Behind the Markets Podcast

Show from 09/16/26 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel assess recent market data, including mixed signals from CPI and PPI, speculation about Q4 GDP being between 2% and 5%, and jobless claims falling below 200K. Professor Siegel also discusses the Fed’s direction amid political distractions and sees continued momentum for small caps amid easing mortgage spreads. (22:32) Jeremy is joined by...

Show from 09/01/26 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the strong jobs report, a surprising GDP revision from the Atlanta Fed, and the evolving political developments in Venezuela and Iran. The Professor also offers thoughts on Trump’s potential Fed chair picks, productivity growth, and AI's impact on markets. (17:09) Jeremy continues with Sam Rines to dive deeper into the geopolitic...

Show from 02/01/26 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the strong start to 2026, noting positive holiday spending, a dip in jobless claims, and the potential for a 3% Q4 GDP growth. Professor Siegel outlines three key market events to watch in January: the risk of a government shutdown, the Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs, and the selection of the new Fed chair. (12:34) Jeremy co...

Show from 12/19/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the final CPI report of the year and the broader inflation outlook. The Prof notes that shelter components are finally weighing on inflation, and expects a continued downward trend into 2026. He sees room for the Fed to cut rates if the economy weakens, and believes markets are well-positioned heading into the new year. (09:03) J...

Show from 12/12/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel reflect on the Fed's latest meeting and its dovish tone, noting signs of a market rotation beyond the "Magnificent Seven" stocks. Professor Siegel highlighted potential market risks from a Supreme Court tariff ruling and a possible government shutdown, while remaining optimistic on inflation and economic momentum heading into 2026. (11:2...

Show from 12/05/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel opened this week’s episode reflecting on the changing nature of Black Friday, ongoing consumer strength, and the outlook for interest rate cuts amid mixed economic data. The Professor discussed Kevin Hassett’s emergence as a top Fed Chair candidate, tech sector volatility, and competition in the AI space. (10:39) Jeremy continues with Sa...

Show from 11/28/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel opened this week’s episode reflecting on the changing nature of Black Friday, ongoing consumer strength, and the outlook for interest rate cuts amid mixed economic data. The Professor discussed Kevin Hassett’s emergence as a top Fed Chair candidate, tech sector volatility, and competition in the AI space. (10:39) Jeremy continues with Sa...

Show from 11/21/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel unpack the week's key market themes, focusing on Nvidia’s earnings volatility, jobless claims trends, and potential monetary policy shifts. The Professor highlights creeping continuing claims, waning private credit enthusiasm, and questions surrounding AI investment’s return on capital. (16:07) Jeremy continues with Sam and Jeff to asses...

Show from 11/14/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the market reaction to the government shutdown, the Fed's hawkish stance, and AI-driven market surges. The Professor critiques the Fed’s focus on inflation drivers like insurance rates, revisits debates on equity-risk premiums at a recent CFA Society event, and addresses the long-term outlook for stocks versus bonds. (15:18) Jere...

Show from 11/07/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss conflicting jobs data amid the government shutdown, political fallout from the recent elections, and the implications of potential Supreme Court rulings on tariffs. The Professor warns about the possible economic drag from the shutdown during the holiday season and offers his market perspective, noting AI investment strength and...

Show from 10/31/25 Jeremy is joined by Sam Rines, Jeff Weniger, and Chris Gannatti, who analyze big tech earnings from Amazon, Meta, and others, emphasizing the early stages of the AI investment boom. The group discusses the infrastructure demands of data centers, energy policy challenges, and geopolitical developments following Trump’s Asia tour. They close by exploring how companies beyond tech...

Are We Too Optimistic? by Behind the Markets

Show from 10/17/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discussed recent signs of credit stress and how markets are reacting to pressures in private credit. Professor Siegel emphasized that while some private credit deals may go bad, there is no broader systemic risk, citing strong earnings from major banks as evidence. He maintained that the bull market remains intact and projected a 25-basi...

Show from 10/10/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the market’s resilience amid a continued government shutdown, emphasizing the positive momentum driven by AI and the broader economic environment. Professor Siegel warns about the potential for negative consumer sentiment if the shutdown lingers and points to recent data and global central bank comparisons to support the case for...

Show from 10/03/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest market conditions, highlighting the weakness in the ADP jobs report, stable jobless claims, and a slight decline in consumer confidence. Professor Siegel emphasizes that while the economic data points to some softening, there is no indication of a sharp downturn. He points to this quarter as a critical test for consume...

Show from 09/26/25 Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel review the week’s key economic developments, focusing first on inflation metrics with the PCE deflator and personal income/spending data matching expectations. Professor Siegel emphasizes the significance of stronger-than-expected durable goods orders and a narrowed trade deficit, which have led to upgraded Q3 GDP forecasts from major banks....

Show from 09/19/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz is joined live from Mallorca by Pierre Debru, Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe, to explore shifting investor sentiment across the continent. Pierre discusses how European investors are reallocating away from the US and toward domestic equities and thematics like defense, nuclear, and rare earths, fueled in part by a weaker dollar. He outlines the renewe...

Show from 09/12/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel analyze the recent inflation data, highlighting the implications for next week’s pivotal Fed meeting. The Professor suggests a 25-basis-point rate cut is likely, but notes that a weak retail sales report could justify a 50-basis-point move. He emphasizes the importance of the September dot plot in gauging Fed sentiment and explores the l...

Show from 09/05/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest job report, which showed weaker-than-expected numbers, particularly in manufacturing and healthcare. The Professor highlights that while the household survey showed a gain, it's too volatile to weigh heavily. He emphasizes that the labor market is softening, which aligns with the bond market's pricing-in of rate cuts a...

Show from 09/01/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz travels across Indiana with Brandon Zick, CIO of Ceres Partners, as they explore farmland investments following WisdomTree’s acquisition announcement of Ceres. Brandon and Jeremy dive into the fundamentals of farmland investing, including its inflation-hedging characteristics, active property sourcing strategies, and the portfolio's strong historical returns...

Show from 08/29/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the PCE inflation data coming in exactly as expected, a surprising widening in the July trade deficit, and the implications of upcoming employment data on the Fed's decision-making. The Prof suggests a 25 basis point cut is likely unless job numbers are unexpectedly weak. (14:22) Jeremy is joined by Sean Avory, CIO of Avory Co, w...

Show from 08/22/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel react to Powell’s dovish shift in tone, with the Professor characterizing it as a clear pivot towards rate cuts. Siegel emphasizes that inflationary pressures driven by tariffs are likely to be treated as one-time increases and ignored by the Fed, while the labor market becomes the primary focus going forward. He outlines a forecast of 7...

Show from 08/15/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel unpacked a busy week of economic news, starting with an analysis of the CPI and PPI data. The Professor highlighted how headline inflation may appear elevated due to one-off components like portfolio management fees but emphasized that key metrics feeding into the Fed’s preferred PCE deflator remained tame. He also reiterated his longsta...

Show from 08/08/25 Host Chris Gannatti and Professor Siegel discuss Trump’s recent Fed nominations, labor market weakness, and the likelihood of a September rate cut. The Professor notes seasonal market risks in late August, continued strength in AI-driven tech earnings, and trade tensions impacting India, which he views as a potential buying opportunity. He also highlights his new article on the...

Show from 08/01/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel dive into market sentiment following Powell's recent remarks. The Professor discusses the Fed's hawkish stance, Powell's views on the neutral rate, and the implications of inflation driven by tariffs. He emphasizes concern over potential delays in Fed action and critiques Powell's consistency in messaging. (29:20) Jeremy continues the sh...