At the Water's Edge

Joe Kent spent 21 years in Army Special Forces and the CIA before becoming President Trump's Director of the National Counterterrorism Center — then walked away from it, resigning in protest over the war with Iran. This week I sit down with him to talk about what he saw from inside the administration in the weeks before he quit, why he believes Israel drove the decision to strike, and what it actu...

Just days after President Trump's Fourth of July weekend, Iran held a massive funeral for its slain leadership — and millions turned out. In this week's installment of our ongoing series on the war with Iran, Robert Pape, Professor at the University of Chicago and one of the leading scholars on coercion, airpower, and political violence, argues that the funeral marks a turning point that has nothi...

This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran in real time. After new strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. bombing inside Iran, Iranian missile attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, and renewed talk of a ceasefire, Pape argues that the conflict is not ending....

In the final episode of our PTSD series, Scott speaks with Dr. Jessica Maples Keller of Emory University about the future of psychedelic-assisted therapy for PTSD.Emory has been studying MDMA and psilocybin in a clinical setting, with a focus on how these treatments might enhance evidence-based care like prolonged exposure therapy. Dr. Maples Keller explains how clinical trials are designed, why S...

This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. The U.S. and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding. But according to Pape, that does not mean the war is over. Instead, the battlefield may be shifting to the negotiations themselves. Pape argues that while the U.S. and financial marke...

Why Veterans Are Going Overseas for Psychedelics In part two of our PTSD series, Scott speaks with Jesse Gould, founder of the Heroic Hearts Project and a former Army Ranger from the 75th Ranger Regiment, about why some veterans are seeking psychedelic-assisted treatment outside the traditional U.S. medical system. Jesse shares his own story of leaving the military, struggling with PTSD, anxiety,...

This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. Reports suggest the U.S. and Iran may be moving toward a deal. But Pape argues that a signing ceremony, memorandum, or public claim of victory does not necessarily mean the war is ending. For frontline U.S. forces in CENTCOM and the Gulf, the r...

Surviving war is only the beginning for many veterans. In Part 1 of this series on post-traumatic stress disorder, At the Water’s Edge examines what PTSD is, why it is so often misunderstood, why many veterans wait years before receiving care, and what effective treatment can look like. This episode features three voices from Wounded Warrior Project: Dr. Erin Fletcher, Director of Warrior Care Net...

This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. After 100 days of war, Pape argues that the conflict is no longer in its opening phase — but it is nowhere near over. Instead, the war has entered what he calls the middle of the escalation trap: a grinding phase where weeks of boredom can be p...

President Trump thought Iran would collapse quickly. According to Dr. Trita Parsi, that assumption may be one of the central miscalculations that pulled the United States deeper into war. In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott Kelly speaks with Dr. Trita Parsi, co-founder and Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, about the war with Iran, the limits of...

This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. After two weeks of ceasefire claims, strikes, and renewed negotiations, Pape argues that the conflict is not moving toward real stability. Instead, the U.S. and Iran may be entering what he calls a new era of instability. Even if a memorandum o...

Former NASA Administrator and Secretary of the Navy Sean O’Keefe returns to At the Water’s Edge for a conversation about American power, strategy, space, war, and national identity. At a moment when the United States is confronting conflict with Iran while also advancing the Artemis program, O’Keefe explores a deeper question: what actually makes America powerful? Drawing on decades of leadership...

The war with Iran may be more than another crisis in the Middle East. In this latest installment of The Escalation Trap, Robert Pape argues that the conflict is becoming a hinge event — almost the inverse of the 1991 Gulf War. Instead of demonstrating American military dominance, this war may be revealing the limits of U.S. power when tactical military strength no longer produces strategic outcome...

This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. Pape argues that the conflict has now entered the true danger zone. The negotiation track, he says, may be effectively dead for weeks or months — not because talks are impossible, but because the core issues at stake are zero-sum. Unlike a real...

Former State Department senior advisor and National Security Council official Negah Angha joins At the Water’s Edge to discuss what the war with Iran reveals about American strategy, alliances, and decision-making. Angha explains how major national security decisions are supposed to move through the U.S. government, why inconsistent objectives and poor consultation with allies can weaken American...

This is Part 7 of The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. This week, the Trump administration announced Project Freedom, an effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by escorting ships through the waterway. At the same time, Iran is working with Pakistan and Turkey to expand overland trade routes, Hezbollah has incre...

Are the wars in Ukraine and Iran separate conflicts—or part of something larger? In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott sits down with Paul Poast, Associate Professor at the University of Chicago, to unpack his argument that we may already be living in a new era of “world war.” Rather than a 20th-century style global conflict, Poast explains how today’s wars can be defined by multiple inter...

This is Part 6 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) tracking the Iran conflict in real time. Over the past week, we saw renewed efforts to restart negotiations—including a Pakistan-backed diplomatic push—but no meaningful progress. Ceasefires continue to be announced and collapse just as quickly. At the same time, something more significant may be taking shape beneath the...

Drones are already reshaping modern warfare—from Ukraine to the Red Sea to the Strait of Hormuz. In this episode, Scott sits down with U.S. Army Special Forces Major John Kowalski to break down what that means for the future of conflict—and whether America is ready for it. Drawing on real-world examples from Ukraine, Iranian-backed proxy forces, and conflicts around the globe, Kowalski argues that...

This is Part 5 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) analyzing the Iran conflict in real time. Over the past week, multiple ceasefires were announced—and just as quickly fell apart. At the same time, the U.S. and Iran have continued escalating pressure through a de facto blockade dynamic around the Strait of Hormuz. But the most important takeaway from this conversation is...

What happens if Iran loses control of its global network of proxy groups? In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott sits down with Dr. Colin P. Clarke, Executive Director of the Soufan Center, to break down how terrorism is evolving—and why the next phase may be more dangerous than the last. They explore Iran’s strategy of using proxy organizations like Hezbollah and the Houthis, and why disma...

This is Part 4 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) tracking the Iran conflict in real time. Over the past week, several developments point to a deeper shift in the trajectory of the war: A ceasefire briefly emerged—then collapsed within 24 hours The U.S. and Iran moved toward a full blockade dynamic in the Strait of Hormuz Conflicting signals from the Trump administration...

For years, many in Washington have assumed that pressure, protests, or targeted strikes could trigger regime change in Iran. But what if those assumptions are fundamentally wrong? In this episode, Scott sits down with Arash Azizi, a writer and historian focused on Iranian politics, to break down what’s actually happening inside Iran right now—beyond the headlines. They discuss why the Iranian regi...

This is Part 3 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) analyzing the escalation dynamics of the Iran conflict in real time. Over the past week, several developments have shifted the trajectory of the war: U.S. ground forces entered Iran for the first time in a limited rescue operation Continued strikes on energy infrastructure across the region Increasing pressure around the...

Most people think AI is ready for modern warfare. It’s not. In this episode, I sit down with Tyler Saltsman, Founder and CEO of EdgeRunner AI, to break down what artificial intelligence can actually do on the battlefield—and where it falls short. Tyler is building domain-specific AI models designed to operate directly on-device, enabling warfighters to make better decisions in real time without re...