The Morning Market Briefing

Andrew, Tom, and Ben dive into the comments from Jay Powell, the implications of those comments, and our view of their validity. They also discuss Biden’s plans to increase biofuel requirements for oil refiners, earnings news from Costco, Sales Force, Snowflake, and Okta, as well as some positive news on Eli Lilly’s Alzheimer’s drug. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning...

Ben, Andrew, and Tom discuss the easing (but still elevated) Eurozone inflation data, the upcoming meeting for OPEC+ and the expectation that they keep production steady, Jay Powell’s upcoming speech regarding the economic outlook and labor markets, the increase in government backed mortgage loan limits, strong holiday spending data, and tough earnings reports out of a number of SAAS companies as...

Tom and Ben discuss China's COVID protocol again, as it continues to have an impact on the markets due to the slowing of production in many areas within the country. Currently the oil supply seems to be on the rebound somewhat around the world. Unions around the US seem to be unhappy, despite the Biden administration's focus on that as a running platform, with a railroad strike inevitable soon. Fo...

Ben, Tom, and Andrew discuss the protests in China as their COVID restrictions have caused severe tensions with civilians. The FTC filed an anti-monopoly lawsuit regarding Microsoft's purchase of Activision. Black Friday sales show numbers of varying sorts, but overall, the reality was much higher than expectations. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit...

Tom and Andrew discuss Elon's Twitter employment agreement, which required employees to commit to being all-in if they want to continue working for Twitter next Monday. Amazon reports that they will extend their layoffs into next year, plans to lay off near 10,000 employees overall. Carvana is continuing to find themselves in hot water, as it appears they are continually unable to service their de...

Andrew takes on the morning call alone this morning. He discusses Christine Lagarde's upcoming address that will discuss the continued acceleration of CPI in the European Union. Jim Bullard has comments coming today regarding the effectiveness of the FED's rate hikes on inflation. Considerable time was spent discussing the positive retail earnings reports (despite Target missing the mark), as well...

Tom and Harrison discuss the Russian-made missle hitting Poland, killing two - speculation is that the missle was actually fired from Ukraine towards Russia, as they also use Russian-made missles. UK inflation accelerates again, and Esther George believes slowing inflation would require sending the economy into recession. Trump announced his 2024 run for president, and the Senate passes a vote to...

Ben, Tom, and Andrew discuss PPI numbers as they reflect a positive move regarding inflation and the future of the economy. Big retail earnings released from Q3 - HD down 2.6% and WMT flat. Bank of America Fund Manager Survey reveals that managers are ultra bearish with cash level at their highest level since the "dot-com" bubble. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at...

Tom and Ben brave the onset of winter weather to discuss an economy and consumer that may be overreaching to “one data point” on inflation and the implications for interest rates, OPEC+ dropping its demand outlook by 520k bpd, and a big week ahead including a PPI print as well as earnings out of HD, CSCO, NVDA, and TGT. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, v...

Tom and Ben discuss yesterday’s strong market rally (S&P up nearly 6%), the movement of oil prices and the factors influencing those changes, Amazon’s cost cutting, Elon Musk addressing Twitter employees, and updates to the Student Loan Forgiveness outlook. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-briefings...

Tom and Ben discuss CPI reportings as the economy sees a favorable number for inflation. Stocks soared as investors seem to have very positive sentiment for the CPI reports and the state of inflation. Biden confirms another presidential campaign for 2024. Earnings reports from some large companies set to come next week. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, v...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss election results, as the "red wave" was clearly a mis-forecast episode for the 2022 mid-terms. With a higher than anticipated Democractic win in the Senate, policy change could have an easier road ahead with a Dem administration and Senate. Meta continues to make news negatively as they are planning to lay of 11,000 works (13% of their total) in the coming weeks. For i...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss mid-term elections that are of particular interest to them. They go on to discuss the implications of a few swing state Senatorial votes. Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia were topics of discussion considering how impactful those states could be for policy changes in the US moving forward. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30...

