Arms Control Wonk

The US-Iran MOU is humiliating, it was signed at Versailles, and its still not on any government website.  In fact, if you try a .gov keyword search for Iran's commitment to not build nuclear weapons, the top result is Obama's 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.  Aaron and Jeffrey work through why Trump was right to quit while he was behind, why continuing the fight wouldn't have changed a si...

Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to discuss the Trump administration's review of nuclear strategy, the case for uploading, and what it all means for the looming arms race. Support us over at  Patreon.com/acwpodcast !

Russia tested the RS-28 Sarmat heavy ICBM, which will replace the SS-18/RS-36M Satan.   What's it for?  Aaron and Jeffrey talk about the role of heavy ICBMs, the foundational assumption for counterforce, the rise of orbital bombardment systems (FOBS!!!!!!!!), the collapse of the ABM Treaty and the future of space-based interceptors. Support us over at  Patreon.com/acwpodcast !

It's been a long time, we shouldnt have left you, but we got a dope pod to step too. Or at least we think so. After a brief hiatus, Aaron and Jeffrey return to discuss the latest from the Iran war and what it means for arms control. It ends with Jeffrey geeking out on Dark Eagle, the missile CENTCOM wants and Jeffrey is obsessed with   Support us over at  Patreon.com/acwpodcast !

U.S. Undersecretary of State Tom DiNanno accused China of conducting decoupled, low-yield nuclear tests including on June 22, 2020.  Aaron and Jeffrey talk about seismic monitoring of nuclear tests, the role of hydronuclear testing, and what might be going on.    Support us over at  Patreon.com/acwpodcast !

The New START treaty has expired leaving the US and Russia without a bilateral limit on offensive strategic arms for the first time in decades. There is reportedly a handshake deal not to do anything drastic for six months while the two sides talk about the outlines of a future deal, but there seems to be little agreement about what such a deal might look like.  Aaron and Jeffrey discuss the end o...

Russia has deployed the Oreshnik system in Belarus and then, from Russia, conducted another Oreshnik test.  Jefffrey and Aaron discuss how the open source team found the deployment site in Belarus before Russia announced it, what they think Oreshnik is, and how Russia managed to violate two arms control treaties with one missile.   Support us over at  Patreon.com/acwpodcast !

Jeffrey and Scott watched the new Kathryn Bigelow movie "House of Dynamite" and they both have  opinions . The crew talks through both the artistic choices as well as the wonky details. "House of Dynamite" is an interesting take on missile defense and decisionmaking that doesn't quite commit enough to any philosophical or strategic camp, but ultimately may be the lens through which a lot of non-wo...

Donald Trump directed "the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis" with other countries.  The Department of War doesn't test nuclear weapons, the Department of Energy does all the time in lots of different ways.  Some people worried this meant a return to explosive testing, others seemed to think it was about delivery systems.  Subsequent statements by the Vice Pr...

Alex Ward and others at the Wall Street Journal reported on the details of a Pentagon review process that has halted Ukraine's ability to conduct long-range strikes into Russia with ATACMs, Storm Shadow and other systems that need US targeting data. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about what we already knew, what we didn't, and what it all mean. Hint: Allies should stand up their own targeting capabilities...

The Slack channel noticed that Russia was gearing up to test the SSC-X-9 Skyfall nuclear-powered cruise missile (aka Burevestnik), which Jeffrey and co. confirmed with satellite images. Reuters picked it up, noting how awkward all this was coming, as it did, just as Putin flew to Alaska to meet with Donald Trump. Aaron and Jeffrey talk about the OSINT and the political implications. Watch the vide...

Aaron and Jeffrey finally deconflict their schedules to talk about the outcome of the Israeli-Iranian war, Iran's pathway back to the bomb, and why they're both irritated with the "fix it or nix it crowd." Support us over at  Patreon.com/acwpodcast !

Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to discuss the latest new from Iran, where Israel has been launching strike on leadership, nuclear, and missile targets. Support us over at  Patreon.com/acwpodcast !

