the news: New Yorkers are hitting the polls next week, and the election is gonna be something wild. Cook Political's Erin Covey is our tour de force guide through the many candidates vying to represent the city's distinct locales, including a "Commie Corridor," which bumps up against the Wall Street district, which lies just south of the newlywed Upper East/Upper West Side "You've...

We've got Senate runoffs in the Deep South next week, and that means we already know what's in the bag... right? Wrong! Jessica Taylor, Cook Political Report's Senate and Governors Editor, returns to update us on a couple of surprisingly close Republican primaries. Tune in to hear about an Alabama outsider's formidable challenge to the Trump-endorsed candidate and the Republicans hoping to unseat...

Though election watchers generally have to make some peace with selfish motives and unpleasant truths, there is more to democracy than the cynics would have you believe. Sean Trende is back for a chat on this theme as it applies to the redistricting wars. In 2020, the Virginia Supreme Court tasked Sean with helping draft the commonwealth's congressional map—the very map that state Democrats unsucc...

America is a change agent. Just this week, we witnessed another sign of that as unstoppable MAGA momentum pushed notorious Ken Paxton to a walloping victory over party loyalist John Cornyn. So how does one gauge public opinion in such a dynamic terrain? To answer that, Henry sits down with James Kanagasooriam of the research firm Focaldata. The duo discusses the history of polling and the current...

Texas is known for super-sizing every endeavor, so amid another hyper-polarized election season you can bet on a spectacle with an ensemble cast down south. Scott Braddock of Quorum Report joins Henry this week to give us the inside scoop on the Cornyn-Paxton Senate runoff and a close look at the characters vying for redrawn House districts around the major metro areas. Plus, Henry examines this w...