Ben and Tom discuss China's "Zero-Covid" Policy and its impact on the global market, primarily the slowing of Apple's production of new iPhones. Meta plans large-scale layoffs, and Apple released a short, somewhat odd press release blaming the city of Zhangzhou, and their Covid policy, on the slowing iPhone production. Berkshire Hathway saw negative EPS, and Buffet released a somewhat odd statemen...

Tom and Ben discuss a mixed bag of earnings reports as signs of stress are continuing to show throughout the economy. Several large companies have announced another round of hiring freezes and layoffs, including Amazon, Apple, Lyft, Qualcomm, and Twitter. Jobs reports showed bad news as employment was down from last report. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 ES...

Tom and Ben discuss the release of economic data showing an apparent slowing of the economy. Qualcomm notes that smartphone sales are down nearly 8% as Costco sees monthly sales begin to decelerate. Refined oil sees their lowest inventories since 2014, and the future of the reserve supply isn't exactly certain. FED meeting recap creates another push of lowered senitment in the market as the rate h...

Ben and Tom discuss earnings updates from AMD, as they've seen a positive quarter of business. A few earnings reports from some staple entities, CLX and MDLZ, also show positive signs of improvement. Economic data shows that jobless claims are up and manufacturing is down. With the FED meeting upcoming, the expectation is for another 75 bps hike with another potential 50-75 bps rate hike in Decemb...

Ben and Tom discuss earnings updates from several companies, notably UBER beating expectations and JNJ doing very well. A few tech stocks faired well as the market continues to be turbulent - NXPI up and ANET flat. Pharma continues to do well, and energy markets appear to be headed towards furthered growth as well. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit...

Ben and Tom discuss the FED's commentary about disliking the continued growth of the market, due to inflationary concerns. Euro area continues to see inflation grow month over month. Lula wins the Brazilian presidency, and earnings reports continue to flow in throughout this week. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog...

Ben, Andrew, and Tom discuss this morning’s Bloomberg article squashing the notion that the Fed will pivot from their rate hike strategy, a steadying in the most recent PCE print, the completion of the acquisition of twitter by Elon Musk, Elliot Management increasing its stake in Swedish Match, a number of earnings reports headlined by a great quarter from AAPL and a very disappointing quarter fro...

Ben, Andrew, and Tom discuss incoming economic data, the mixed bag these results are for the Fed, the 0.75% rate hike out of the ECB, the joint venture between Japan Tobacco and Altria in the heated tobacco space, earnings out of a number of big companies including the disastrous results from META, upcoming earnings from AAPL, AMZN, INTC, and PXD, and many more big earnings to come. For informatio...

Ben and Tom discuss new British PM Rishi Sunak, Meta’s continued struggles with Apple, the Saudi’s desire to drive oil prices higher, some signs of weakening revealed in the earnings reports of MSFT, TXN, and GOOG, and a surprisingly optimistic report out of Visa. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-bri...

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the EV car market as GM and other auto manufacturers are seeing positive signs. The housing market continues to take a tumble as builders are walking from land options and housing contracts continue to see growing cancellations. Earnings reports continue as some are seeing green while other are continuing to follow a red trendline. For information on how to join the Zo...

Ben, Tom, and Andrew discuss sentiment in the market with the potential of a lessened rate hike to 50bps in December, noted in an article by Nick Timiraos in the WSJ. Japan fights to keep the Yen from weakening further, as it continues to slide. Boris Johnson removes himself from the PM elections in the UK. Xi Jinping will continue as the leader of China for an 'unprecedented' 3rd term, the longes...

Andrew and Ben discuss the resignation of Liz Truss, following an incredibly short tenure at the helm of the UK. Her replacement is set to be put in place quite quickly, as her successor (yet to be named) will begin in 7 days. Elon Musk's acquistion of Twitter is under fire again, as he outlines a bleak future for the current function of the company as he takes over. Earnings reports continue to e...