In what seems like clockwork, India and Pakistan fought an "almost war" recently, prompting concerns about the risk of nuclear war. Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to talk about the crisis, the meaning of deterrence, and how it worked during this recent flare up.   Watch the video pod over on  YouTube ! Support us over at  Patreon.com/acwpodcast !

The Trump administration appears to be willing to return to the JCPOA, so long as you do not call it the JCPOA. Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to discuss the latest back and forth with Iran and what's at stake with the return to nuclear negotiations. Watch the video pod over on  YouTube! Support us over at  Patreon.com/acwpodcast !

Aaron and  Jeffrey  sat down for their first video podcast to discuss the cost of Brilliant Swarm, the name du moment of Brilliant Pebbles, aka space based missile defense.  Watch the video pod over on  YouTube! Support us over at  Patreon.com/acwpodcast !

Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to discuss the latest news about anti-satellite warfare and why bumping and grinding in the cosmos is back en vogue.   Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Donald Tusk — not the indulgent follow up to the perfect Fleetwood Mac Album Rumours — mused recently about the future of deterrence in Europe. The discussion reminds of the challenges of extended deterrence, the oh so very French debate about nuclear weapons and European security, and the vibe shift that has raised questions about the future US security guarantee. Links of Note: Building a Euro D...

Russia launched an experimental, offensive missile into Ukraine, aimed at the PA Pivdenmash (former Yuzhmash) factory. This is a new world of missile combat, as this looks to be the first use of an IRBM (though not at IRBM ranges) and possibly MIRV (though conventional!) in combat.  Jeffrey and Aaron talk about Russia's new Oreshnik missile, what it is, its relationship to the RS-26 Rubezh IRBM/IC...

The legendary Fred Kaplan joins Jeffrey to talk about his brand new novel, A Capital Calamity.  Fred and Jeffrey talk through the Fred's experiences in nuclear strategy and the influences on his new novel, A Capital Calamity, from JFK's EXCOMM tapes, the MX basing debate, and the Jane Austen meets Dr. Strangelove comedy of DC manners and etiquette.  Catch one of Fred's upcoming book readings for A...

An absolutely  massive mobile ballistic missile was paraded in North.... ...wait sorry.... South Korea. Force of habit.    Decker joins Jeffrey to talk about the absolute unit that the ROK just showed off. But don't worry, it's just an "SRBM with an  eight ton warhead, " nothing to see here. The team talks about messaging, move/countermoves on the Korean Peninsula, and who actually started this da...

China tested an ICBM deep into the Pacific Ocean, instead of short-shooting it into PRC deserts.  Decker Eveleth joins Jeffrey to talk about why this is a fascinating change in behavior for the PLA Rocket Force and PRC in general. China has only ever done this twice before, both over 40 years ago, back in 1980. Decker and Jeffrey talk about the internally signalling mechanisms, the issues with cor...

Iran just launched what may be the largest single missile raid in history, and Israel claims no Israeli deaths. While we're still very early in the news cycle, Jeffrey and Aaron start picking apart the information available to look at what we can learn about the state of the Iranian offensive missile arsenal, weight what Iran's options for next steps are, and dive into the internal nuclear politic...

Friend of the Pod Decker Eveleth found the Burevestnik deployment site, it seems! Decker, of the CNA Corporation, has tracked down what appears to be the deployment site of the 9M730 Burevestnik, aka the SSC-X-9 Skyfall, using Planet Labs satellite imagery. It appears to be about 300 miles north of Mosco, near a national-level nuclear storage facility.  Decker and Jeffrey talk through Decker's met...

Jeffrey and his team have been OSINT'ing the heck out of the deployment of the Typhon Strategic Mid-Range Fires (SMRF) ((Typhon Smurf?)) to the Philippines, and tracked down the airport and deployment zone. Recently the U.S. Army deployed the new Typhon SMRF system to the Philippines as part of an exercise, raising the ire of both the Russian and Chinese governments. The Army seemed to try and kee...