Bell Curve

Season 4 | Episode 1 Welcome to Season 4 of Bell Curve, where we will explore crypto's dark forest: MEV. Hasu is joining Mike as this season's cohost. If you don't know Hasu, he is the strategy lead at Flashbots, strategic advisor at Lido, research collaborator at Paradigm and a prolific strategist. In this episode, we introduce the topics and our thesis for the upcoming season. We discuss the MEV...

In this episode of Bell Curve, we discuss macro and the crazy decade ahead. The Fed is on the brink of stopping rate hikes, Balaji bet Bitcoin is going to $1M in 90 days, Credit Suisse collapsed, bonds are breaking and the market is a mess. What's coming next and where does the value lie in the chaos? It's all on this episode and it's spicy hot. We also discuss Coinbase's Wells Notice from the SEC...

In this episode of Bell Curve, we explore the economic fallout from the recent banking collapse, if Powell has pushed things too far and why the crypto bulls are back despite the market turmoil. We just entered a new paradigm shift, and crypto is primed to take advantage. We also cover the implications of USDC's depeg, how to evaluate protocol business models, Arbitrums $ARB airdrop and more! This...

This S3 finale covers the top takeaways from the last seven episodes, where we put the AppChain thesis to the test. Our thesis: Apps will leverage their proximity to customers to capture outsized value, mindshare and pricing power. Did the last seven episodes validate our thesis? Tune in for our conclusion and learnings on Aggregation Theory, product vs distribution, Cosmos' biggest weakness, scal...

Silvergate, crypto's primary bank, is closing shop. Silicon Valley Bank, tech's primary bank, is in a downward spiral. Two bank runs caused by low-interest rates, duration mismatches and FUD. How did this all start? What do these two banks have in common? And is this a systemic risk to the financial system? We answer all of these questions and more! If you make it to the deep end (the last ~20 min...

In this episode of Bell Curve, we explore how shared security will ignite the AppChain revolution. David Tse, Javed Khan and Aidan Salzmann discuss how AppChains require sovereignty, interoperability and security; Cosmos has solved sovereignty and interoperability, but security is still a moving target. Could Bitcoin be the security solution for Cosmos and the AppChain future? Tune in to find out!...

Crypto goes bankless. Silvergate - the beleaguered crypto bank - failed to file its 10K, was just ditched by Coinbase (and friends) for Signature bank, and its stock plunged 50% in the last 24 hours. We explain everything and debate what's next for crypto's off-chain payment rails! We also explore Noble (the Cosmos USDC issuance chain) ditching ICS, Jumps counter-exploit, Bitcoin's new narrative a...

Season 3 | Episode 6 In this episode of Bell Curve, Myles and Mike dive deep into today’s most innovative blockspace scaling techniques. They begin by discussing Optimism's recent "Superchain" rebrand and the similarities between the OP Stack and Cosmos SDK. We also discuss Coinbase's new L2, exploring its potential impact on general-purpose L2s and user demand. This leads to our ongoing thesis th...

This episode covers Coinbase's Base L2 announcement. We discuss why Base could be a game changer, how Coinbase will monetize Base, how Base impacts competing L2s and more! On-chain creativity for Coinbase and the ecosystem is at an all-time high - feeling bullish. We also explore the liquid staking token narrative, how the SEC's qualified custodian proposal impacts institutional adoption, OpenSea'...

Season 3 | Episode 5 In this episode of Bell Curve, Kalman Lajko and Preston Evans explain their thesis behind the optimal Rollapp stack. We start with the similarities and key differences between the Slush and Sovereign design thesis and how developers choose the optimal stack for their product. We then explore how Rollapp infrastructure projects can monetize, winner-take-all dynamics, the import...

This episode of Bell Curve explores Blur's airdrop and attack on OpenSea's market share. We discuss Blur's business strategy, BLUR token incentives, OpenSea's precarious position and more! We also cover the recent market rally, the SEC's qualified custodian proposal, tech's transition from growth to value and Flashbots' new MEV-Share product. Check out the Timestamps below for a full breakdown! -...

In this episode of Bell Curve, we are joined by Nitesh Nath, Xave Meegan and Maghnus Mareneck to discuss the economic driver of blockchains: MEV. Miner Extractable Value (MEV) is often called the most exciting and complex industry within crypto. Listen to this episode, and you'll catch the fever! In this episode, we discuss how AppChains can optimize MEV, payment for order flow (PFOF), MEV value a...

