Arlan Suderman: Commodity Outlook

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why wheat markets rallied ahead of USDA's report—and why renewed conflict in the Black Sea may be the bigger story for commodity markets. In this July 10 update, Arlan covers: Why wheat prices surged despite a generally favorable U.S. weather outlook How Ukraine's attacks in the Sea of Azov are disrupting Russian exports Why the Kerch...

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz aren't triggering panic in commodity markets—and what traders should be watching instead. In this July 9 update, Arlan covers: Why Iran's latest attacks on commercial ships have disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz How the U.S. response is changing the security outlook in the regio...

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, looks back on a difficult month for commodity markets and explains the three key factors that will determine where grain and oilseed prices go next. In this June 26 update, Arlan covers: Why 23 of 27 major commodities declined during June How changing market sentiment has shifted money out of commodities Why the Strait of Hormuz remains a wild...

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why grain and oilseed markets found support this week and what recent soybean sales may reveal about global demand. In this June 17 update, Arlan covers: Why grain and oilseed markets rebounded after heavy selling pressure The latest rumors surrounding potential Chinese soybean purchases What USDA's flash soybean sale announcement cou...

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the newly announced Iran agreement and explains why commodity markets may be underestimating the long-term risks facing energy, fertilizer, and agricultural markets. In this June 15 update, Arlan covers: What the Iran agreement actually does — and does not — accomplish Why equity markets are rallying while commodities sell off The...

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the key takeaways from USDA's June WASDE report and explains why a potential Iran ceasefire may not eliminate commodity market risk anytime soon. In this June 12 update, Arlan covers: What mattered most in USDA's June WASDE report Why soybean crush demand continues to exceed expectations The outlook for corn exports and ethanol dem...

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, previews the June WASDE report and explains why grain and oilseed markets may be at a critical turning point after weeks of heavy fund liquidation. In this June 10 update, Arlan covers: What to expect from USDA's June WASDE report Why significant changes to corn and soybean yields are unlikely The surprising deterioration in winter wheat crop...

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, takes a deep dive into the U.S. soybean balance sheet and explains why China's purchasing decisions may have a bigger impact on soybean prices than weather this summer. In this June 3 update, Arlan covers: Why soybean futures have come under pressure despite strong crush demand What current crop ratings are signaling about the 2026 soybean cro...

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the latest developments in the Middle East after President Trump released what appears to be a final set of demands for Iran — and explains why commodity markets reacted immediately. In this May 29 update, Arlan covers: Whether Trump's latest statement represents a peace agreement or an ultimatum Why crude oil, grain, and oilseed m...

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down why commodity markets sold off sharply on optimism surrounding Iran negotiations, and why significant risks may still remain ahead. In this May 26 update, Arlan covers: Why markets reacted to reports that the U.S. and Iran are “95%” toward a deal The critical final issues still preventing a true agreement Why the Strait of Hormuz r...

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the latest White House announcement on U.S.-China trade negotiations — and why grain and oilseed markets reacted sharply higher to start the week. In this May 18 update, Arlan covers: What the alleged new China ag purchase agreement includes Why soybean markets rallied overnight The significance of the proposed $17B in additional U...

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why grain and oilseed markets are under pressure despite bullish supply fundamentals, tightening global inventories, and ongoing inflation concerns. In this May 15 update, Arlan covers: - Why investor money flow and market sentiment are overriding traditional supply-and-demand fundamentals - How computerized trading and headline-drive...

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, outlines why this is a pivotal week for commodities — with the Iran conflict, U.S.–China trade negotiations, and the USDA WASDE report all converging to drive market direction. In this May 11 update, Arlan covers: Why the ongoing Iran conflict continues to tighten global energy and fertilizer supplies How disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz ar...

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down signs that the Iran conflict may be nearing an end — and why that does not mean the market risk is over. In this April 17 update, Arlan covers: Why markets are reacting to signs the war may be winding down What the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could mean for oil and shipping flows Why crude oil, grain, and oilseed markets are...

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the weekend developments in Iran and what the latest U.S. blockade move could mean for commodity markets. In this update, Arlan covers: Why the U.S. blockade marks a major escalation in the Iran conflict What a shutdown of Iranian shipping could mean for oil and fertilizer flows Why corn and wheat prices are trading above pure supp...

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why the next 36 hours could be critical for grain, energy, and fertilizer markets. In this April 6 update, Arlan covers: Why the Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest near-term market driver How a ceasefire or de-escalation could remove some war premium from commodity markets Why further escalation could push energy and fertilizer pric...

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the latest USDA quarterly grain stocks report and explains what is really driving the grain and oilseed markets right now. In this April 1 update, Arlan covers: How war headlines influenced grain and oilseed buying What the March 1 USDA grain stocks data says about corn, soybeans, and wheat Why corn stocks came in lower than expect...

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down why the EPA’s final biofuels rule could be a major demand driver for feedstocks and ag markets. In this March 30 update, Arlan covers: Why the new EPA biofuels guidelines look bullish for soy oil and feedstock demand What the final renewable volume obligations mean for renewable diesel How energy shortages and the Strait of Hormuz...

Geopolitical risk just escalated — and energy and agriculture markets are reacting. Following a coordinated U.S.–Israel strike on Iran, crude oil prices surged as tanker traffic slowed through the Strait of Hormuz — the critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of global crude exports. StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down what this means for: • Crude oil prices and global energy...

Are we witnessing a major shift in China’s agricultural trade policy? In today’s market update, Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the overnight headlines following President Trump’s call with China’s President Xi — and the 50‑cent surge in soybean futures that followed. In this episode, Arlan covers: Trump’s request for China to buy an additional 8 million metric t...

StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down the new 45Z clean fuel production credit and why carbon intensity (CI) scores now decide value. He details the post‑2025 North America‑only feedstock rule, high-risk status for imported used cooking oil (UCO), and the removal of ILUC—plus what he’s watching next from the EPA on RVOs. What’s inside: 45Z is out: Technology‑neutral, CI‑dri...

In today’s Update From the Trading Floor, Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down a major geopolitical development in China, a sweeping purge inside the Central Military Commission, and what it means for U.S. soybean exports, global commodity flows, and ongoing U.S.–China trade negotiations. Arlan explores: China's military leadership purge and why top generals close to...

President Trump addressed global leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, clarifying that the United States will not invade Greenland—a statement that helped ease market volatility after recent geopolitical fears rattled equities and commodities. In this morning update from the trading floor, Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down: Why Greenland matters strategical...

Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down how rare earth mineral supply chains, geopolitical strategy, and upcoming farm aid negotiations are influencing market sentiment. Arlan explains new White House findings on U.S. dependence on foreign processing, China’s rare earth export restrictions, and why Venezuela’s mineral resources add another layer to global leverage. He also highlight...

Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down how policy decisions, credit-market dynamics, and rising geopolitical tension are shaping commodity markets as the week begins. Coming to you from the trading floor, Arlan discusses renewed calls to cap consumer borrowing rates, why lower credit-card interest may stimulate spending in the short term but increase long‑term economic risk, and ho...