ITR Economics

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down a week of mixed economic data and what it could mean for interest rates and the Federal Reserve’s next moves. GDP was revised higher, while the latest labor market data showed signs of weakness. For business leaders trying to plan around borrowing costs, hiring, and economic growth, the challenge is separating meanin...

What $40 Trillion in U.S. Debt Means for the 2030 Downturn | TrendsTalk by ITR Economics

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker examines why the 10-year Treasury yield has reached 5.2%, its highest level since 2007, and what rising bond yields could mean for interest rates, borrowing costs, and financial markets. She also discusses hawkish Federal Reserve commentary, stronger economic data, and why persistent inflation may keep pressure on the Fed to rai...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain examines how AI investment, data center construction, and semiconductor production are driving US economic growth. With many legacy manufacturing markets remaining flat and additional weakness expected in 2027, where can businesses find opportunities to diversify and grow? Tune in for the data shaping the outlook. 📊 Trends Repo...

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker explains why the Federal Reserve’s latest 25-basis-point rate hike could mark the beginning of a broader rate-raising cycle. With borrowing costs creating challenges for rate-sensitive businesses, Lauren examines persistent inflation, the Fed’s outlook, and the signals leaders should watch when planning for 2027 and beyond. Is y...

TT 9.14.26 Audio by ITR Economics

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Michael Feuz guest hosts to break down the latest August inflation numbers, shifting rate hike expectations, and what the Fed may do next. With businesses facing uncertainty around borrowing costs, consumer strength, and inflation pressure from AI CapEx, energy prices, tariffs, and money supply growth, Michael explains why a rate hike may not solve...

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar examines why expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike shifted following Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. For business leaders navigating uncertain borrowing costs and weakness in housing and agriculture, Connor breaks down the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target, elevated PCE inflation, and the difference between hea...

2026 Inflation Outlook: Rising Input Costs Squeeze Margins | TrendsTalk by ITR Economics

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar examines what cooler PCE inflation could mean for the Federal Reserve’s September interest rate decision. He also explores July’s sharp home sales decline and why elevated Treasury yields and mortgage rates continue to squeeze rate-sensitive businesses. Which inflation measure should Fed policymakers trust when deciding whether to hold...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain explains why the outlook for commercial construction is improving as we move toward 2027. While many sectors remain below year-ago levels, leading indicators are strengthening, and ITR Economics expects growth across every commercial construction vertical covered in the Trends Report next year. Which sectors could see the strong...

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar examines the Treasury’s move to increase buybacks of long-term US bonds as rising yields and mortgage rates put renewed pressure on the housing market. With single-family housing starts posting a historically sharp June-to-July decline and mortgage rates moving closer to 7%, businesses are facing another reminder of how higher borrowin...

Data Center Demand Is Fueling Growth in Power Generation | TrendsTalk by ITR Economics

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar breaks down the latest CPI report and what it could mean for the Fed’s September rate decision. Inflation delivered a “Goldilocks” reading, but for businesses and consumers waiting for clearer direction on interest rates, the outlook remains far from settled. Connor also examines continued weakness in the housing market, shifting marke...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain is joined by Senior Economist and Consultant Tara Bayke to examine the health of the US consumer. Retail sales continue to grow, but a closer look reveals a widening divide between income groups as essential costs and credit card pressures affect consumers differently. What does this K-shaped economy mean for businesses over the...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain examines where global industrial production is growing today and why today's strongest-performing economies may not be the best strategic locations for the decade ahead. Learn which regions are expected to improve through 2026, which face increasing challenges, and what global businesses should consider when planning for the 203...

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar breaks down the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady and why Chairman Kevin Warsh says it's time for markets to "play the ball, not the referee." As businesses continue navigating inflation uncertainty, slowing economic growth, and pressure on consumers, what should leaders actually be paying attention to? Connor ex...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain explains how different sectors are moving through the business cycle and what that means for your business in 2027. While parts of the economy continue to grow, leading indicators suggest conditions are changing. Learn why relying on today's momentum could lead to costly planning mistakes and what businesses should focus on inst...

his week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar previews next week's Federal Reserve meeting and explains why renewed geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and higher Treasury yields could reshape expectations for interest rates. As markets adjust to fresh inflation risks, what should business leaders and decision-makers be watching now? If you're trying to understand how today's...

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the latest CPI and PPI reports and explains why cooler inflation headlines do not necessarily mean interest rate cuts are back on the table. Learn why falling energy prices are distorting the data, what businesses should actually be watching, and how inflation is affecting consumers differently across the economy. If...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain examines which US states are best positioned from a fiscal resiliency standpoint and why that matters for your business strategy. Rising debt, pension obligations, and long term fiscal health could play a major role in determining where opportunities emerge as we move toward the 2030 downturn. If your business depends on governm...

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down what the June jobs report is really telling us about the U.S. economy and why the headlines may not reflect the full story. She also examines the Supreme Court's decision in the Lisa Cook case, what it means for Federal Reserve independence, and why the outcome could shape future monetary policy. If you're trying to...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain sits down with Managing Director Grace Schatz to discuss new research ranking which US states are best positioned for long-term economic success. Whether you're considering expansion, deciding where to invest, or planning your sales strategy, understanding regional economic resilience could become a competitive advantage. Which...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain explains what a K-shaped economy really means and why some industries are accelerating while others continue to struggle. Learn which sectors are on the "upper end of the K," which markets are lagging behind, and why understanding these trends can help businesses make smarter strategic decisions. 📊 Trends Report Free Preview →...

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down what looked like a strong GDP report and explains why the headline doesn't tell the whole story. Consumer spending weakened, inflation accelerated, and the latest PCE data may have significantly changed the outlook for interest rates. If your business is waiting for lower borrowing costs or trying to plan for the mon...