A Conversation with Paul

Not investment advice. The war is moving markets and while I am not a military expert, I talk to them. Seth G. Jones is president of the Defense and Security Department and Harold Brown Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He served in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and U.S. Special Operations Command and has written widely on both Russia and Iran. Said differently,...

While journalists breathlessly report on a plane crash or a train derailment, they are silent on a more salient fact: about 1.2 million people will die this year in car crashes. Fortunately for future generations, most of these terrible drivers are going to be replaced by a computer. In fact, in a number of countries (Norway, UAE) that is already happening, and in the US, it will significantly occ...

I was traveling this week, so today is mostly sharing a podcast with Pedro Lopes, who created the remarkable series Gloria on Netflix. Regarding investments, I want to share a brief follow-up on last week's post about the impact of AI on labor. A fun fact: there are over 6 million jobs in the US tied to driving a vehicle of some sort, making up 5% of the workforce. While regulations and unions dis...

THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. INVESTING IS RISKY AND OFTEN PAINFUL. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. Last week at this time, investors and the world were wondering if an attack on Iran would spiral into a broader war. Since then, oil prices plunged nearly 20% (shown below), and the focus shifted to TALO. The White House criticized Canada for having the audacity to do to the US what China did—retaliate where...

THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. INVESTING IS RISKY AND OFTEN PAINFUL. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. This week, we learned a few things. First, we learned the big round of central bank easing is probably over. For assets in general (stocks and bonds) to go up, the total amount of printing (easing) needs to increase. While the Fed wasn’t easing, most other central banks were. This week, the Bank of Canada an...

THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. INVESTING IS RISKY AND OFTEN PAINFUL. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. A confluence of events caught my attention this week. Here’s what I noted: * The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court verbally intervened to defend the judiciary. * The Federal Reserve said they won’t raise rates if tariffs boost inflation, but they will cut them if tariffs hurt growth. * The April 2 deadline...

THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. INVESTING IS RISKY AND OFTEN PAINFUL. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. Today, I want to share a podcast, a China update, and discuss the D.C. fiscal/monetary standoff. Podcast Bill Bishop writes the Sinocism Substack. I find reading Bill’s missives helpful in keeping me on top of what is going on in China and wanted to hear his story, which I think you will find interesting as...

THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. INVESTING IS RISKY AND OFTEN PAINFUL. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. There are about 45,000 Russian casualties a month now in Ukraine. That equates to a rate of 540,000 soldiers per year or about 1% of Russia’s male, fighting-age population, thus the call to North Korea to supply troops. About 15% of Russia’s population died in World War 2, so today’s losses are modest in com...

Happy Friday! This is a fun interesting conversation. I originally posted it last month but due to how Substack is set up only a portion of you were able to hear it. So I am re-posting now for broader distribution. As we may be on the cusp of another major trade war, this conversation could not be more timely. Hamish is the President of Starbulk Carriers, which operates a fleet of boats that ship...

Inside and outside at the same time. That is the key. Richard Koo THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. INVESTING IS RISKY AND OFTEN PAINFUL. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. I read Richard Koo’s books years before I spoke to him, a conversation I share here. Richard is the first person I know to provide a comprehensive diagnosis for something evident across much of the world—weak borrowing. While many people have...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit paulpodolsky.substack.com China’s splendid isolation nurtured a particular Chinese self-perception. Chinese elites grew accustomed to the notion that China was unique—not just ‘a great civilization’ among others, but civilization itself. On China, Kissinger, 2011

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit paulpodolsky.substack.com Oops…looks like I didn’t send out the link to the actual podcast. Sorry about that. Here you go! We know the internet is simultaneously a recent invention, integrated into every niche of our lives, and difficult to understand fully. I like to anchor theoretical questions—how does the internet actually work?—in...

