Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief

Buying pressure is once again outweighing selling pressure at the lows, repeating the February pattern, while price is holding near the Cost Basis of the freshest holders. The logic of this brief is simple: compressed selling pressure and price positioning in the lower part of the cohort range point to an accumulation zone.

This brief explains why initiative in futures still remains with sellers despite a local rebound attempt. Cumulative buy delta is shrinking quickly, and any spike in demand is immediately absorbed. That confirms local weakness in buyer flow.

A brief on how stablecoin inflows - the main fuel of the crypto market - have dried up over the past two months. The logic is simple: without fresh dollar liquidity, BTC rebounds stay short-lived and downside pressure remains in place.

The first major net BTC sale by Strategy in several years and the futures market's reaction to the announcement. The sale was driven by obligations, not by a change in strategy. Price held up, but derivatives positioning cooled noticeably.

The futures market has turned toward greater willingness to take risk: the gap between futures and spot has moved back into positive territory, and the positioning index has shifted back above zero.

This brief covers the first BUY signal in a long time from Net UTXO Supply Ratio and whether the Supply in Loss metric confirms the start of the final phase of capitulation. The logic is simple: the fast indicator has already moved into the reversal zone, while the slower one still needs more time to reach the threshold.

A brief on why the current bounce looks fragile. The logic is simple: buyers are pressing the market aggressively, but without growth in open interest the move has no fuel for a sustainable breakout.

The current drawdown looks heavier than February's: exchange inflows have increased, while SOPR below 1.0 shows that the market is realizing losses on average. Until both metrics turn, any recovery remains unconfirmed.

A brief on BTC approaching the LTH cost basis and why long-term holder behavior points to the market nearing the final phase of the bear cycle.

A brief on how demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs has completely dried up and turned into a sustained outflow. As long as momentum stays near historical lows, the market has no institutional fuel for an upside reversal.

Net realized P/L is persistently negative, which means the market is systematically locking in losses. But the cost basis of most holder cohorts is still below the current price, so for now this looks like a controlled decline rather than a full capitulation.

This brief is about how MSTR's deep drawdown and Strategy's shift from aggressive buying to defense are changing the role of the largest corporate BTC buyer. The logic is simple: the longer this proxy stock trades deeply underwater, the higher the risk that the burden of dividends and debt will eventually reach Bitcoin itself.

A brief on how bullish demand has run out and momentum is shifting to sellers: Net Taker has pulled back to zero, while long positions dominate liquidations.

This brief is about short-term holders moving into loss while capital inside the STH group is shrinking sharply. At the same time, the LTH group shows almost no drawdown. The logic is simple: the pain is real, but it is concentrated in weak hands. The market structure does not yet look like a full cycle-wide capitulation.

Price is compressing toward Adjusted Realized Price as the main support zone, while the change in new capital inflow has turned negative. For now, the market is being held by old hands, not fresh demand.

This brief is about the Fed's hawkish pause and how differently assets reacted: gold was bought after the drop, while Bitcoin remained under pressure. The logic of the issue is BTC's relative weakness as a signal of a shift toward risk-off.

This brief is about the second wave of capitulation and why the fading strength of the selloff matters more than the panic itself. The logic is simple: if the second wave of losses is weaker than the first, it more often points to seller exhaustion.

This brief is about how holder conditions and fundamental valuation have converged in the same zone. Supply moved deeply underwater around $60K, while CVDD shows where the market's structural bottom level sits.

The bounce off $60K is being driven by returning buyers, not a short squeeze. Taker Buy Sell Ratio closed above 1.0 in 8 of the last 10 days, while Funding Rate stayed positive for 10 straight days from June 6 to June 15. That means the rally is being supported by aggressive demand, but at the same time it shows that long leverage is starting to build up again.

This brief is about the reversal in flows from May to the present. The logic is simple: BTC inflows to exchanges increase supply pressure, while stablecoin outflows deprive the market of fuel for a rebound.

Miner metrics have entered a stress zone comparable to post-halving drawdowns, but the market has not yet reached a full-scale capitulation on the scale of 2018 and 2022. The key question is whether the Puell 30DMA will hold above 0.50, or whether the market will shift into survival mode.

Capital is leaving the Bitcoin network, and participant behavior confirms a capitulation regime - sales are being made at a loss. This brief examines how close the current stress is to the March extremes and what needs to happen for the regime to change.

For 22 straight days, the market has been realizing net losses. But MVRV Z has already cooled to 0.32, versus a historical average of 1.71. Stress is there. Overheating is gone. What this means for Bitcoin right now, I break down in Morning Brief #187.

Bitcoin bounced 3.7% off $60K, but Open Interest fell 6% with positive funding - a short-covering rebound, not new leverage. Watch OI for confirmation.

Bitcoin is testing the February low, while the current net realized loss of -$7B is already heavier than it was directly at the February price low. At the same time, it is still below the peak of winter capitulation at -$14B. The key observation - this time, seller pressure is building as price approaches the bottom, rather than fading before it.