Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief

Bitcoin futures buying pressure hit 4.9, the highest since August, as open interest rose 9K BTC in 24h. The key level for new longs is $83K.

Bitcoin trades 14% above the short-term holder cost basis (realized price) at $73.7K, while the long-term holder cost basis falls to $48.8K.

Bitcoin supply in profit hit its highest level since January and now stands at 72%, while price momentum has fallen to zero at $83K.

Bitcoin realized 19% less profit than at the August peak despite a higher price. STH SOPR fell to 1.01 as short-term holder profit narrows.

Bitcoin exchange outflows averaged 16.1K BTC per day, the strongest weekly pace since October 2025, as futures positioning slips below zero.

Bitget hacked for $351M, withdrawals paused. On-chain data shows BTC kept leaving exchanges after the hack, with no panic inflows.

Bitcoin is 37% above long-term holders' cost basis as MVRV recovers from breakeven. Compare today's drawdown to past bull market corrections.

Bitcoin reclaims the 365D moving average at $80.5K for the first time since November 2025. Trend Pulse flips to bull mode. Key levels to watch.

Bitcoin long-term holder supply fell 21.7K BTC in 30 days vs 105.9K in late August. LTH SOPR slipped to 0.994 as BTC rose to $81.2K.

Bitcoin recovered to $77.4K as Taker Order Pressure flipped to +0.86 and short liquidations dominated at +54.52. Is the buying edge real?

Bitcoin at $76.2K vs STH realized price $71.3K: short-term holder profit cushion fell from 10% to 7% in a week. Exchange inflow P/L nears zero.

Markets see a Fed rate hike as near-certain. History shows stocks often dip after a first hike. What that means for the S&P 500 and Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Bollinger Band width sits at 4.81%, below 6% for six days. Price holds $76.6K-$80.4K as taker flow turns neutral. No clear edge yet.

Bitcoin holds near $77K despite rising derivatives pressure and a persistent Coinbase discount. On-chain read on whether buyers can confirm.

Bitcoin supply in profit hit 69% with a +41% 90-day change, one of the fastest on record. Why the speed shows scale, not a regime shift.

Bitcoin short-term holders sent 549K BTC to exchanges while STH-SOPR stayed above break-even. Price held most gains despite selling.

Bitcoin long-term holders sold 98.5K BTC since August as profit-taking resumed. Supply is stabilizing, but selling risk still remains.

Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $78.7K in two days as taker order pressure turned negative and open interest rose, a seller-driven leverage build-up.

Bitcoin open interest is rising: +11.2K BTC with price up 3.9%. Fresh long leverage, not short covering, lifts BTC toward a bullish regime.

Stablecoin exchange netflow turned positive after 113 days of outflows but is already fading. SSR is easing yet still elevated. Neutral.

Bitcoin's Unified Sentiment Index cooled from 88 to 70 but stays in extreme greed - driven by Fear & Greed while votes and $77.6K price lag.

Long-term holder distribution rose to 282K BTC after the short squeeze as LTH MVRV hit 1.60. Can spot demand absorb the new supply?

Bitcoin open interest fell 3.8% while funding rates doubled since Friday - long bias is rising within shrinking OI, raising long-squeeze risk.

Bitcoin's MPI turned positive for the first time since February as miners resume selling, while fee revenue stays below 1% - 377 days now.

Bitcoin's 90-day realized profit/loss ratio crossed above 1 as unrealized losses fell from 18% to 7% easing stress that still needs confirmation.