Bell Curve

This episode of Bell Curve explores the art of valuing L1 ecosystems. Should you look a protocols transaction fees vs inflation, # of developers, applications built on top or something else? We then discuss SBF's arrest, Sushi's fee proposal, the fixed token supply debate, 2023's outlook and more! My favorite segment? The fixed token supply debate - this is about to be a widely contested topic. -...

Blockworks just released a new podcast called 1000x! We're dropping the first episode here as we think you might want to add this podcast to the lineup. 1000x is a crypto markets podcast hosted by professional traders Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg that dives deep into the macro and micro factors that represent the lifeblood of digital money and web3.  In this episode, Avi and Jonah discuss how to...

Season 2 | Episode 6 In this episode of Bell Curve, Chris Burniske and Fernando Martinelli join us to discuss how to build sustainable, value-accruing protocols. We start with this simple question and dive deep into the mechanics behind token value accrual. The group discusses DAO capital allocation, evolving fee markets, the efficacy of airdrops, rewarding labor vs capital, the problem with a fix...

This episode of Bell Curve explores Binance's proof-of-reserves controversy, Alameda's crazy venture portfolio, why Alt L1s were artificially overpriced, Maple Finance's $36M default and more! My favorite segment? Why the Alt L1 Thesis is fundamentally broken. Did SOL's mooning valuation (underpinned by FTX/SBF) lead to broken relative-value metrics for other L1s? Tune in to find out! - - Timestam...

Season 2 | Episode 5 In this episode of Bell Curve, Julz Rosenberg and Charles St. Louis join us to discuss experiments in DAO governance and organizational structure. We start with the evolution of DAOs and the gradual transition from social to programmatic systems. We then explore the innovations in DAO governance, the tendency to over-index on decentralization, how to increase organization legi...

This episode of Bell Curve explores SBF's New York Times interview and his grand attempt to manipulate the media. We discuss SBF's strategy, the likelihood of SBF jail time and what to expect next. We then discuss the state of crypto, where leverage will blow up next, OpenSea's shrinking market share, Coinbase vs Apple and more! - - Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:36) SBF’s Grand Manipulation...

Season 2 | Episode 4 In this episode of Bell Curve, Tarun Chitra joins us to discuss the hottest on-chain topic in crypto: DAO treasury management. Even in the bear market, DAOs have over $8.8B in treasury assets. However, these assets are primarily unused, misallocated and lack diversification. Tarun tells us how DAOs should approach the treasury allocation problem and how to hedge risks, create...

This episode of Bell Curve explores Genesis' fallout and the knock on-effects for DCG. We discuss how we got here, the likelihood of bankruptcy, implications for Grayscale's GBTC trust and which dominos might fall next. We then discuss the bloodshed in the Bitcoin mining market, Bitcoin's changing narrative, token value accrual and why optimism always wins. -- Follow Vance: https://twitter.com/pyt...

Season 2 | Episode 3 In this episode of Bell Curve, Mika Honkasalo and Shreyas Hariharan join us to discuss how to grow a DAO. We explore Coase's Theory of the Firm, the tradeoffs between immutability and efficiency, scalable governance frameworks and value creation vs capture. My favorite segment is "Is Your Protocol Easily Forkable?" - you won't want to miss it! - - Timestamps: (00:00) Intro: Pr...

This episode of Bell Curve explores the myth of Alameda and how SBF's mismanagement led to FTX's collapse. We start with Alameda's transition from delta neutral to punting altcoins and the twisted relationship between Alameda and FTX. We then discuss the mainstream media's terrible coverage, Genesis' fallout and the regulatory outlook. We finish by asking the difficult question, "is this the botto...

Season 2 | Episode 2 In this episode of Bell Curve, we are joined by Larry Sukernik and Derek Hsue to discuss what DAOs can learn from corporate governance. Should DAOs optimize for token holders or users? How can DAOs scale while minimizing the principal-agent problem? Should DAOs be governed liked an established corporation or a startup? What about treasury management? Tune in to find out! - - T...

Binance is officially acquiring FTX. I never thought I'd type those words. What just happened? How did FTX go from a market-leading exchange to near insolvency? Is there contagion risk, and how will regulators respond? Tune in to find out! - -  Follow Vance: https://twitter.com/pythianism Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/im_manderson Follow Santi: https://twitter.com/santiagoroel Follow Mike: h...

Season 2 | Episode 1 In this episode of Bell Curve, we are joined by Hasu and Chris Ahn for a deep dive into DAOs and business-governance fit. We explore the differences between L1 and application governance, the challenges of achieving scalability and resiliency, why Hasu won't work for another DAO, learnings from traditional corporate governance, token distribution failures, over-indexing on com...

