Behind the Story

The Opportunity Party has made history by breaking into parliament. Three years ago, Qiulae Wong couldn’t have fathomed the idea of leading such a project. Her team broke out the champagne at their Eden Park celebration on Saturday night. Less than 48 hours later, it’s getting real. With the numbers still not locked and specials still to count, where is her head at, which options are on the table,...

As the campaign hours tick down, a pantheon of the Spinoff’s brightest gather at the roundtable to sum it all up. What were the most memorable moments, the characters, and the words of the campaign? Lyric Waiwiri-Smith, Hayden Donnell, Liam Rātana and Joel MacManus join Toby to revisit the highlights and lowlights, and square up for a Dragons’-Den-esque showdown to convince you which electorate ra...

The opinion polls are coming thick and fast in the final days of the 2026 NZ election campaign. But when two emerge at the same time delivering markedly different results, should we be sceptical about the story they tell? Murray Campbell of The Research Association of New Zealand joins Toby to discuss the varying methods for collecting opinion data, the processes by which that information is weigh...

The Māori electorates are always exciting but this time it’s really edge-of-the-seat. TVNZ Māori affairs correspondent Te Aniwa Hurihanganui joins Toby to walk through the electorate, and explain why Te Tai Tokerau is the pick of the bunch. Plus: the issues and personalities dominating the debate among Māori, and reflections on the kaupapa Māori debate, which Hurihanganui chaired with Scotty Morri...

With just over a week to the election, the Labour leader is in with a shot of becoming the first New Zealander since Keith Holyoake to serve non-consecutive terms as prime minister. In the latest of our leader interviews, he defends an approach criticised for its small target and lack of boldness, discusses the impact of overhang and legitimacy, and reveals how embracing the philosophy of stoicism...

In March 2024 Chlöe Swarbrick became co-leader of the Greens – right in the middle of what can only be described as a crisis year for the party. Today, they’ve jumped to around 15% in polling, and Swarbrick is under intense fire from Nicola Willis and the incumbent coalition. So how did they turn it around, do the Greens’ economic prescriptions hold up to scrutiny, and could they really work coher...

Across 12 years as Act leader, David Seymour has taken the party from 0.5% to two terms with a decent sized caucus and 18 months in the role of deputy prime minister. He goes into the 2026 election presenting as the stable leg of the coalition tripod, but how does that square with the scenes sparked by his treaty principles bill and this new focus on “one law for all”? In the latest of our leader...

At its fourth time of trying, the Opportunity Party is on track for something unprecedented: making it to parliament. And a massive part of that is down to its new leader: Qiulae Wong. What is she doing differently? How does the party, with its powerful board, work? Is it really a party of change? What does she say to the allegations from former members about a “toxic” culture? And has she even me...

Advertising campaigns are meant to capture the popular imagination, just not like this. A bank called Kiwi, a green sheep called Buck and giddy humans combined over recent days to create a strange fable for our times. Hayden Donnell joins Toby to walk us through the story that went from a pocket of the internet, via his post for the Spinoff (headline: “Kiwibank is desperately trying to stop people...

Ali Mau first appeared on New Zealand screens more than three decades ago. She went on to run, for five years, the #MeTooNZ project for Stuff. Last year she published No Words for This – an autobiography the Spinoff called “gripping and revelatory”. Last month, after years of work, Mau and lawyer Zoë Lawton pressed go on Tika: a globally pioneering online service for survivors of sexual harm that...

Winston Peters is contesting his 18th election this year; if you count a couple of by-elections, it’s his 20th campaign. He’s been giving ‘main character’ energy since he first entered politics with the National Party in 1978, and for more than three decades he’s been the talismanic figurehead of New Zealand First (who this year are polling consistently at or above 10%). Often cast in the role of...

Andrew Campbell was chief press secretary to prime minister Jacinda Ardern through crisis after crisis: the March 15 massacre in Christchurch, the Whakaari (White Island) disaster, and the Covid pandemic. On the publication of his new book, In the Room, Campbell joins Toby to talk through what they got right, what they got wrong, and why there is such an enduring depth of feeling about Ardern toda...

With the numbers of young people registered to vote at less than two-thirds, and an enrolment period coming to a close a fortnight earlier than recent elections, there is cause for serious concern, says Professor Andrew Geddis, electoral law expert from the University of Otago. We asked you for your questions about the voting process – the rules, the rorts, the practicalities, and here Geddis answ...