This episode of Bell Curve explores the implications of the SEC shutting down Kraken's US staking operations. Is the SEC coming for Coinbase next? What will be the next domino to fall? How will this impact DeFi? We discuss it all here. We also cover Genesis' bankruptcy agreement, Uniswap's governance drama, the rise of super apps, Google's $100B mistake and more! - - Timestamps: (00:00) Introducti...

Season 3 | Episode 3 In this episode of Bell Curve, Nick White and Dev Ojha join us to debate the pros and cons of applications owning the full tech stack vs leveraging a modular architecture. Applications that own their full tech stack can fully customize their chain (how they process MEV, encryption, etc) but is the overhead and cost worth it? In contrast, the modular ideology supports outsourci...

This episode of Bell Curve explores the crypto venture capital landscape. We discuss how VC funds are managed, what separates the best funds from the pack, why fund size is so important and more! This is your chance to see how the crypto VC business really works. We then discuss Bitcoin's NFT drama, why Bitcoin mining sucks and a little bit of politics. You won't want to miss this one! - - Timesta...

Season 3 | Episode 2 In this episode of Bell Curve, Zaki Manian and Sam Hart join us to discuss how Aggregation Theory applies to crypto protocols. We explore if applications can covert user relationships into sticky profits, crypto moats, blockspace as a commodity, the benefits of controlling the full tech stack and more! PS: don't miss the "Smiling Curve" section of the episode - it's an under-d...

This episode of Bell Curve explores the complex money trail from crypto's warped credit market. We know the players - 3AC, DCG, Genesis, Alameda and FTX - but how were these parties tied together and what exposure did they all (carelessly) take? We then discuss how ecosystem funds work, why we're bullish dYdX and Circle, the Blockworks Research degens, why we're pulling a boomer on social media, D...

Season 3 | Episode 1 In this episode of Bell Curve, Sunny Aggarwal and Dmitriy Berenzon join us to discuss the pros and cons of building a sovereign AppChain. AppChains enable developers and protocols to customize consensus, cryptography, MEV rules, fees and more. But is this customization worth the fragmentation, start-up costs, lack of tooling and other challenges AppChains face? Tune in to find...

This episode of Bell Curve explores the bear market rally and ETH’s monetary design. We start with our views on the recent market rally - have prices bottomed, or are we witnessing a dead cat bounce? What should we expect for 2023? We then discuss ETH's unique monetary policy, MakerDAO’s counterparty risk, Optimism vs Arbitrum, private fundraising, Su Zhu's false redemption arc and more! - - Times...

Season 3 | Pilot Layer One protocols have dominated the value capture narrative since Ethereum's inception, but a new narrative is forming: the AppChain Thesis. This thesis predicts crypto's top applications will not rent land and conform to the limitations of other platforms (e.g. Ethereum) but will launch their own independent chain. An AppChain. How should applications approach this decision? W...

This episode of Bell Curve explores the standoff between the Winklevoss twins (Gemini) and Barry Silber (Genesis/DCG). Is there a resolution or will both companies watch their equity slide to zero? We also discuss Solana's future, the bank run at Silvergate, Cosmos-native USDC, the LSD narrative and more! - - Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) Will Solana Survive? (08:58) Winklevoss Twins vs...

It's here, our 2023 predictions episode! We debate if the market's bottomed, CeFi vs DeFi market share dynamics, L2s vs a multichain future, Bitcoin's new narrative, the Wallet Wars, MEV as the primary business model and more. Sit back, relax and get ready for the team to drop some knowledge. - - Timestamps Introduction (00:00) Have Markets Bottomed? (02:20) What Projects Gain/Lose Market Share? (...

Season 2 | Finale In this episode of Bell Curve, we recap the best of Bell Curve Season 2. In Season 2 we explored the evolution of DAOs, asking what's worked, what needs to change, and where DAOs go from here. We break down every episode and our key learnings here. And don't miss the end, where we introduce the theme for Season 3! - - Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:17) S2 Recap, Our Biggest...

This episode of Bell Curve explores one of the most bullish signs during this bear: Visa is building on Starkware. Visa is the largest payment network in the world, and they just announced they are now building an automatic payments tool on Starkware's ZK-rollup technology. Tune in to find out why this is huge for the industry! We also cover Grayscale's GBTC disaster, how Yuga Labs is going all in...

In this episode of Bell Curve, Nick Johnson joins us to discuss his core insights from launching the ENS DAO. This is a behind-the-scenes look at when to launch a DAO, the challenges of decentralized management, token voting, DAO risks and building infrastructure as public goods. My favorite section? The challenges of token economic systems; Nick provides thoughtful insights I haven't heard anywhe...