This episode of Bell Curve starts with the most contentious topic of the week: Elon's $8 Twitter Blue subscription fee. What are the implications? Could this be a turning point for subscription-based media? We then explore the carnage happening in the private markets, Alameda's precarious balance sheet, Coinbase's earnings (bullish), J.P. Morgan's first DeFi trade, Instagram NFTs and more! - - Tim...

Have DAOs failed? Can projects successfully democratize decision-making and capital allocation? What can DAOs learn from corporate governance? What is "business-governance fit" and how can we use this concept to design DAO frameworks? These are just a few of the questions we will explore in Season 2 of Bell Curve. In this Season 2 pilot episode, we describe our DAO thesis and give a sneak peek of...

In this episode of Bell Curve, we discuss the bloodshed happening in big tech and the likelihood of multiple bankruptcies in the Bitcoin mining market. What happens next, and who will make it out on top? We then discuss Apple's new NFT policy, Reddit onboarding 3M+ users to crypto, why VC-backed chains could be in trouble and the future of DeFi regulation.  - - Timestamps: (02:15) Snap & Facebook...

In this Season 1 finale, Mike and Jason review the fixed-rate lending thesis and discuss their biggest takeaways. Will debt be a major component of DAOs going forward? Is the infrastructure in place to support this? What major innovations do we see coming next? Tune in to find out! P.S. Get ready for Season 2, coming out on November 2nd! - - Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:43) Biggest Takeawa...

In this episode of Bell Curve, we discuss the state of VC markets and fundraising 101. What should founders look out for when fundraising? Why do terms often matter more than valuation, and how should founders think about anti-dilution? We answer these questions and more in this fundraising segment. We then explore the current macro environment, the Mango exploit and dangers of oracle pricing, the...

Season 1 | Episode 7 In this episode of Bell Curve, Jason and Dan are joined by Stani Kulechov & Robert Leshner, two of the best builders in crypto, to discuss DeFi's transformation and upcoming catalysts. We cover all of Season One's biggest topics, including CeFi's implosion, uncollateralized lending, fixed rates, duration debt, RWAs, staking yields and vertical app integration. We then cap the...

In this episode of Bell Curve's Weekly Roundup, we discuss one area of the market many aren’t paying attention to, private order flow (POF). As well as POF, Sushiswap announced a new head chef, MakerDAO plans to invest $500M in US treasurys and many VCs are looking to gaming for the next big opportunity in crypto? To hear all this and more, you’ll have to tune in! -- Timestamps:  (00:00) Introduct...

Season 1 | Episode 6 In this episode of Bell Curve, Jason and Mike are joined by Ben Forman, the founder of ParaFi, to discuss the demand for on-chain debt. We explore DeFi's capital markets, the massive opportunity of DAO-driven borrowing and the future of on-chain lending. What opportunities are created by programmable loans? Will DAOs issue debt to lower their cost of capital? Where will the de...

In this episode of Bell Curve's Weekly Roundup, the Blockworks Research team takes over the pod! We start with a debate on the implications of ATOM 2.0 and USDC launching on Cosmos. Is ATOM no longer a meme coin? Does everything revolve around MEV? What opportunities does native USDC unlock for the Cosmos ecosystem? We then discuss the feasibility of reversible on-chain transactions, the next NFT...

Season 1 | Episode 5 In this episode of Bell Curve, Jason and Mike are joined by Tristan Frizza (Zeta Markets) and Uddhav Marwaha (Friktion) to discuss the world of on-chain derivatives and liquidity. TradFi's derivatives market is magnitudes larger than spot, but on-chain derivatives are just getting started in crypto. Why does crypto need derivatives like options and perpetuals? What type of use...

In this episode of Bell Curve, we introduce the gaming mega thesis. Markets are an absolute mess, 99% of tokens won't hit their ATHs again, most old narratives will die, and the market is begging for a new catalyst. Could gaming be the catalyst we all need? Tune in to find out. We then discuss the newly proposed stablecoin regulation, the merits of protocol-specific stablecoins, the $160 Wintermut...

Season 1 | Episode 4 In this episode of Bell Curve, Jason and Mike are joined by Sid Powell (Maple Finance) and Teddy Woodward (Notional) to discuss the opportunity and complexity of on-chain uncollateralized lending. We also explore the need for hyper-efficient capital, the importance of fixed rates in a low-margin environment, financing RWAs, on-chain credit scores and more! - - Timestamps: (00:...