Note to readers: I am offering a sale this week. I started these posts as an experiment three years ago. They have now grown into a conversation with thousands of unpaid subscribers and hundreds of paid ones. I am grateful for each subscription. A service that started at $75 now costs $700 a year. If I could offer a sliding scale based on need, I would. But I can’t. So this week, I am lowering the...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit paulpodolsky.substack.com Summary: * Keep an eye on Serbia. * No US easing. More below: Over the weekend, the hard-right made gains in European Parliamentary voting. Last week, Senator Tuberville (R. Alabama) said Putin “doesn’t want Ukraine.” That extreme rightwing leaders are gaining even while we can see what the hard right looks lik...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit paulpodolsky.substack.com Man has always asked the question: what is it all about? J. Krishnamurti, 1969 Stories are intrinsic to being human, a survival mechanism. Some forms of story—poetry—can be created virtually for free and others—movie making—cost millions of dollars. But just because we need something, doesn’t mean it’s easy mon...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit paulpodolsky.substack.com “ In spite of all the farmer’s work and worry, he can’t reach down to where the seed is slowly transmuted into summer. The earth bestows. ” Rainer Maria Rilke, 1875-1926 The difference between the Soviet Union and the United States is the former repelled people and the latter attracted (and continues to attract...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit paulpodolsky.substack.com We hear about sanctions all the time. Biden just put more on China. Do they matter? If so, in what way? J provides a framework to help us all understand. This is J’s second appearance. In our conversation last year, here , you can hear J’s background and how he created his shipping advisory service, Value Inves...

Send us a Text Message. David is former CIA and the author of Damascus Station and Moscow X. Talking Trading - Expert trading tactics so you can excel in the sharemarket. This is how traders and investors excel. Listen on: Apple Podcasts   Spotify Support the Show. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit paulpodolsky...

Send us a Text Message. Barton is trained as an accountant and equity investor. We all know how much tech is driving the stock market. He sheds light on how to make sense of what is going on.  Talking Trading - Expert trading tactics so you can excel in the sharemarket. This is how traders and investors excel. Listen on: Apple Podcasts   Spotify Support the Show. This is a public episode. If you w...

Send us a Text Message. Jim returns to the show to share his perspective on Ukraine, the border and the November election.  Talking Trading - Expert trading tactics so you can excel in the sharemarket. This is how traders and investors excel. Listen on: Apple Podcasts   Spotify Support the Show. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bon...

Send us a Text Message. Jason is an accountant, fluent Chinese speaker and Wall Street veteran. I always learn from my talks with Jason and I think you will too.  Talking Trading - Expert trading tactics so you can excel in the sharemarket. This is how traders and investors excel. Listen on: Apple Podcasts   Spotify Support the Show. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with...

Send us a Text Message. Ivan is a renowned college sports journalist and the father of three, one of whom took his own life. It's a terrifying story and one we all need to hear.  Talking Trading - Expert trading tactics so you can excel in the sharemarket. This is how traders and investors excel. Listen on: Apple Podcasts   Spotify Support the Show. This is a public episode. If you would like...

Send us a Text Message. Scott Nelson is the Georgia Athletic Association Professor of History at the University of Georgia and an expert in the history of commodities. In this podcast he shares the history of grain and the impact on Ukraine, global commerce and Russia. Talking Trading - Expert trading tactics so you can excel in the sharemarket. This is how traders and investors excel. Listen on:...

Send us a Text Message. Page is the Director of the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies and Harold Brown Professor of US National and Security Policy at Columbia University. She is an expert in how wars begin and end. Talking Trading - Expert trading tactics so you can excel in the sharemarket. This is how traders and investors excel. Listen on: Apple Podcasts   Spotify Support the Show. T...

Send us a Text Message. Remy is a comedian and YouTube star. His father emigrated from Iraq and his mother from Lebanon and some of his humor is Arab-centric.  Talking Trading - Expert trading tactics so you can excel in the sharemarket. This is how traders and investors excel. Listen on: Apple Podcasts   Spotify Support the Show. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with ot...