In a campaign that sometimes feels like wading through wet cement, James Nokise is attempting the Everest of stand-up challenges – finding the comedy in the election. He’s doing 33 shows from one end of the country to the other as One Night Rant, riffing on the headlines of the day and the questions the audiences ask. He joins Toby to tell us how it’s going so far. What do people think of their po...

The influence and ethics of political lobbying is under the spotlight in the 2026 campaign. What do lobbyists really do, what rules do they play by, and why has NZ failed time after time to do anything to tame the sinister stuff? Holly Bennett, founder and managing director of of Awhi, a kaupapa Māori government relations and communications firm in Auckland, joins Toby to talk it all through. Plus...

In the face of a slump in youth enrolment and a campaign that is leaving many people cold or curled up cringing, an army of independent outfits are prodding the cattle and driving engagement – some of them are telling us how to vote. Today we look at the enrolment insurgents including the Ellie Commission and On a Roll, and the tools designed to help you work out which party to vote for, such as P...

Three MPs, one party leader and two first-timers met last night at the Spinoff Great Mt Albert Debate. Toby Manhire is joined for a postmortem by Hayden Donnell and Lyric Waiwiri-Smith to assess the highs and lows from a fast-paced and fiery encounter featuring Labour candidate Helen White, who won the seat last time by 18 votes, Melissa Lee of National, the Greens’ Ricardo Menéndez March, Opportu...

It’s a milestone day for election 2026, with the pre-election fiscal update – Prefu, to you – staged in Wellington. Bernard Hickey emerges blinking from the lockup to assess the state of the accounts. The finance minister, Nicola Willis, has welcomed numbers showing the deficit this year and in years to come down by many billions of dollars. But how much of that is thanks to “fiscal drag”? Does it...

The host of Q+A is typically the Q guy, but here he does the A. Jack Tame sits down with Toby to explain how he’s prepping for next week’s big debate, why Christopher Luxon has avoided his interviews for more than two years, and what the National and Labour campaign launches tell us about the way this campaign will play out. Plus, in How Good, Tara Ward on Whakaata Māori’s This is Home. At Large w...

After a flurry of speculation, Nicky Hager last night launched Dirty Work: The Taxpayers’ Union and the New Zealand Hard Right, which he called a sequel of sorts to The Hollow Men of 2006 and Dirty Politics (2014).Hager did not approach those he wrote about for comment, in keeping with what he called his “operational approach, saying that books are “uniquely vulnerable” to tactics to prevent publi...

The government today published a review of its approach to funding events across NZ. That includes $40m for concerts, in a programme launched a year ago like a Robbie Williams chorus. Chris Schulz, writer of the Boiler Room newsletter and Spinoff contributor, joins Toby to talk through the goals of the fund, what is has achieved and where it fell short. Plus: Emma Gleason on the pick of the politi...

Economists and commentators across New Zealand have their calculators out and their fingers in the air trying to tell whether the recovery is really, finally on. The latest GDP numbers are modest, but at least have a plus in front of them, but what sits underneath the headlines? With an election campaign under way, an interest rate decision imminent, international bond markets jittering, and the c...

Estimates of the potential for artificial intelligence to make humanity extinct are everywhere, and not just in the sci-fi dystopias. Exiles and employees from the AI giants are sounding the alarm – even the AI bosses are pleading for a slowdown, to which Donald Trump hollers “hoax!” Tom Barraclough of Brainbox and Syncopate joins Toby to talk through the warnings, to explain why it’s all happenin...

It’s been a bumpy few years for the Māori language in New Zealand (or is that Aotearoa?). Liam Rātana, Ātea editor at the Spinoff Ātea, joins Toby to walk through the various measures pursued by the Act, NZ First and National parties – and what impact that has had on the broader tide. Plus: In How Good, Alex Casey gives her verdict on new NZ film Mum, I’m Alien Pregnant. At Large with Toby Manhire...

Opportunity is pitching itself as an alternative kingmaker to Winston Peters and New Zealand First for the 2026 election. But is the kingmaker scenario really that common across 10 MMP elections? Peter Dunne, who has seen the inside of many post-election negotiations, says not. He joins Toby to talk about the role smaller parties play in our elections, the challenge that awaits Opportunity as it h...